The original analysis of the draft can be found here.
Below are the standings:
The image below shows my draft picks and where they finished the year at their primary position. The cells in green are the players I made a meaningful profit from. Murakami had to be counted at first base but he played third base for me all year.
Analysis
According to my rough estimates I only made a meaningful profit on 15 (50%) of my picks. You may think I didn’t make a profit with Witt but the fact he provided very good value. When drafting in the top 3-4 rounds protecting the downside is more important than upside. The fact he missed 20 games and still finished 32nd overall is a profit.
The biggest stand out is raking in huge gains with Detmers, Baker and Burns. I remember in the draft I didn’t want Burns but he fell 20-40 picks below his ADP and I modified my plan and selected him.
In the preseason I projected Moreno to hit .281 with 16 homers and 75 RBI and 70 runs and 2 SB. He basically did exactly that but with 30 points more in the batting average. Sometimes you get lucky. He probably hits .285 next year but people will draft him thinking he’s a .295 hitter.
Wood was my 21st hitter overall but his ADP had him 38th. There was batting average risk but his hard hit rates were elite and he was hitting in a very good lineup. The biggest question is will he steal 20 bases again. I’ll probably hedge and project 15.
Every time I try to find cheap power it rarely works out. For cheap power I liked Spencer Torkelson, Munetaka Murakami, Willy Adames, Jake Burger, Kyle Manzardo, Daulton Varsho, Jac Caglianone, Matt Chapman and Ezequiel Tovar. Of the nine players only two delivered.
Random note: Chandler Simpson finished the year as the 21st outfielder but did he really provide 21st value? I would say because a team would have had to have two 40-home run hitters to augment the zero home runs.
This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.
I had the 4th pick. This analysis was written on March 28, 2026 and I realized I never posted the article.
My Team
Player Analysis
Julio Rodriguez was my clear 4th pick. It feels like he’s 28-29 years old but he’s still only 25 years old and this is easily the best offensive supporting cast he’s ever had. For his entire career he has started off slow in the first half and ramped up production in the second half. What if he puts it all together?
I normally do not take pitching in the second round but the pitchers after Christopher Sanchez had too many flags. Sanchez’s velo ticked up last year and the velo was the same in Spring Training. After the top 3 starters Sanchez was the clear #4 starter because of the elite command and the very good health grade.
Edwin Diaz was selected because he was the best closer available. My plan was to take a closer at this pick and catchers in the next two rounds.
William Contreras was my #2 catcher. I think his “down” year last year was due to fractured middle finger that he played through.
Shea Langeliers was my #3 catcher. This is a guy who has gotten better every year for the 3 years. Also, he plays in the best hitters home ballpark.
I think Jackson Merrill’s true talent is more like the 2024 season rather than the 2025. Could he steal 20 bases? Yes. However, I only projected 14.
Originally I wanted to take Dylan Cease here but he was taken. I decided to pivot and take Daniel Palencia, the last closer I considered safe. By safe I mean he is good enough to keep his job all year because he has the true talent and there’s no one else really pushing to take his job. (I actually prepared for not taking Cease and my plan was to target MacKenzie Gore late; obviously Gore isn’t as good as Cease but he can be really good if he’s paired with low WHIP pitchers).
I think a change of scenery will do wonders for Luis Robert. He had a MVP fantasy season in 2023 but if you average out his last two seasons he’s hit 14 home runs and 28 stolen bases in about 105 games. If he can play 140 games I can see a 20/40 season.
I considered Jose Altuve to be a low upside, high floor player. Originally I was going to take Brandon Lowe later in the draft but not getting Cease meant I had to reorder my picks. I projected Altuve for a 20/10 season with a .269 batting average.
Willy Adames should bounce back. I’m weary of taking players in the first year after signing a big contract. Even with a down year he had a 108 WRC+. He will also hit behind Rafeal Devers all year. I think Adames hits .240 with 25-30 homers and 10 stolen bases.
I was a big believer in Ryan Pepiot last year and I’m still a big believer. I think the Market is undercounting how much he should see an improvement no longer playing in a triple-a bam box as a home ballpark.
Shota Imanaga’s velo was up in the Spring. He won’t be as good as he was in 2024 and he’s a two-pitch pitcher to both sides of the plate, but he has a career WHIP of 1.01 and he pairs well with Gore. His velo was down in 2025 but how much of it was due to his hamstring injury? His velo was up in the Spring so I’m banking on a return to form; also, he only signed for one-year.
Like I mentioned earlier; I was targeting MacKenzie Gore to get high strikeouts with a questionable WHIP. Gore struggled a lot in the second half of the season. How much of a factor did the decline in fastball velocity have? According to his latest velo numbers he’s sitting at 96 mph, the same velocity he had at the start of 2025.
Jake Burger got unlucky with the HR/FB rate last year. If he can play 150 games there is a high probability he hits 30 home runs with a .245-.250 batting average. Best of all there’s no one really pushing to take his job and he’s going to hit 4th with Corey Seager and WyattLangford ahead of him.
Munetaka Murakami has a TON of swing and miss but he should play every day and also gain first base eligibility in two weeks. I projected a .220 batting average with 30 home runs.
Caleb Durbin should hit .250-.260 with a lot of hits off the Green Monster with 30 stolen bases.
Aaron Nola was hugely mispriced by the Market. I get it; his yearly performances vary greatly and you never know which version you’re going to get. Also, he had two injuries that effected his performance. However, Nola is my #5 starter and I’m not relying on him to be my pseudo ace. What I am going to do is start him when he’s healthy (other than Colorado) because he’s a tinkerer and when he has a blow up start it’s more likely due to that.
Ezequiel Tovar may not have the best plate discipline but he’s a really good defender and makes a lot of hard contact. In 2024 he hit .269 with 26 home runs but last year he had two injuries (oblique and hip). If he can stay fully healthy 20/10 could be his floor.
After a great 2024 season Colton Cowser suffered three injures last season; thumb fracture, concussion and rib fracture. He probably gets platooned, but I think 20-25 home runs with 10-15 stolen bases is very reasonable if he plays in 130 games. If the Orioles get any injuries I think his defense is good enough where he plays against lefties.
Josh Lowe has a career 41 WRC+ versus lefties so he should be platooned but if he plays in 125ish games I think his floor is a 20/20 season.
The plan with Mickey Moniak is primarily to start him only at home and hopefully he gives me a run rate of 20 homers and 10 stolen bases.
At the draft Lourdes Gurriel Jr. looked like he would return quicker than expected from his injury. The Diamondbacks need offense and Gurriel plays the majority of games at DH. The biggest question is how stolen bases he gets. He tore his ACL last September. I can see an outcome where he only steals 1-2 bases. He’s a career .274 hitter and if he played in 145 games I think 18-22 home runs is reasonable.
Mick Abel has shown to be a very good pitcher in the minors; he has very good command of three pitches. He did not look very good in a small sample size in the Majors last year but he looked great in Spring and won the #5 starter job from Zebby Matthews.
Dustin May’s velo was up during Spring.
Josh Smith will have eligibility to all four infield spots in two weeks.
Tanner Scott is my Edwin Diaz backup plan. I’ll closely monitor Scott’s numbers to make sure he really is the closer if Diaz were to get hurt.
I can’t quit Mitch Keller. Unlike the last three seasons I have him officially pegged as a spot starter most of which are at home.
I think Jake McCarthy can steal 30 bases if he plays in 130 games.
Ultimately Coby Mayo desperately needs a change of scenery and an opportunity to get 550 at-bats without having to worry if he will get benched if he slumps for 5 games.
Adres Gimenz was a mandatory pick. NFBC didn’t count Altuve as a second baseman and they said I had to leave the draft with a second baseman. *eye roll*
This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.
I had the 3rd pick. This analysis was written on March 28, 2026 and I realized I never posted the article.
My Team
Individual Player Analysis
Bobby Witt was the clear third best player in my rankings. I think if I had the first pick I probably would have taken Witt because he has the highest floor among Aaron Judge and Shoei Ohtani. Witt is younger and has a high probability of going 30/30 with 145 games played especially with the home ballpark moving in the walls.
I normally do not take pitching in the second round but the pitchers after Christopher Sanchez had too many flags. Sanchez’s velo ticked up last year and the velo was the same in Spring Training. After the top 3 starters Sanchez was the clear #4 starter because of the elite command and the very good health grade.
James Wood has his flaws; he strikes out too much and there is a TON of swing and miss. That said, in regards to the combination of hard-hit rate and bat speed and swing tilt only Aarond Judge is better. Wood’s hard-hit rate was 10% better than Nick Kurtz. I’m also banking on the Nationals offense being better than last year too.
William Contreras was my #2 catcher. I think his “down” year last year was due to fractured middle finger that he played through.
I think there are 9-10 good/safe closers and I wanted one of them. A closer run started in the 4th round and I wanted to pick one. Andres Munoz was my #4 closer.
Riley Greene, like Wood, has an elite combination of hard-hit rate. The Tigers lineup should be better than last year. The only downside is he doesn’t steal bases.
Dylan Cease was my #8 starting pitcher. Cease has his flaws; the ERA will be volatile and unpredictable; his WHIP could be in the 1.3’s. However, he has a great health grade; should provide a ton of strikeouts. Cease is a flawed pitcher but if you piggyback him with other pitchers with a low WHIP like a Sanchez and Shota Imanaga.
Nico Hoerner signed an extension after my draft. I’m happy for him but part of the reason why I liked him was had a higher probability he would reach his max projection in steals. I still think he will steal 25ish bases with a .280 batting average as his floor.
I was a big believer in Ryan Pepiot last year and I’m still a big believer. I think the Market is undercounting how much he should see an improvement no longer playing in a triple-a bam box as a home ballpark.
Willy Adames should bounce back. I’m weary of taking players in the first year after signing a big contract. Even with a down year he had a 108 WRC+. He will also hit behind Rafeal Devers all year. I think Adames hits .240 with 25-30 homers and 10 stolen bases.
The thesis for Matt Chapman was similar to the analysis for Adames. I’m expecting Chapman to have a lot of men on base when he bats. The biggest question mark is how many bases he steals. I projected 7 but I think he either steals 10-15 or 2-4.
I think there is a 60-66% chance a year from now Griffin Jax is a top 6 closer taken in drafts.
Shota Imanaga’s velo was up in the Spring. He won’t be as good as he was in 2024 and he’s a two-pitch pitcher to both sides of the plate, but he has a career WHIP of 1.01 and he pairs well with Cease. His velo was down in 2025 but how much of it was due to his hamstring injury? His velo was up in the Spring so I’m banking on a return to form; also, he only signed for one-year.
Gabriel Moreno was #6 rated catcher. Moreno should hit .280, get a lot of baseball card statistics and even get DH at-bats. Projection systems have him hitting 10-11 home runs with 110 games played. I think he gets 10-20 games at DH.
Chase Burns selection was made by accident. I forgot that I drafted Imanaga and I was shocked Burns fell 50 picks below his ADP. Burns ranked 29th among all pitchers with 40 innings in Stuff+. If he can pitch 140 innings I will make a big profit.
Munetaka Murakami has a TON of swing and miss but he should play every day and also gain first base eligibility in two weeks. I projected a .220 batting average with 30 home runs.
Ideally I would have taken a first basemen earlier and I’ve been burned a lot taking cheap power hitters, but I planned to take Spencer Torkelson in this part of the draft because the Tigers don’t really have anyone who can take his spot. Colt Keith could fill-in but if the Tigers are going to the playoffs Torkelson will have to be a big part of that. It feels like Torkelson is older than he really is; he will turn 27 in August which means he’s either near or at his peak. Yes, his second half was “worse” than the first half, but he still had a 107 WRC+ in the second half.
The plan with Mickey Moniak is primarily to start him only at home and hopefully he gives me a run rate of 20 homers and 10 stolen bases.
Caleb Durbin should hit .250-.260 with a lot of hits off the Green Monster with 30 stolen bases.
After a great 2024 season Colton Cowser suffered three injures last season; thumb fracture, concussion and rib fracture. He probably gets platooned, but I think 20-25 home runs with 10-15 stolen bases is very reasonable if he plays in 130 games. If the Orioles get any injuries I think his defense is good enough where he plays against lefties.
Josh Lowe has a career 41 WRC+ versus lefties so he should be platooned but if he plays in 125ish games I think his floor is a 20/20 season.
Giancarlo Stanton was selected for his power; he’s healthy at the moment but if he gets hurt he will be dropped.
At the draft Lourdes Gurriel Jr. looked like he would return quicker than expected from his injury. The Diamondbacks need offense and Gurriel plays the majority of games at DH. The biggest question is how stolen bases he gets. He tore his ACL last September. I can see an outcome where he only steals 1-2 bases. He’s a career .274 hitter and if he played in 145 games I think 18-22 home runs is reasonable.
I’m not high on Kyle Manzardo but I wanted home run insurance in case one of my power hitters gets hurt and finding 30-home run power on the waiver wire is extremely difficult.
Spencer Steer was taken as a flyer if he could A) take the LF job after JJ Bleday was optioned to the minors and/or get second base eligibility.
Clay Holmes and Reid Detmers were taken as flyers. Holmes more so as a home-only starter; Detmers as a lottery pick. If Detmers doesn’t look good in 2-3 starts he will be dropped.
I have to think Dylan Crews is back in the majors by late April.
Maybe Bryan Baker is the closer for the Rays?
Victor Vodnik was selected because opening weekend the Rockies are in Miami and maybe he will pick up a save.
