I play fantasy baseball at NFBC. Specifically, 12-team mixed leagues. My analysis and numbers are geared towards NFBC’s format with two catchers in your starting lineup.
I’ve noticed there’s still chatter about position scarcity being a real thing still other than catcher. I agree position scarcity does exist at catcher, but at other positions is just utter nonsense.
A starting lineup consists of 14 hitters for a total of 168 hitters. During the draft your goal is acquire as many of those 168 for as cheap as possible. If you draft the 200th best hitter at pick 150 you’re losing value. (I’m assuming global values with that comment; if you believe he’s the 150th best hitter available then you did not overpay.)
Below are the bottom three non-catcher hitters. It just so happens they fill each major category: Outfield, Middle Infield and Corner Infield.
I rank players via the SGP model. Basically, it gives a value for every hit, run, home run, rbi and stolen base. The higher the SGP, the more valuable a hitter is.
According to my projections there isn’t much difference between the three hitters. Michael Chavis is 0.005 better than Andrelton Simmons, which is virtually nothing.
You may be asking, “but Matt what about second base or third base?”. Good question. At the end of drafts you’re usually filling your middle infield or corner infield spot so it doesn’t matter what position they play if they’re filling those slots. Obviously, if you have drafted a third basemen at the end of the draft then you’ll have to A) take someone out of the 168 best hitters or B) plan to take a third basemen earlier in drafts.
The next logical question is are certain positions deeper than others? Yes. Third base is deeper than first base. Shortstop is more top heavy than second base, but second base has more value in the middle. Shortstop, at the bottom is thinner than second base. Even though you have to start five, outfield is the deepest position this year.
All that said, if you’re picking in the fifth round and you’re debating between Matt Olson or Whit Merrifield, take the best player available.
