DFS/Streamer Picks for Monday

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played. The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup.

With a short slate and not very many starting pitcher options I’m going to keep this somewhat brief. I like to play in GPPs and with a slate like Monday’s it’s important to be contrarian. Everyone is going to use Jimmy Nelson today for two reasons: 1) the Phillies matchup and 2) the low salary $6,600. I wrote about Nelson a few days ago and how his statistics are very contradictory. Also, a lot of “experts” are recommending him as the best option so if you want to make real money you cannot use Nelson. Maybe I’m over thinking it and not as many people will use him. If was I playing in a cash game I would use Nelson because even if he blows up it won’t hurt your team because everyone’s team will be effected.

In regards to CJ Wilson, he costs too much, the matchup is neutral and doesn’t have the upside of other pitchers. Also, since he is the most expensive he will likely be used a lot of fantasy owners

Mike Bolsinger gets the Diamondbacks in Arizona. He definitely has strikeout upside, but he walks a lot of batters so runners will be on-base a lot and most importantly, it will not allow him to pitch deep into the game. Also, the Dodgers don’t allow him to throw more than 90 pitches. He’s a pass for me.

Last week I did a blind resume with Clay Buchholz and I said he was a must start against the Orioles and he proceeded to pitch a great game. The reason why I’m luke warm about using him is his price is a little high considering the matchup. The Blue Jays, at home, have the second best wOBA and the best hard hit rate in the majors. Buchholz’s hard hit rate 15.9 percent is the 21st best in the majors among qualified starting pitchers so it’s possible he could have a great game. He’s one of the three pitchers I’m considering, but I’m leaning towards two others (below).¬† *Please read to the end of the piece because I haven’t decided who my two pitchers will be yet.

Originally I was planning on using Nathan Karns for two reasons. The first is Vegas had the Indians-Rays game as the lowest over/under today. The second, in his last ten starts he has a 22 percent strikeout rate and 7.6 percent walk rate (with a 2.54 ERA and 1.218 WHIP). He’s an above average ground ball pitcher, but he allows a lot hard contact (19.7 percent). He’s been a much better pitcher on the road than at home so he has not benefited from the ballpark (yet). Instead, he’s probably benefited from a really good defense and luck. If you look at his past ten starts he’s pitched very well; his two worst starts came, oddly, against the Angels in a seven day span.

Cody Anderson will probably be overlooked because he’s only had one start in the majors and was not a highly touted prospect. I love his price point, the matchup and skill set. He doesn’t have huge upside, but at his price point ($5,700) he doesn’t need to. If he scores 15-17 points he’s still providing a slightly positive ROI. I believe the odds of him doing so are just as high as other higher priced pitchers.

Conclusion

Cody Anderson will be my number one pitcher and I still have not decided on Nathan Karns or Clay Buchholz. I’m leaning towards Karns because with so many good hitting matchups I may want to load up on premium hitters. If Buchholz was $500 cheaper it would be a no brainer to use him. I’ll know who my second starting pitcher after my afternoon run. Check out my Twitter for who I choose.

Posted in Fantasy Baseball | Leave a comment

Steven Matz’s 2015 Fantasy Value

Before I talk about what I saw in Steven Matz’s Major League debut it has become extremely apparent how foolish and comical it has been to keep Matz and Noah Syndergaard in the minors in favor to keep Dillon Gee and Jonathan Niese in the rotation. If the Mets’ primary objective was winning they should’ve put Gee in the minors and Niese in the bullpen after the first month of the season. If I’m a Mets fan I’m extremely mad at the front office for allowing their loyalties to their veterans cloud their judgement (it’s also very possible the front office has no idea what they are doing in regards to the Major League roster and they’re making judgements at the hip).

Clearly I liked what I saw from Matz, but the biggest problem is the hype train is going to get out of hand because the focus is going to be what he did at the plate rather than how he pitched.

To begin the game he was clearly pressing and looked nervous. He threw three straight balls to Brandon Phillips, the leadoff hitter, then when he threw a strike right down the middle (a fastball) he tattooed for a home run. After the first inning he regained his composure. The fastball looked good; the velocity was routinely in the 93-96 mph range and he was able to sustain the velocity at the end of the game. What was most impressive about the fastball was he threw consistently inside to righties. He has two secondary pitches: curveball and changeup. Both can miss bats on both sides of the plate, but they’re average to above average offerings. At least 6-8 times the Reds real hitters (Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier) all took awkward swings against the secondary pitches and Matz made them look foolish.

His scouting report suggests he has really good command, but he didn’t show it for most of the day on Sunday. In the middle of the game he was only throwing strikes 55 percent of the time but as the game wore on he pounded the strike zone (and probably got more comfortable).

Last year he only threw 140 innings and I cannot see the Mets allowing him to throw more than 170-180 this year, but as I said earlier who knows what the Mets are thinking and what they’re going to do. My best guess is he throws 175 innings. After his start on Sunday he’s thrown 98 innings so he only has 77 innings left, which is about 10-14 starts left. Like any young pitcher he is going to be highly variable from start to start, but he’s going to have more good outings than bad ones.

If you’re in a league with FAAB I wouldn’t blow all my money to get him because of the inconsistency, but since he pitches in the NL East he’s going to have a lot of favorable matchups. Based on how well Matz pitched I can’t see the Mets sending him back to the minors any time soon. He should be owned in all formats because in the shallowest of leagues he’s going to be a very good streaming option very often.

Posted in Fantasy Baseball | Leave a comment

Fantasy Baseall Starting Pitcher Rankings: Week 13

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

I was light with the pitcher analysis this week because I’m writing DFS pitcher rankings every day and I feel like I would just be repeating myself. My DFS rankings actually provide good write-ups about how well/poorly a pitcher is performing in general. Check out my Twitter account for links to my DFS rankings for the past few days.

This week marks the return of two pitchers¬† from TJ surgeries (Jose Fernandez and Matt Moore) and two established pitchers (Matt Cain and Ervin Santana) making their Major League debut. In general I’m very cautious with pitchers coming off injury. I prefer to take a wait and see approach before I start them. Odds are if you own Fernandez you’re going to use him because his upside is extremely high and if you’ve waited this long it’s too tempting to leave him on the bench.

I wrote a full write-up on Andrew Heaney’s 2015 Major League debut.

The reason why I have A.J. Burnett rated so low because he’s facing the Tigers and it looks like Victor Martinez could be back to his 2014 (albeit in a very small sample size). The reason for the “low” rank is due to the lack of upside. Odds are he’ll provide a quality start, but there’s a big opportunity for a blow up start where he gives up more than five runs.

Posted in Fantasy Baseball | Leave a comment