Below are my initial hitter and pitcher rankings & projections for the 2019 season. You can find the Google Doc here.

Please note: these are raw rankings; I have not baked in position scarcity yet. Also, for the projections I assumed players would have full playing time. I assumed if a season was played 1,000 times what would the average be for each player. In terms of starting pitchers I haven’t decided how many innings starting pitchers will most likely pitch. In the past I used 190 but I’m leaning towards 170.

These rankings are not completely finished (they’re never completely finished) and they will change. If you have any questions or if you would like to ask me any questions about my projections you reach out to me via Twitter.

Do You Want To Win?

Below are the stats for two players. Which player is more valuable in a 12-team mixed redraft league for 2021? Assume they’re the same position.

It’s too close to call? Okay. How about these two players? Assume they’re the same position.

If you don’t know which players are more valuable then the odds of you winning your league is no better than 8.3% (1/12= 0.083). To be frank, if you can’t rank the players then you’re either speculating or playing for fun.

You’ll notice I didn’t mention how to value the players. Everyone has their own measures on how to value players, but whatever system you have has to be consistently applied to every hitter in the draft pool.

Remember, you’re drafting statistical output. Nothing more. If you’re not measuring each players projected output and ranking them accordingly then you’re speculating in your drafts. And like with investing, when you speculate your outcomes are almost entirely driven by luck or chance.

My advice to you is to figure how much one stolen base is worth. One home run. One win and so on. For a great way to achieve I recommend Winning Fantasy Baseball.