Sonny Gray’s Fantasy Value The Rest of 2013

Yesterday Sonny Gray dominated the Houston Astros, striking out nine in eight innings yesterday in Oakland. In 18 innings he has 20 strikeouts and only five walks. Gray began the year in triple-a, playing in an hitter’s friendly league league, but a pitcher friendly ballpark. In triple-a he had a 24 percent strikeout rate and a eight percent walk rate along with a 3.42 ERA.

Gray features a mid 90s fastball and has touched 96 mph (in the majors) … he’s touched higher in the minors. His best secondary pitch is the 12-to-6 power curveball that is a legit bat misser; in the preseason Jason Parks at Baseball Prospectus said the curveball was at least a plus pitch and could be better. Having plus fastball and plus curveball is a great starter kit for a solid number three starter, but I have my reservations. Even though his fastball has plus velocity, his command can be loose at times and can be very straight, which is a recipe for a disaster for starting pitchers. Also, he’s basically a two pitcher; he’s thrown the fastball and curveball 89 percent of the time. He also throws a changeup and slider, but either of them haven’t been more than a show me pitch. If he’s going to stay in the rotation long term he’s going to need to find a third pitch.

Based on all that, Sonny Gray is a must own in every format. I think he’s going to stay in the rotation because Brett Anderson is going into the bullpen and Tommy Milone is finally pitching in triple-a. He pitches in a great pitchers park and the A’s will only play seven games (out of 27) against teams with a record better than .500 in September so he’ll have a great opportunity to earn wins or at least have favorable matchups the rest of the year. Based on his repertoire of pitches he’s not going to maintain a 28.6 percent strikeout rate, but he should be able to around the 20-22 percent mark, the minimum needed to be a solid fantasy starter the rest of 2013. For owners in dynasty formats, Gray will be in the rotation, behind Jarrod Parker, Dan Staily, A.J. Griffin and maybe Brett Anderson. Gray’s fantasy upside is a top 40 starting pitcher, but he’s most likely going to be a streaming option.

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