Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I recently signed up for The Athletic because Keith Law joined them. I was extremely surprised and delighted how robust their fantasy draft kit is. I randomly found it last night and I spent 2.5 hours reading the material. I recommend subscribing.

I was reading their round table on second base. Michael Salfino said, “He (Ozzie Albies) seems terribly overrated as a hitter.” I was surprised to read that because I think of Albies as one of the most consistent second basemen available. For his career he’s hit .279 and provides 24 home runs, 14-15 stolen bases with 100-plus runs all before he turned 23 years old.

In the month of February at NFBC he’s going as the third second basemen at pick 40.5. Albies is my first rated second baseman but he’s barely above Jose Altuve and Gleyber Torres so it’s all about preference among these three hitters.

Below is my projection for Albies. Other than a regression in batting average and RBI I projected similar numbers to last year.

I don’t understand why some people would see Albies as overrated. Maybe it was because he was never a “big” prospect coming up through the minors? Or maybe it’s because he’s not overly flashy in real life and in fantasy. He’s kind of like owning a Volvo in the early 2000s. (I was in college at this time so my analogy is based on my personal experience.) It drove and handled well, had more steel than most other cars and therefore was safer and you never impressed a woman with it.

I’m projecting 24.5 home runs but it’s possible Albies could hit for more power because his hard hit rate shot up 23 percent last year and he’ll only be 23 this year so it’s possible he got stronger in the offseason.

Since he’s still very young the stolen bases should be relatively safe. I’m projecting 15 stolen bases. If only steals seven he goes from my number one second basemen to my seventh—that’s how closely bunched up the top seven second basemen are ranked.

The bottom line is Albies could finish the season as the best second baseman or the 8-9th because the difference between all the players is marginal. However, if he does finish as the 8th best second baseman I don’t think you’re losing value at his current ADP.

I play fantasy baseball at NFBC. Specifically, 12-team mixed leagues. My analysis and numbers are geared towards NFBC’s format with two catchers in your starting lineup.

I’ve noticed there’s still chatter about position scarcity being a real thing still other than catcher. I agree position scarcity does exist at catcher, but at other positions is just utter nonsense.

A starting lineup consists of 14 hitters for a total of 168 hitters. During the draft your goal is acquire as many of those 168 for as cheap as possible. If you draft the 200^th best hitter at pick 150 you’re losing value. (I’m assuming global values with that comment; if you believe he’s the 150^th best hitter available then you did not overpay.)

Below are the bottom three non-catcher hitters. It just so happens they fill each major category: Outfield, Middle Infield and Corner Infield.

I rank players via the SGP model. Basically, it gives a value for every hit, run, home run, rbi and stolen base. The higher the SGP, the more valuable a hitter is.

According to my projections there isn’t much difference between the three hitters. Michael Chavis is 0.005 better than Andrelton Simmons, which is virtually nothing.

You may be asking, “but Matt what about second base or third base?”. Good question. At the end of drafts you’re usually filling your middle infield or corner infield spot so it doesn’t matter what position they play if they’re filling those slots. Obviously, if you have drafted a third basemen at the end of the draft then you’ll have to A) take someone out of the 168 best hitters or B) plan to take a third basemen earlier in drafts.

The next logical question is are certain positions deeper than others? Yes. Third base is deeper than first base. Shortstop is more top heavy than second base, but second base has more value in the middle. Shortstop, at the bottom is thinner than second base. Even though you have to start five, outfield is the deepest position this year.

All that said, if you’re picking in the fifth round and you’re debating between Matt Olson or Whit Merrifield, take the best player available.

I was listening to a fantasy baseball podcast that have “expert(s)” as hosts. I’ve been listening to the show for a while and I never understand their rationale for how they evaluate players. (After I’m done writing this I will stop listening to the podcast.)

Humans have a difficult time hearing ideas that are different than our beliefs. If I think Jose Altuve is overvalued I will only like to hear from people who agree with me. Or if I hear someone discuss the pros and cons, I will only remember the cons part of the argument. To avoid this bias, I do my best to listen to ideas that contradict my own; in fact, I try to uphold this belief in all aspects of my life.

So, I don’t mind if people have differing opinions than me. That said, if someone has an opinion, I want evidence that backs up their viewpoint.

Below are the 2019 statistics from FanGraphs. The ADP data is from NFBC (date range: 1/25 to 2/6). Of these two players which would prefer?

Player A is Tommy Edman and Player B is Jeff McNeil. In the podcast the hosts swooned over McNeil and shitted on Edman. I don’t understand the difference in ADP and/or why the podcast hosts felt the way they did. (If you listen to the podcast they do provide their reasons but it’s mostly anecdotal and chopped full of personal biases.)

In 1974 Paul Slovic and Daniel Kahneman did a study with professional horse handicappers. There were five rounds of betting. Each round consisted of ten races and with each subsequent round they received information of their own choosing. So, in round one they were given five pieces of information. In round two ten pieces and all the way up to 40 pieces of information.

What the researchers found was their accuracy didn’t improve with more information. However, what did improve was their confidence level. That’s pretty striking. It shows that after a certain amount of information, any extra information contributes to our earlier conclusion (i.e. confirmation bias). Also, if the new information disagrees with our conclusion we ignore the information.

Obviously both players had limited sample sizes last year (more so with Edman) but I used the numbers in the table above to come up with my projections for both players. In my experience the numbers I cited above are all the numbers I need to make a projection on a player; any more data or observations contributes to bias.

Among second basemen Edman and McNeil are ranked 9^th and 11^th respectively. I think these projections are reasonable. Edman’s numbers last year suggest he wasn’t overtly lucky, that he should be able to at least a be productive player for the Cardinals.

Edman’s detractors say he doesn’t have an everyday job and will begin the season as a super utility player. RosterResource has Edman as its everyday left fielder.

If you don’t believe Edman will play every day then who is going to play left field? Dylan Carlson is probably the best bet, but he has only played 18 games in triple-a. Tyler O’Neill? He’s not a good defender and I doubt he hits above .240 if he played every day. For his career he has 58.2% contact rate. To put that into perspective, Chris Davis in 2019 had a 62.9% contact rate, the lowest among all hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. Lane Thomas? I don’t much about him, but his scouting report suggests he’s maybe a 4^th outfielder type. Also, Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter only have jobs because of their contract, Harrison Bader, who they demoted after he got off to a slow start. In my mind there is far greater chance Edman gets 540 at-bats than 350-400.

I don’t want to make it sound like I’m being petty and/or overly critical about the hosts of the podcast, but there have been further evidence that I don’t believe they have any idea on how to evaluate players.

Another example is Matt Olson. He’s currently being drafted as the 4^th first baseman, 58.84 ADP. The podcast hosts had no idea why Olson was being taken so high. They said that he would have to hit 50 home runs in order to be taken that high.

Let’s look at his numbers. The table below shows the statistics for his 2019 season, his prorated 2019 season (if he played a full year) and my 2020 projection.

Olson is currently my 4^th rated first basemen and he’s my 46^th overall hitter, which is pretty in-line with his current ADP. The Athletics love to platoon hitters, but Olson is going to play every day. His bat and glove are too good not to be in the lineup. Anyway, based on my projections I don’t think it’s crazy that Olson is going where he’s going. What is crazy is for someone, especially expert(s), to say it’s ludicrous to draft him at his current ADP.

Maybe I’m being an internet troll but at the very least this is a podcast I can no longer listen to. Maybe they’re right and I’m wrong. I can no longer listen because our method of evaluation is completely different.