$150 12-Team Mixed NFBC Draft Recap: March 21, 2025

by Matt Commins Posted on March 27, 2025

League Background

This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.

My Team

Overall Thoughts

I had the fifth pick and my analysis was written on March 22nd. I’m going to have get lucky with my starting pitching and/or my two elite closers have to perform to my projections for my pitching staff to work. If my pitching holds up I should have enough hitting and hitting depth to win the league.

Individual Player Analysis

Gunnar Henderson (#5)- I think his injury isn’t serious and the worst case scenario is he misses the first week of the season. If he plays a full year, his floor is 30/20.

William Contreras (#20)- easily the best catcher in roto and provides elite production for his position.

Manny Machado (#29)- in the second half of 2024 he got fully healthy and he was a 120 wRC+ hitter with a .795 OPS; some of that came with a .379 BABIP.

Mason Miller (#44)- my number one closer and he was the first closer drafted. According to my models its more optimal to have two elite closers. Maybe his new home ballpark isn’t as pitcher friendly as before his stuff is so good it probably won’t matter. And if he gets traded at the deadline he probably keeps closing.

Edwin Diaz (#53)- Diaz was my fourth rated closer and was the best closer on my board. Between Miller and Diaz I should have 200-plus strikeouts. Diaz’s performance varies greatly year-to-year but the Mets should win the division and Diaz will get all the saves.

Cal Raleigh (#68)- his defense is so good he plays all the time and his offense is good enough he will get ABs at DH; also the lineup is so average that Raleigh will hit in the top five spots in the line up.

Luis Robert (#77)- I get it; his team sucks and he doesn’t have the best health track record but the upside is too good to pass up. I have him as a 25/25 guy with 75 runs and RBI. To be fair, he probably either surpasses or falls well behind my projection.

Triston Casas (#92)- two picks ahead of me Vinnie Pasquantino was selected and Casas was the last reliable first baseman left. Originally I wanted to draft Aaron Nola but I didn’t think Casa would make it back to me on the turnaround. Casas should play every day; in a great lineup and a great hitters ballpark.

Hunter Greene (#101)- Greene has amazing stuff; only Garrett Crochet had better stuff numbers. If he pitched in a better home ballpark he would probably be a top 10 pitcher. He throws really hard and he may get hurt but at this point in the draft he is worth the risk and upside.

Xavier Edwards (#116)- similar to Elly de la Cruz last year I think the Market is underrating how much Edwards is going to play. He will probably leadoff all year and steal 30-40 bases with 85 runs and an above average batting average.

Justin Steele (#125)- Steele was rated just behind Hunter Greene. He’s average against righty batters and doesn’t have strikeout upside but with my two closers his lack of strikeouts isn’t as big of a liability.

Ryan Pepiot (#140)- command is an issue but the stuff is so good I think if the command takes a step forward he can be a top 20 starting pitcher.

Brandon Pfaadt (#149)- I actually had Pfaadt rated higher than Pepiot because of the A-health grade and 190 innings potential. Pfaadt would be one of the rare workhorses in the league this year.

Lane Thomas (#164)- in 2023 Thomas hit 28 home runs and stole 20 bases. After a “down” 2024 season Thomas is going in the 14th round. I think 28 home runs was a fluke but could he get 18-20 home runs? Its very possible. Cleveland’s lineup is so average without J-Ram that Thomas should play every day despite his below average defense.

Brandon Nimmo (#173)- Always underrated. I think his right knee soreness is a little concerning considering his age (31), but if he plays 140 games he should hit 23-25 home runs with plenty of RBI and a lot of runs.

Gleybor Torres (#188)- I was big on Torres last year and he struggled which is why he signed a one-year deal in Detroit. I think playing in New York affected him and playing in a small city will be a benefit. In 2022, 24 home runs; 2023, 25 home runs and 2024, 15 home runs. I think 20 home runs and 10-15 stolen bases is a reasonable projection.

Zach Neto (#197)- If Neto didn’t have shoulder surgery in the offseason he probably goes in the first 10 rounds. Even if he plays 130 games I think 20/20 is the floor. If Trout does stay healthy Neto could also be a 85/85.

Nick Lodolo (#211)- this is a bet on the stuff and if he can stay healthy.

Nestor Cortes (#221)- He was a borderline top 50 pitcher despite not throwing hard. He’s a very underrated pitcher; should provide 170-180 innings with above average results.

Nathaniel Lowe (#236)- Lowe will hit every day and will not get platooned. I don’t need massive power; I just need an above average batting average and 17-19 home runs.

TJ Friedl (#245)- in 2023 he hit 18 home runs and stole 27 bases; he has reverse platoon splits and I don’t think the Reds have a better defender in center field, which means he should play every day.

Jordan Walker (#260), Matt Wallner (#269) and Trevor Laurnach (#308)- these picks are based on exit velo and bat speed. Walker and Wallner were in the top 12 last year among hitters. Walker’s raw talent is better than his 2024 numbers indicate.

Mitch Keller (#284)- very good pitcher when he’s at home.

Merrill Kelly (#293)- was very good in 2022-23 but had a down year in 2024; I think he can be a streaming option at home.

Reid Detmers (#317)- the raw stuff is there; can he put it all together? If he looks bad the first two starts I drop him.

Osvaldo Bido (#332)- very good stuff but command is an issue; he could blow up in good matchups. He hasn’t looked good in the Spring but Bido is a lottery pick. If Mason Miller is traded, I can see Bido being a very good closer if the command never manifests.

Nolan Gorman (#341)- the raw hitting ability is there; if gets every day Abs I think he hit 30 home runs

Mitch Spence (#356)- stream option if he starts in Seattle to begin the year

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Q4 2024

by Matt Commins Posted on December 31, 2024

Disclaimer

Nothing discussed/written should be considered as investment advice. Please do your own research or speak to a financial advisor before putting a dime of your money into these crazy markets. In other words, if you buy something I bought, you deserve to lose your money.

The only reason why I am making my portfolio public because it provides accountability to me. Some or all the analysis I provide could be from the top of my head and should not be considered accurate.

My investing goal is simple; to try to manage risk while being fully invested without market timing. Howard Marks said it best, “even though we can’t predict, we can prepare.”

All my references to the Market are only for the US Market.

Performance

For the year I returned 23.6% compared to 23.84% for the S&P 500 (without dividends reinvested). Most of the return was due to Berkshire Hathaway, British American Tobacco, Carriage Services and making some timely trades in early August.

The table below is a breakdown of my portfolio at the end of Q3. What you see below where my entire net worth, excluding my home, is allocated.

Portfolio Activity

I sold my Disney position for a 13.5% gain. I added my exposure to Glasshouse, Cronos Group, Grown Rogue and Etsy. Speaking of Etsy, they recently approved a new stock repurchasing program, which authorized the repurchase of up to 1 billion of stock, which is 18% of the company. 

Two weeks ago Grown Rogue announced they are currently completing Phase II construction planning, expected to commence in Q1 2025, that is expected to increase production to more than 1,000 pounds per month of craft flower. 

I opened a position in Occidental Petroleum (at about $46 per share). This is simply a pure trade and it will not be a long term holding. My thinking is the price I paid is 28% less than what Warren Buffett paid in the open market.

I opened starter positions in Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) and Dollar General (DG). AMR intrigues me because of how much stock they’re buying back. DG intrigues me because I bought it at a price that’s 12% less than Seth Klarman.

I opened starter positions in two British UK small cap stocks: Foxtons Group and TruFin. Foxtons is one of Britain’s best-known real estate agents and its trading at a EV/sales of 0.9x. TruFin is an investment holding company where, I believe, the sum of the parts are vastly greater than the market cap.

Quotes & Charts

“You are under no obligation to remain the same person you were a year ago, a month ago, or even a day ago. You are here to create yourself, continuously.” ~Richard Feynman

“Few things are more persuasive than the opinion you desperately want or need to be true.” Source: https://collabfund.com/blog/rules-truths-beliefs/ 

Jeff Bezos on not under-estimating opportunity:

“I think it’s generally human nature to over-estimate risk and under-estimate opportunity. … The risks are probably not as big as you perceive and the opportunities may be bigger than you percieve.”

Napoleon Hill on not doing what the majority of people do when faced with temporary defeat:

“Before success comes in any person’s life, he is sure to meet with much temporary defeat, and, perhaps, some failure. When defeat overtakes a person, the easiest and most logical thing to do is to quit. That is exactly what the majority of people do.”

“As the US has gone from “uninvestible” at the beginning of this bull market to today’s “obvious trade,” its share of the global stock market has surged from 40% to 64% (Chart 6), pushing market concentration to unprecedented levels (Chart 7). The US is the most expensive it has ever been compared to the rest of the world, with the premium having gone from -11% (a discount) in 2009 to +60% today (Chart 8). But rather than take steps to mitigate this extreme portfolio concentration, it appears that investors are doubling down. According to Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey, institutional investors are overweight US stocks, but even more worrisome may be the concentration in smaller investor portfolios. According to a recent Wall Street Journal article citing Vanda Research, the average individual’s stock portfolio has 40% of its value tied up in just three tech stocks!

With all eyes on US large cap growth stocks and disinflation beneficiaries, we see bigger opportunities in international, small caps, value stocks and inflation beneficiaries.” 

Source: https://caia.org/blog/2024/10/11/what-does-once-generation-investment-opportunity-look

Michael Jordan’s response when asked if a fear of failure motivated him:

“I never feared about my skills because I put in the work. Work ethic eliminates fear. So you if you do the work, what are you fearing? You know what you’re capable of and what you’re not.”

“The first takeaway is that if you are going to include an allocation to trend following, given the observation of a strong dispersion of annualized returns among CTAs, you should consider diversifying across multiple CTAs (or trend following strategies).” ~Laryy Swedroe

Source: https://alphaarchitect.com/2024/12/portfolio-efficiency/

Tax benefits of MLPs from Bill Gross https://williamhgross.com/somebody-stop-me/ 

Source: https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/insights/asset-allocation/2024/gmo_a-second-opinion-is-just-what-the-doctor-ordered_9-24.pdf

Source: https://www.gmo.com/americas/product-index-page/equities/international-opportunistic-value-strategy/international-value-etf/?accept=Funds

Source: https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1867995119758217592?t=z0tSxopk4os3H0za3__Hrg&s=19

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2023 $150 12-Team Mixed NFBC Draft March 27, 2024 Wrap Up

by Matt Commins Posted on October 6, 2024

At the end of every season I revisit my draft to see if there are learnings and/or takeaways from the season. You can find the initial recap of this draft here.

In this league I came in 1st; 1st in hitting and 7th in pitching. I had 54 hitting points and the second best team only had 45.

At the end of the draft season I wrote that this team would have the highest variance of all my teams and in fact it did, to the upside. The primary difference between this team and the $250 team was my hitters outperformed their ADPs. Below are the hitters who outperformed their ADPs:

  • Yainer Diaz
  • William Contreras
  • Gunnar Henderson
  • Elly De La Cruz
  • Josh Naylor
  • Rhys Hoskins
  • Brandon Lowe
  • Steven Kwan

Bad Luck

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was doing great before going down with an injury. He hasn’t looked so good in the playoffs; it’s a small sample size but if he continues to look poor he may be a value on draft day next year.

Josh Lowe was a draft day discount. He underperformed expectations and will likely be relegated to a strong side platoon but I think he will perform better next year.

Me Being Wrong

I’ve been a Daulton Varsho fan for the past three seasons. I keep projecting 25/15 with a .230 batting average. His defense is good he’s going to play every day but since he hits so many fly balls his performance will vary greatly month-to-month.

Jhoan Duran, just like David Bednar, began the season with an injury. I thought injuries for both players would be minor and they would bounce back to their 2023 form. I think a takeaway is to not draft injured closers.

I actually avoided Paul Goldschmidt in my prior two drafts but in this draft I thought I was getting enough value for the age-risk I was taking. I’m not totally disappointed with his performance as I only lose a few dollars on him. I think he will likely sign a one year deal with a team like the Rays and probably put up numbers similar to 2024.

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