About three weeks ago MLB decided to delay the 2020 and currently, no one knows when the season will begin. I signed up for two NFBC leagues and I kind of forgot about baseball (focusing too much on reading and investing). I stopped listening to baseball podcasts and stopped reading content.
On Sunday afternoon, I was surprised to receive an email saying one of my leagues filled up and the draft would happen in four hours. Normally before drafts I spend a couple of days creating decision trees for each of my draft picks–trying to assemble the most optimal team possible.
Quickly, a decision tree is identifying what players are expected to be available at each draft pick. I pull the latest ADP numbers from NFBC and use the ADP data to see whose likely to be available at pick 25, 45, 65 and so on.
For this draft I had the fifth pick. I didn’t have the time to create an advanced decision trees. Instead I created two. One if I drafted Cody Bellinger and Gerrit Cole. After doing the decision trees the best overall team statistics were, surprisingly, with Cole.
My initial premise going into the draft was I want the best player per at-bat/start/relief appearance. I think the best case scenario is MLB plays 120 games this year with 100 games being the most likely scenario. Therefore, my theory was I wanted the most talented player available.
Below is the team I drafted along with analysis of each player. The analysis is speaking as if we are having a 162 game season:
Gerrit Cole: I was prepared to take Jacob deGrom if Cole was taken. On a per start basis (on a 5×5 scale) Cole is the best pitcher available. If Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are healthy Cole has the highest likelihood of winning 20 games.
Bryce Harper: I wanted to draft the best hitter who provided at least 10 stolen bases. I believe Harper is underrated; he’s still young, plays in a great home ballpark, a very good lineup and should steal 10-15 bases with a lot of power and account stats.
Ozzie Albies: I wrote about him here.
Aaron Judge: If he plays a full season, he’s a steal at this pick.
Marcus Semien: He’s improved for four straight seasons. He will hit atop the lineup and is so good defensively he should play at least 150-plus games. The advanced offensive statistics suggest last season wasn’t a fluke.
Shohei Ohtani: I wrote about Ohtani here.
Liam Hendricks & Taylor Rogers: I think Hendricks keeps the job all year. He’s easily the best pitcher in the bullpen and Bob Melvin is very loyal to his closers. Rogers may lose some saves because he’s left handed but his base rate statistics suggest he’s extremely good. If Rogers was “the guy” for every save chance he would be a top five closer.
Tommy Edman: I wrote about Edman here.
Byron Buxton: Would you be surprised if he leads the league in steals? I know he’s been hurt the past few years, but in a shortened season the odds he plays the full year increases. I project 16 home runs and 29 stolen bases with enough runs to be relevant. His biggest problem has been health and not skill set. When drafting in the middle rounds I will gladly take a chance on the player with a super star skill set.
Mitch Garver: He was extremely lucky last year and he will only play about 50% of the time. He’s not hitting 31 home runs but I am only projecting 19, which seems reasonable. Also, I picked Garver because I needed home runs and I wanted to get a catcher who could provide power.
Paul DeJong: very underrated player. He’s going to hit fourth in a good lineup and should hit 30 home runs with a decent average. He’s good enough defensively that he should play 150-plus games.
Yuli Gurriel: At this point in the draft he was the best first baseman available and the drop off after him was pretty steep. Like Garver, the power last year is not going to be repeated but I think he should hit 21ish home runs and that’s all I am asking for.
Omar Narverz: He’s going to get 65% of the plate appearances; his home ballpark is a big upgrade compared to Seattle and he probably hits fifth or sixth in the lineup.
Justin Upton: I love the lineup and before the injury riddled 2019 season he was very consistent. He’s 32 and is heading towards the right-side of the aging curve but at this price he’s worth the pick. Also, when Ohtani doesn’t play Upton probably bats fourth.
Christian Walker: a lot of fantasy experts are not optimistic about Walker and I see it. However, the Diamondbacks are going to try to win in 2020 and Walker performed well enough last year that he should be safe for 2-months before there are whispers for someone else to take his job.
Brian Anderson: if he played on a better team and in any other ballpark (besides the Giants) he would be picked 100 picks earlier. His hard-hit rate is more than Nolan Areando for example. The Marlins, at the top of the order is very competent which means Anderson should get enough accounting statistics. Also, he has OF and 3B eligibility. In a shortened season position eligibility is so useful.
Dylan Carlson: if he played a full year he’s a 20/20 candidate. I drafted him to protect my Tommy Edman pick.
Josh James: Eno Sarris loves James so I took a shot.
Ender Inciarte: he was good for four years before he had a bad injury plagued season last year. The Braves don’t really have an every day CF and he’s really good defensively. Also, before last season he was a sure bet for 20 stolen bases. Lastly. if Buxton gets hurt Inciarte is my hedge for stolen bases.
Anthony DeSclafani: I draft him every seasons it seems like. For some reason I keep thinking he’s going to be break out eventually but if he doesn’t he’s one of the best fifth starters in baseball.
AJ Puk: he benefits from a shortened season because an innings cap doesn’t negatively effect his fantasy value now.
Dylan Cease: he’s a home run pitcher; he’s either really good and takes a step forward or I drop him after three weeks.
Tommy LaStella: was his 2019 legitimate? The numbers say yes, but the sample size is small. At this ADP I will take chance on him. He’s projected to leadoff in front of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Ohtani and Upton. If he’s not hitting I’ll drop him.
Austin Voth: he is currently in the bullpen but I don’t believe Joe Ross will not be in the rotation for more than two weeks.
Randal Grichuk: he’s safe for playing time and over a full season he hits .240 with 30-plus home runs with room for 5 stolen bases.
Zach Eflin: I believed in him last season and he disappointed. At this price I want to see if he can return to the K% in 2018. If not, I will drop him.
Steven Matz: he averaged a strikeout per inning last season and since he plays in the NL East he’s going to have some good matchups. Maybe he stays healthy and maybe he takes a step forward. If not, I will drop him.
Carter Kieboom: he is probably the Nationals starting third baseman all year. He has SS eligibility and should hit 20-25 home runs with maybe 10 stolen bases. Honestly, if I need starting pitcher in week one I probably drop him.
Forrest Whitley: total shot in the dark. He struggled in the first half of the season but looked great towards the end. The Astros rotation is mediocre so if he’s pitching well I can’t see the Astros leaving him in the minors.
