If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
Last year Josh Hamilton missed two months of the season due to a thumb injury. He got hurt sliding into first base, which was a fluke accident. Towards the end of the year he missed 20 games with shoulder and upper-body injuries. In early February he had shoulder surgery to fix an AC joint. “He is expected to resume baseball activities in three to eight weeks, while a full recovery is estimated at six to eight weeks, the team said.”
Hamilton, who turns 34 in May, is a player who no longer has the physical tools to be a top 50 fantasy player, but if he can play 140-plus games the lineup around him could make him a tremendous value on draft day. The shoulder surgery probably makes unlikely he can play 140-plus games at this point.
When he’s active, he’s going to bat either fourth or fifth, which means he’s going to have a lot of RBI opportunities. You may be saying to yourself that he played 151 games in 2013 and he only had 79 RBIs. The reason why the RBI totals were low was because he only hit .224 with runners in scoring position, which is extremely low.
In regards to the power, the HR/FB rate has decreased year-over-year for three years. However, last year was the second to lowest HR/FB rate of his career so there should be some positive regression. That said, I don’t see 40-plus or even 30-plus home runs as a reasonable ceiling for him but I think he is capable for 25 if he plays in 140 games.
Last year he had a career high in strikeout rate and he was able to have .263 batting average with a .350 BABIP. Any time I see a high strikeout rate and high BABIP I immediately think regression. Last year he struggled a lot against fastballs. For example, last year he hit .285 with a 24.4% strikeout rate. From 2008-13 he hit .338 with a 16% strike out rate. These statistics can be one of two things: A) a decrease in bat speed or B) it’s a small sample size. I think it may be a combination of both. If the strikeout rate doesn’t decrease I see the batting average regressing to the .240s.
Since his 2014 numbers were so bad, his injuries last year and his current injury he may be a draft value. Two years ago he was one of the top five best players in baseball so it’s possible he could breakout. However, at the same time he has a low floor. If I’m in a shallow league I would take a flyer at the end of the draft.
My 2015 projection for Hamilton is 400 ABs, .242 AVG, 15 HRs, 65 RBI, 55 R and 1 SB.
