Every fantasy offseason there are a small number of players every website discusses. These players usually have a combination of two attributes: A) immense physicals traits and B) have unproven track records in the majors (i.e. at most a partial season in the majors). These players are discussed so much their fantasy value becomes large their ADP (average draft position) makes it almost impossible to make any profit.
Last year it was Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna. Two years ago, it was Trea Turner. In 2016 Gary Sanchez and Cory Seager. Every draft season pundits and fantasy players obsess over these players. I promise everyone, and their mother are going to have opinions on Adalberto Mondesi and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
What’s fascinating about people in general is they’re the allure of the dream of what could be. I feel like this phenomenon ingrained in human nature. The known is never as attractive as the unknown. Maybe we love to gamble? Maybe we want the bragging rights for the season and/or for the rest of our lives? “When I was young man I drafted Ronald Acuna. I knew he would be something special.”
Mondesi has a lot of in common with the Trea Turner. (*When I refer to Turner I am referring to him as the player he was heading into drafts two years ago). They both had incredible half seasons, they’re playing this year at age 24 and they have the raw ability to hit 20 home runs and steal 60 bases. The scouting reports say Turner is miles ahead of Mondesi in regards to approach and bat-to-ball ability, which means Mondesi far more risk than Turner.
Most fantasy experts are projecting Mondesi to hit in the .235-.250 range, which is reasonable. I take a simple approach to projecting players. Obviously Mondesi had a great half season last year, but don’t overlook the 209 plate appearances he had prior. In 500 plate appearances in the majors he’s hit .238 with 14 home runs, 46 stolen bases with 67 runs and 53 RBI. I think he can hit .245 but those numbers are on-point and I’m using those as my projection.
It’s too early for reliable NFBC data but I think he goes in the third and fourth rounds of 12 and 15 team drafts, which means I will not be drafting him this year. If goes that early people are looking mostly at the upside: A) the brief track record, B) the Royals will be bad, so he’ll play every day and C) as long as Ned Yost is the manager Mondesi will rarely have the red light when standing on first base.
However, there is just as much downside. His bat-to-ball skills and patience are very erratic and can be exploited. It’s very possible after the first 4-5 weeks he’s hitting .170 with a .220 on-base. If this happens even Ned Yost will have to move Mondesi down in the lineup. (it’s also possible Billy Hamilton gets off to fast start while Mondesi struggles and Hamilton gets the leadoff spot).
Another possibility is his inpatient approach gets exploited. Its possible pitchers didn’t watch that much film of Mondesi last year and he snuck up on pitchers. In his brief stints in the majors in 2016-17 he struck out 33% of the time. Last year it was only 26.5%. It’s possible his strikeout rate goes back to the 30% range. If that happens it will be difficult to hit .240 let alone .250.
Every pick in a draft has an expected value. It is up to the owner to get as much value for every draft pick. For example, suppose the 30th pick has a value of $10. Your job is to try to get $10 or more of expected value. If you draft someone who only generates $5 you’ve lost half of your value and you have to get extra value somewhere else in the draft. Mondesi’s value has a wide range of outcomes, which means drafting him in the third-fourth round is extremely risky.
