Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

This draft took place at 6pm PST on March 26.

League Background

This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.

Below are the results:

Player	Round	Pick	Pos
Trea Turner	1	2	SS
Daulton Varsho	2	23	C
Corbin Burnes	3	26	P
Eloy Jimenez	4	47	OF
Corbin Carroll	5	50	OF
Ryan Helsley	6	71	P
Tyler Stephenson	7	74	C
Tyler O’Neill	8	95	OF
Nathaniel Lowe	9	98	1B
David Bednar	10	119	P
Charlie Morton	11	122	P
Nico Hoerner	12	143	MI
Ryan McMahon	13	146	3B
Javier Baez	14	167	UT
Andrew Benintendi	15	170	OF
Josh Naylor	16	191	CI
Jon Gray	17	194	P
Ramon Laureano	18	215	OF
Austin Meadows	19	218	OF
Brandon Drury	20	239	2B
Michael Kopech	21	242	P
Jack Flaherty	22	263	P
Eric Lauer	23	266	P
Mitch Keller	24	287	P
Ryan Pepiot	25	290	P
Ross Stripling	26	311	P
Giovanny Gallegos	27	314	P
Joe Jimenez	28	335	P
Tylor Megill	29	338	P
Nick Pivetta	30	359	P

Below is my analysis of some of the players I drafted:

Trea Turner was my number one player because he is a true five category player. Ronald Acuna has the most upside but Turner provides a .290ish batting average floor while Acuna’s floor is maybe .250’s.

With catching thin I thought it was necessary to get Daulton Varsho, my number one catcher for two years in a row. Other than batting average he should provide good production everywhere else. The biggest question mark is how much will he be platooned? His saving grace is he is a really good defender, which means he will play more than not. If Varsho was outfield-only he would be my 27^th outfielder.

I was in complete shock that Corbin Burnes,my number one pitcher fell to me with the third pick.

I overpaid for Eloy Jimenez because my draft matrix said there wasn’t going to be a lot of pure play power guys with a good batting average. I think the White Sox are smart enough to let him DH 90% of the games and keep him in the lineup.

Corbin Caroll was the best player on the board for me. I know the sample size is small but the Diamondbacks gave him a big contract which means, unless he’s not as bad as Scott Kingery, that Caroll is going to play every day.

I drafted Ryan Helsley because I think he’s “the guy” and he’s on a good team. I don’t know if he can maintain the 39% strikeout rate he show last year but I think he’s the best reliver and was the undisputed closer at the end of last year. I drafted Giovanny Gallegos as a hedge.

Tyler Stephenson was my fourth rated catcher because he should hit high in the order and will hit in the .270s with enough home runs.

I liked Tyler O’Neil last year and I am believer again. He’s still only 27 years old and the raw ingredients are there. If he can stay healthy I see 25/15 with a lot of RBIs. The one downside is since he is playing center field his stolen bases may decrease but the fact the Cardinals have made Dylan Carlson their fourth outfielder means they believe O’Neil can handle the defensive requirements.

Nate Lowe and Josh Naylor should give me a combined .270 average with 45-50 home runs. There are seven pretty good first basemen and Lowe is number seven. C.J. Cron was a consideration but the back problems he had in Spring Training had me worried. I have no idea why there isn’t as much love for Naylor. I think his output will be similar to Andrew Vaughn but Vaughn goes 80 picks ahead of Naylor.

Since I had the best pitcher in baseball I took a gamble on Charlie Morton. Eno Sarris’ ranks had Morton as the 42^nd best pitcher. The quality of stuff and location are still there. That said, he’s 39 years old and may only provide 140-150 innings. If I can get 160 innings I think I can get 190 strikeouts with better luck than last year, a 3.70 ERA.

Nico Hoerner maybe has an 80 hit tool. He recently signed a 3-year extension and should leadoff everyday. I’m expecting a high .270s batting average with 10/20 with maybe 90 runs scored. After 10 games he will get second base eligibility too.

When doing my draft matrix I saw there wasn’t much value left at third base (in the 13^th round and beyond) if you wanted home runs and a batting average above .240, which is why I targeted and choose Ryan McMahon. I’m projecting 23 home runs but his exit velocity in Spring Training suggests there may be more power this year.

Javier Baez’s numbers last year were pretty bad but there was some good news. The strikeout rate was the lowest since 2016 and the HR/FB rate was the lowest its been since 2015. I think 20/15 is reasonable to expect. Will he hit above .255? Probably not but he can opt out of his contract at the end of this year so maybe that motivates him to steal more bases and get out of his contact.

Andrew Benintendi was taken for his batting average, the 12/12 potential and he should high enough in the lineup to get enough accounting statistics.

I owned Jon Gray last year and I think his numbers didn’t show how good he was. In other words, he was unlikely. He still plays in a good pitching park and has a very good infield defense behind him.

Ramon Laureano is probably the Athletics best hitter. If he struggles he’s going to continue to play because they don’t have anyone better. If he plays a full year I think 20/20 is possible. That may come with a .235 batting average but that is why I drafted guys like Benintendi and Hoerner.

Every year the Market forgets about productive players two years ago who had a down year one year ago. A couple of years ago that moniker went to Eduardo Escobar and Mitch Haniger. I believe Austin Meadows could fit into this category. After an injury plagued season Meadows had an ADP of 272 at NFBC. Meadows has a similar ADP of Austin Hays. I like Hays but the odds of Hays dramatically outperforming his ADP is small compared to Meadows.

Brandon Drury was choosen solely because of his three position (MI and CI) eligibility. Last years results benefitted greatly for a first good two months. His contract allows him to play every day and he should hit 20 home runs. Drury is purely an injury replacement.

With Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech I am betting on their stuff. I get Mitch Keller every year thinking this is the year he breaks out. Is this the year he breaks out? Probably not, but the upside is too good pass. His first start is in Cincinnati so I probably will not learn very much. Joe Jimenez may be the Braves closer or at least in a time share. With the first week consisting of four days I wanted relievers so I could hopefully get some cheap strikeouts during the shortened week. Nick Pivetta was selected because in week two he starts against the Pirates. Ryan Pepiot also has a favor matchup in week 2 against the Rockies and the Diamondbacks. Tylor Megill is in the minors but Carlos Carrasco isn’t the beacon of health and I think Megill is better than David Peterson. If I’m wrong I drop Megill after two weeks.

For the month of December Bryce Harper has an ADP of 188.78 amongst hitters in NFBC. That ADP seems to be too risk averse for one of the best fantasy players in the game. Harper underwent a in late November.

Typically a pitcher will miss about 12-18 months to recover. However, position players can return much quicker. For example, Shohei Ohtani had the surgery in October of 2018 and was serving as the Angels’ designated hitter by early May of 2019. Didi Gregorius also had the surgery in October of 2018 and was playing shortstop by June of 2019, eight months later. Therefore, the base rate I will use is Harper is back by late May-early June.

Below is my projection for Harper if he played a full season:

Player	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
Bryce Harper	500	.289	37	100	90	11

Suppose I wanted to be pessimistic and project Harper doesn’t come back to July 1, which is roughly the midway point of the season. That means I would get half of the projections. How do I evaluate Harper’s value if I only got half a season of him?

I think the best rough estimate is to combine Harper’s half year projections with a replacement level player. Charlie Blackmon is my 56^th rated outfielder and below is my projection.

Player	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
Charlie Blackmon	530	.262	14	70	62	4

Suppose I took a half season of Blackmon and a half season of Harper. What would those combined numbers look like (table below)?

AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
515	.275	25.5	85	76	7.5

I think the stolen bases may be a little too high considering the Phillies will be extra careful with Harper and will mandate that he not steal bases. However, he did steal a bag in the post season and two bases (out of four attempts) in the last two months of the regular season. I think it’s reasonable to project 3-6 stolen bases in a half season.

The combined total of Blackmon and Harper ranks as my 17^th rated outfielder; just at the same level as George Springer (his projection below). Springer is going as the 50^th hitter overall, which means the fantasy baseball community is severely discounting Harper’s value.

Player	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
George Springer	510	.267	24.5	89	80	7

I acknowledge in the NFBC format, having one less bench spot is a big pain especially with shorter IL stints leading to players missing missing time and thus requiring backups on the bench. However, at Harper’s current price I think fantasy owners are getting more than compensated for the risk they are taking.