Covering Fantasy Baseball & Football

Like most baseball enthusiasts I watched Zack Wheeler pitch against the Braves. He has an easy delivery and hides the ball well. In the first inning his fastball sat in the upper 90s (97-98 mph), but after that inning it sat 95-96 mph. The fastball has good late movement and has a lot of late life. The biggest concern I had was the lack of command of all of his pitches (fastball, slider, changeup and curveball); it looked as though he wasn’t closing his front shoulder in his delivery. According to Jason Parks at Baseball Prospectus he rated the curveball as plus pitch with “heavy depth/tight rotation.” Yesterday the slider looked like the best pitch as he was able to throw it for strikes more often. Both the slider and curveball flashed plus, but he was never able to command them; the heat map of the pitch frequency can be found below. Overall, he has the raw ingredients to be a number one starter, but he’s far from being that guy right now. For fantasy, he’s a top 50-55 starting pitcher so he should be added in all leagues. Remember, he plays on one of the worst teams in the league and will likely not receive a lot of run support. If you own him, I suggest trading for him for a top 20-30 starting pitcher because that is the perceived value of him right now among a good portion of the fantasy community.

Tom Wilhelmsen at Baseball Prospectus Wheeler’s best secondary offering is the curveball, which has an opportunity to be a 7 pitch (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with “heavy depth/tight rotation.” His best secondary pitch was the slider as he was able to throw more strikes with it. Overall, the slider and curveball flashed a lot of promise, but most of the time they were not thrown for strikes consistently, which is why he had five walks. In the last 2-3 innings the hitters were looking for fastballs and started to time the fastball, which limited his effectiveness. Basically, he’s not a finished product and has a long ways to go before he starts to dominate or be very good. In terms of his fantasy value I don’t know if he’ll stay in the rotation because after the game the Mets optioned him to Triple-A; the Mets broadcasters noted that it’s possible that since he’s the 26th player he could still be eligible to take his next turn with the Mets on Tuesday. Assuming he’s in the majors the rest of the year I would say he’s a top 50-55 pitcher, which means he should be added in all formats. If I owned him, I would trade him because I bet you could get a top 20-30 pitcher for him. blew another lead, allowing a home run to Albert Pujols. In the tenth inning Yoervis Medina saved the game. Wilhelmsen is not the closer and the incumbent closer, Carter Capps has pitched like crap so it looks as though the Mariners are going to go with a closer by committee. If I was going to own a Mariners reliever in the short term I would want Oliver Perez; for the rest of the year I want Wilhelmsen.

Lastly, I want to talk about Esmil Rogers of the Toronto Blue Jays. With the Blue Jays desperate for starting pitching, they’ve allowed Rogers to make three starts: Rangers, @Rangers and Rockies. In this small sample he has a 2.04 ERA, 0.85 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 18.2 percent and has only walked four batters in 17.2 innings. Normally most analysts may chalk this up to a small sample size, but Rogers looks to be legit. Before he entered the starting rotation, Rogers learned a two-seam fastball/power sinker; it’s thrown in the low, to mid-90s with excellent movement, good depth and heavy sink, which allows him to get on the hands of right handed batters and to pitch away to lefties; this allows him to generate a lot of weak contact and ground balls (51 percent ground ball rate). He’s most likely available in all formats and he’s a must add in all formats.

Francisco Liriano finally allowed his first home run of the year. In fact he allowed two home runs last night. This start was not as dominant as his previous starts as he left a lot of fastballs in the middle of of the zone. His night could have been worse if it wasn’t for an outstanding play by Starling Marte in the third and Shin-Soo Choo getting caught stealing in the first inning. Overall, his command wasn’t very good and he didn’t generate a lot of swings and misses. For the season he has the second best swing and miss rate (32.4 percent) in the majors, but is also walking batters 9.3 percent of the time, which puts him in the bottom 15 percent of the league. I do not like pitchers who have control issues because they’re extremely unpredictable. If you own him, sell high.

Now let’s talk about some positive news. Josh Johnson pitched 7.1 innings and recorded ten strikeouts against the Rockies. He achieved a lot of those strikeouts by challenging hitters with fastballs up in the zone. Speaking of the fastball, he threw it and the cutter on both sides of the plate effectively. The slider looked good as he threw it down and in to lefties and down away from righties (same location). His next starts are against offensive juggernauts Orioles, Red Sox and Tigers so you’re going to be using him any time soon. I’m not a believer that he’s “back”, but if he’s available in your league, add him because his upside is immense.

Adeiny Hechavarria can really pick it at shortstop. I haven’t had a chance to see him play that much because it’s the Marlins, but he made at least four plays that saved hitters from getting hits. He has good range and body control with a good arm. For fantasy he shouldn’t be owned except for a NL-only league. Jacob Turner pitched in this game and I was not impressed as his command was loose the entire game and wasn’t missing enough bats to compensate. For the season he’s almost at a ten percent walk rate, which like I mentioned with Liriano, is something I stay away from. Turner should be owned only in NL-only leagues.

These matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning to help fantasy baseball owners plan their week. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found be found at Through the Fence Baseball.

Top Starters

Additional Information: It looks as though Clay Buchholz is fully recovered from the irritated AC joint and neck stiffness, and he should be added to your starting lineup. Supposing Stephen Strasburg comes off the DL on Sunday (June 16), he is expected to start this week against the Rockies. With Troy Tulowitzki on the DL for four to six weeks, the Rockies lineup is going to be Carlos Gonzalez, two young, unproven prospects (Josh Rutledge and Nolan Arenado) and a lot of fringe average offensive players; the Rockies are now a great stream option when they are on the road.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: In his last nine starts, Rick Porcello has a 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 25.6 percent strikeout rate and 4.6 percent walk rate. Porcello is a top 30-35 starting pitcher the rest of the year. Shockingly, Bartolo Colon is only owned in 80.6 percent of ESPN leagues. Colon doesn’t strike anyone out, but he’s the perfect companion pitcher for high strikeout, poor WHIP pitchers (I’m looking at you Ryan Dempster). After a brief rough patch in late April, Jose Fernandez has a 2.42 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 27.4 percent walk rate. With Logan Morrison and Giancarlo Stanton back in the Marlins lineup, Fernandez may have an opportunity to pitch with a lead and earn more wins.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: Dan Straily has looked great in his last five starts, recording a 2.20 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. The biggest adjustment he’s made is he’s no longer trying to strike everyone out; he has a 16.3 percent strikeout rate in that time frame compared to 23.1 percent to begin the year. Instead, he’s following Colon’s lead and throwing a lot of strikes, nearly 70 percent of them. Tyler Chatwood, only owned in 9 percent of ESPN leagues, is a must stream in all formats. The Nationals have the third lowest OPS in the league (ahead of the Mets and Marlins). Corey Kluber is only owned in 2 percent of ESPN leagues despite striking out 24.5 percent of batters and only walking 5 percent of batters. If he’s available, go get him.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: The big name on this list is Zack Wheeler. The Braves strikeout the most of any team in the majors, so I couldn’t think of a better opportunity to showcase his plus stuff. In his last four starts, Ubaldo Jimenez has a 2.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20.6 percent strikeout rate and 12.4 percent walk rate. Those numbers are not overly impressive but, he achieved those numbers @Texas, @Detroit, @Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. With two great matchups against the Royals and the Twins, Jimenez is worth the roll of the dice if you’re looking for a strikeout infusion for your team. However, Doug Thorburn recently wrote his posture is still very bad and is causing him to lose his release point. Hector Santiago has pitched great, but he’s facing the Royals who have the 10th highest OPS against lefties. Jordan Lyles has pitched very well in his last six starts, but he’s not as good as the 1.67 ERA and 1.09 WHIP would indicate. In those six starts he’s faced the Mariners, Rockies, Pirates, Angels and the Royals twice; not exactly the best offenses in the majors. Lyles doesn’t have overly impressive stuff, but has plus (on the scouting scale) command of the fastball (sits at 89-92 mph) and command of his other three pitches (change-up, slider and curveball). A profile like his is not a profile of a pitcher you want on your fantasy team because he doesn’t miss enough bats, and his performance from start to start are more difficult to predict.

Avoid

Additional Information: You may have noticed Matt Moore is not in my top 101. In his last nine starts he has a 6.38 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 12 percent walk rate and only a 14.7 percent strikeout rate. Those peripherals look like they belong to a fifth starter, not the best prospect in 2012 according to Baseball Prospectus. What’s most bothersome about Moore’s performance has been the decrease in his fastball velocity (two mph) compared to last year. I’m not starting him until he puts together a string of good starts.