League Background
This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.
I had the 3rd pick. This analysis was written on March 28, 2026 and I realized I never posted the article.
My Team
Individual Player Analysis
Bobby Witt was the clear third best player in my rankings. I think if I had the first pick I probably would have taken Witt because he has the highest floor among Aaron Judge and Shoei Ohtani. Witt is younger and has a high probability of going 30/30 with 145 games played especially with the home ballpark moving in the walls.
I normally do not take pitching in the second round but the pitchers after Christopher Sanchez had too many flags. Sanchez’s velo ticked up last year and the velo was the same in Spring Training. After the top 3 starters Sanchez was the clear #4 starter because of the elite command and the very good health grade.
James Wood has his flaws; he strikes out too much and there is a TON of swing and miss. That said, in regards to the combination of hard-hit rate and bat speed and swing tilt only Aarond Judge is better. Wood’s hard-hit rate was 10% better than Nick Kurtz. I’m also banking on the Nationals offense being better than last year too.
William Contreras was my #2 catcher. I think his “down” year last year was due to fractured middle finger that he played through.
I think there are 9-10 good/safe closers and I wanted one of them. A closer run started in the 4th round and I wanted to pick one. Andres Munoz was my #4 closer.
Riley Greene, like Wood, has an elite combination of hard-hit rate. The Tigers lineup should be better than last year. The only downside is he doesn’t steal bases.
Dylan Cease was my #8 starting pitcher. Cease has his flaws; the ERA will be volatile and unpredictable; his WHIP could be in the 1.3’s. However, he has a great health grade; should provide a ton of strikeouts. Cease is a flawed pitcher but if you piggyback him with other pitchers with a low WHIP like a Sanchez and Shota Imanaga.
Nico Hoerner signed an extension after my draft. I’m happy for him but part of the reason why I liked him was had a higher probability he would reach his max projection in steals. I still think he will steal 25ish bases with a .280 batting average as his floor.
I was a big believer in Ryan Pepiot last year and I’m still a big believer. I think the Market is undercounting how much he should see an improvement no longer playing in a triple-a bam box as a home ballpark.
Willy Adames should bounce back. I’m weary of taking players in the first year after signing a big contract. Even with a down year he had a 108 WRC+. He will also hit behind Rafeal Devers all year. I think Adames hits .240 with 25-30 homers and 10 stolen bases.
The thesis for Matt Chapman was similar to the analysis for Adames. I’m expecting Chapman to have a lot of men on base when he bats. The biggest question mark is how many bases he steals. I projected 7 but I think he either steals 10-15 or 2-4.
I think there is a 60-66% chance a year from now Griffin Jax is a top 6 closer taken in drafts.
Shota Imanaga’s velo was up in the Spring. He won’t be as good as he was in 2024 and he’s a two-pitch pitcher to both sides of the plate, but he has a career WHIP of 1.01 and he pairs well with Cease. His velo was down in 2025 but how much of it was due to his hamstring injury? His velo was up in the Spring so I’m banking on a return to form; also, he only signed for one-year.
Gabriel Moreno was #6 rated catcher. Moreno should hit .280, get a lot of baseball card statistics and even get DH at-bats. Projection systems have him hitting 10-11 home runs with 110 games played. I think he gets 10-20 games at DH.
Chase Burns selection was made by accident. I forgot that I drafted Imanaga and I was shocked Burns fell 50 picks below his ADP. Burns ranked 29th among all pitchers with 40 innings in Stuff+. If he can pitch 140 innings I will make a big profit.
Munetaka Murakami has a TON of swing and miss but he should play every day and also gain first base eligibility in two weeks. I projected a .220 batting average with 30 home runs.
Ideally I would have taken a first basemen earlier and I’ve been burned a lot taking cheap power hitters, but I planned to take Spencer Torkelson in this part of the draft because the Tigers don’t really have anyone who can take his spot. Colt Keith could fill-in but if the Tigers are going to the playoffs Torkelson will have to be a big part of that. It feels like Torkelson is older than he really is; he will turn 27 in August which means he’s either near or at his peak. Yes, his second half was “worse” than the first half, but he still had a 107 WRC+ in the second half.
The plan with Mickey Moniak is primarily to start him only at home and hopefully he gives me a run rate of 20 homers and 10 stolen bases.
Caleb Durbin should hit .250-.260 with a lot of hits off the Green Monster with 30 stolen bases.
After a great 2024 season Colton Cowser suffered three injures last season; thumb fracture, concussion and rib fracture. He probably gets platooned, but I think 20-25 home runs with 10-15 stolen bases is very reasonable if he plays in 130 games. If the Orioles get any injuries I think his defense is good enough where he plays against lefties.
Josh Lowe has a career 41 WRC+ versus lefties so he should be platooned but if he plays in 125ish games I think his floor is a 20/20 season.
Giancarlo Stanton was selected for his power; he’s healthy at the moment but if he gets hurt he will be dropped.
At the draft Lourdes Gurriel Jr. looked like he would return quicker than expected from his injury. The Diamondbacks need offense and Gurriel plays the majority of games at DH. The biggest question is how stolen bases he gets. He tore his ACL last September. I can see an outcome where he only steals 1-2 bases. He’s a career .274 hitter and if he played in 145 games I think 18-22 home runs is reasonable.
I’m not high on Kyle Manzardo but I wanted home run insurance in case one of my power hitters gets hurt and finding 30-home run power on the waiver wire is extremely difficult.
Spencer Steer was taken as a flyer if he could A) take the LF job after JJ Bleday was optioned to the minors and/or get second base eligibility.
Clay Holmes and Reid Detmers were taken as flyers. Holmes more so as a home-only starter; Detmers as a lottery pick. If Detmers doesn’t look good in 2-3 starts he will be dropped.
I have to think Dylan Crews is back in the majors by late April.
Maybe Bryan Baker is the closer for the Rays?
Victor Vodnik was selected because opening weekend the Rockies are in Miami and maybe he will pick up a save.
