Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

About three weeks ago MLB decided to delay the 2020 and currently, no one knows when the season will begin. I signed up for two NFBC leagues and I kind of forgot about baseball (focusing too much on reading and investing). I stopped listening to baseball podcasts and stopped reading content.

On Sunday afternoon, I was surprised to receive an email saying one of my leagues filled up and the draft would happen in four hours. Normally before drafts I spend a couple of days creating decision trees for each of my draft picks–trying to assemble the most optimal team possible.

Quickly, a decision tree is identifying what players are expected to be available at each draft pick. I pull the latest ADP numbers from NFBC and use the ADP data to see whose likely to be available at pick 25, 45, 65 and so on.

For this draft I had the fifth pick. I didn’t have the time to create an advanced decision trees. Instead I created two. One if I drafted Cody Bellinger and Gerrit Cole. After doing the decision trees the best overall team statistics were, surprisingly, with Cole.

My initial premise going into the draft was I want the best player per at-bat/start/relief appearance. I think the best case scenario is MLB plays 120 games this year with 100 games being the most likely scenario. Therefore, my theory was I wanted the most talented player available.

Below is the team I drafted along with analysis of each player. The analysis is speaking as if we are having a 162 game season:

Gerrit Cole: I was prepared to take Jacob deGrom if Cole was taken. On a per start basis (on a 5×5 scale) Cole is the best pitcher available. If Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are healthy Cole has the highest likelihood of winning 20 games.

Bryce Harper: I wanted to draft the best hitter who provided at least 10 stolen bases. I believe Harper is underrated; he’s still young, plays in a great home ballpark, a very good lineup and should steal 10-15 bases with a lot of power and account stats.

Ozzie Albies: I wrote about him here.

Aaron Judge: If he plays a full season, he’s a steal at this pick.

Marcus Semien: He’s improved for four straight seasons. He will hit atop the lineup and is so good defensively he should play at least 150-plus games. The advanced offensive statistics suggest last season wasn’t a fluke.

Shohei Ohtani: I wrote about Ohtani here.

Liam Hendricks & Taylor Rogers: I think Hendricks keeps the job all year. He’s easily the best pitcher in the bullpen and Bob Melvin is very loyal to his closers. Rogers may lose some saves because he’s left handed but his base rate statistics suggest he’s extremely good. If Rogers was “the guy” for every save chance he would be a top five closer.

Tommy Edman: I wrote about Edman here.

Byron Buxton: Would you be surprised if he leads the league in steals? I know he’s been hurt the past few years, but in a shortened season the odds he plays the full year increases. I project 16 home runs and 29 stolen bases with enough runs to be relevant. His biggest problem has been health and not skill set. When drafting in the middle rounds I will gladly take a chance on the player with a super star skill set.

Mitch Garver: He was extremely lucky last year and he will only play about 50% of the time. He’s not hitting 31 home runs but I am only projecting 19, which seems reasonable. Also, I picked Garver because I needed home runs and I wanted to get a catcher who could provide power.

Paul DeJong: very underrated player. He’s going to hit fourth in a good lineup and should hit 30 home runs with a decent average. He’s good enough defensively that he should play 150-plus games.

Yuli Gurriel: At this point in the draft he was the best first baseman available and the drop off after him was pretty steep. Like Garver, the power last year is not going to be repeated but I think he should hit 21ish home runs and that’s all I am asking for.

Omar Narverz: He’s going to get 65% of the plate appearances; his home ballpark is a big upgrade compared to Seattle and he probably hits fifth or sixth in the lineup.

Justin Upton: I love the lineup and before the injury riddled 2019 season he was very consistent. He’s 32 and is heading towards the right-side of the aging curve but at this price he’s worth the pick. Also, when Ohtani doesn’t play Upton probably bats fourth.

Christian Walker: a lot of fantasy experts are not optimistic about Walker and I see it. However, the Diamondbacks are going to try to win in 2020 and Walker performed well enough last year that he should be safe for 2-months before there are whispers for someone else to take his job.

Brian Anderson: if he played on a better team and in any other ballpark (besides the Giants) he would be picked 100 picks earlier. His hard-hit rate is more than Nolan Areando for example. The Marlins, at the top of the order is very competent which means Anderson should get enough accounting statistics. Also, he has OF and 3B eligibility. In a shortened season position eligibility is so useful.

Dylan Carlson: if he played a full year he’s a 20/20 candidate. I drafted him to protect my Tommy Edman pick.

Josh James: Eno Sarris loves James so I took a shot.

Ender Inciarte: he was good for four years before he had a bad injury plagued season last year. The Braves don’t really have an every day CF and he’s really good defensively. Also, before last season he was a sure bet for 20 stolen bases. Lastly. if Buxton gets hurt Inciarte is my hedge for stolen bases.

Anthony DeSclafani: I draft him every seasons it seems like. For some reason I keep thinking he’s going to be break out eventually but if he doesn’t he’s one of the best fifth starters in baseball.

AJ Puk: he benefits from a shortened season because an innings cap doesn’t negatively effect his fantasy value now.

Dylan Cease: he’s a home run pitcher; he’s either really good and takes a step forward or I drop him after three weeks.

Tommy LaStella: was his 2019 legitimate? The numbers say yes, but the sample size is small. At this ADP I will take chance on him. He’s projected to leadoff in front of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Ohtani and Upton. If he’s not hitting I’ll drop him.

Austin Voth: he is currently in the bullpen but I don’t believe Joe Ross will not be in the rotation for more than two weeks.

Randal Grichuk: he’s safe for playing time and over a full season he hits .240 with 30-plus home runs with room for 5 stolen bases.

Zach Eflin: I believed in him last season and he disappointed. At this price I want to see if he can return to the K% in 2018. If not, I will drop him.

Steven Matz: he averaged a strikeout per inning last season and since he plays in the NL East he’s going to have some good matchups. Maybe he stays healthy and maybe he takes a step forward. If not, I will drop him.

Carter Kieboom: he is probably the Nationals starting third baseman all year. He has SS eligibility and should hit 20-25 home runs with maybe 10 stolen bases. Honestly, if I need starting pitcher in week one I probably drop him.

Forrest Whitley: total shot in the dark. He struggled in the first half of the season but looked great towards the end. The Astros rotation is mediocre so if he’s pitching well I can’t see the Astros leaving him in the minors.

If we knew Shohei Ohtani was the every day DH he would be a borderline top 10 hitter. That’s how good his tools and offensive production are. For my projections I’m only valuing him as a hitter. If I draft him I’m never going to use him as a pitcher. The simple reason is in NFBC leagues pitchers a locked in for a full week while hitters can be benched and started twice a week.

His hitting is far more valuable than his pitching in 2020. I have no idea how many innings he will throw per game and I have no idea how good the stuff or the command will be. It’s very possible he only throws 70 innings and averages 3-4 innings per start. The reason why I’m not fretting about the pitching is because his offensive production is elite.

Below are my projections if he plays 120 games as a DH-only. My projection assumes he gets days off against lefties, for rehab starts and to still justify the Albert Pujols contract.

Based on those numbers he’s my 21^st rated hitter. Looking at the last two weeks of ADP data at NFBC, Ohtani’s average ADP is 116.6. That seems awfully late for the amount of talent he has. I think the Market is pricing in not a lot of playing time, his DH-only position, and the hassle/frustration it’s going to be every week from a roster management perspective.

I can definitely understand the latter. It’s going to be really frustrating to only have him play 3 out of 4 games during the Monday-Thursday period and only playing 1 game during the Friday-Sunday period.

However, let’s look at the numbers if we averaged out his numbers with another player. I choose Adam Eaton. He provides similar offensive production and has an average ADP of 208 so he’s easily available.

Below is my full year projection of Eaton:

Now let’s see what happens if we combine Eaton and Ohtani’s numbers. One projection assumes 400 at-bats (ABs) from Ohtani and 120 from Eaton. Another projection assumes 350 ABs from Ohtani and 170 from Eaton.

I personally think these numbers are reasonable. If you don’t feel that way create your own combined projection.

What happens when I put these numbers into my cheat sheet? This combined player becomes 27^th and 34^th ranked hitters. I admit it’s very possible I won’t get 520 at-bats if I combined the output of both players because there will still be days where Ohtani is in my starting lineup and he’s not playing.

However, the reason I did this exercise is I wanted to get an idea how much of a discount should I apply to the uncertainty the Market is pricing in. I believe the Market is too pessimistic on Ohtani. At his current ADP the Market is only assuming he gets 300 ABs. Maybe that happens but I doubt it. The Market is not pricing in enough of the upside he provides. If Ohtani gets 450 ABs or more he’s going to be a lot of winning NFBC leagues.

Baseball is by far the most driven across the major sports. The NBA and NFL have caught on to analytics and big data, but baseball utilizes this information more efficiently. This has impacted fantasy baseball in both positive and negative ways.

20 years ago Joc Pederson probably would have played every day, which would have improved his rate statistics (runs and RBI) and (probably) lowered his batting average. Pederson is a better fantasy player because he’s platooned against lefties.

In the last few years teams have been giving players more time off. They do this to keep players fresh throughout the season and to get more output. By that I mean, is it better to have Lorenzo Cain play 155 games at an 80% energy level of 135 at 95% energy level? I’m sure there is data that supports the latter but it just makes intuitive sense that players perform better when they’re more rested.

Strictly platooning, especially for teams like the Tampa Rays, has become standard operating procedure. What’s good about platooning is it gives players days off and improves the ability for the team to score more runs.

The catch is teams can’t platoon everyone. Some players will have to play every day because A) their defense is that good (i.e. Marcus Semien) and/or B) their offense is too good to be on the bench (i.e. Joey Gallo).

Usually guys drafted in the middle rounds of drafts have some sort of perceived deficiency which is some combination of:

1. They already don’t play every
2. They hit in the bottom third of the batting order
3. Their on the field skill set is flawed
4. Their statistical output is perceived to be average-to-less-than-average

Sometimes these players in the middle rounds could vault up the rankings next year like Rafael Devers. Sometimes these players get hurt (i.e. Joey Gallo) and allow players on the bench or in the minors to play every day like Danny Santana and DJ LeMahieu.

A lot of times fantasy owners can make educated guesses as to who play in the event of an injury and/or a benching. It’s important to protect (or hedge) your draft picks and lock in the value you drafted.

Let’s take a step back. Usually I draft the setup relievers for my closers. For example, I used an early pick on Blake Treinen. After the first five weeks of the season I picked up Liam Hendricks and Yusmeiro Petit because I wanted to hedge saves.

In the past fantasy owners didn’t have to apply this strategy to hitters because in the past the hitters on the bench weren’t that good or the team didn’t have a good prospect waiting in the minors. However, with player development being so good rookies hit the ground running when getting called up. Also, a lot of the above average talented players are on the teams that have high hopes for the playoffs. Seriously, compare the bench players for the Athletics, Reds, Brewers, Braves, Yankees, Dodgers versus the Giants, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Mariners and Marlins.

I play in NFBC leagues and this year I will be applying the handcuff strategy to hitters. A handcuff is someone who doesn’t have a job at the start of the year but figures to play every day if the person ahead of them on the depth chart gets hurt or loses their job. Ideally this handcuff player provides similar statistical numbers as the injured player.

The handcuff strategy should be used players who could provide significant profit if he plays every day according to your league format. Another way to think of the handcuff strategy is to think of it as insurance for your team.

Here’s an example. Suppose you draft Michael Brantley in the 10^th round. I recommend drafting and even reaching for Kyle Tucker. Its possible Tucker plays every day anyway because Josh Reddick isn’t as good as Tucker, but with Dusty Baker being the manager there’s no guarantee he realizes Tucker is a better player. The bottom line is there are many scenarios where I can see Tucker playing every day eventually.

Below are other examples of handcuff’s to draft:

Player Commentary:

• I’ve already about why I’m a believer in Tommy Edman but a lot of very smart analysts have reservations about him. Other than Dylan Carlson I don’t see anyone else getting every day at-bats in left field. If Carlson played a full season, I think he’s a 20/20 candidate.
• Rowdy Tellez hits the ball hard. His hard hit rate is nearly identical to Kyle Schwarber and Gary Sanchez. Tellez is for deeper formats but I think he was unlucky last year. Travis Shaw is currently locked in at first base, but Shaw was awful last year and he could be done.
• Wilmer Flores may be the Giants third best hitter on the roster. He can play any infield spot so there are numerous opportunities for him to play. Also, it makes sense for the Giants to play him because he would be a great trade candidate at the deadline.
• Last year Miguel Andújar was drafted in the 7^th round and now no one wants him. He’s not a good defender at third base, but if Gio Urshela or Luke Voit start off slow I can easily see him taking their spot. Another scenario is if an outfielder gets hurt and Andújar plays every day at DH. Aaron judge is already dealing with shoulder issues and Giancarlo Stanton only played in 18 games last year.
• Kevin Kiermaier has averaged 105 games played the past four seasons. Kiermaier is an excellent defender. If he didn’t have injury concerns the Rays would play him every day. The Rays traded for Manuel Margot and he’s the obvious platoon bat for Kiermaier. Margot doesn’t turn 26 until the end of September so he’s at his physical peak and most importantly, he’s the only true center fielder the Rays have. Therefore, if Margot played a full season he could hit 10 home runs with 25 stolen bases and 70 runs.
• Ryan Mountcastle has to be in the majors sooner rather than later. He could play at first base or DH, but I would bet all my capital Mountcastle would be a better player than Chris Davis if they got the same number of at-bats.
• Its very possible Jake Lamb is released at the end of spring training, but for some reason I can’t quit him.
• I can see a scenario where Oscar Mercado is the right fielder and Delino DeShields is the center fielder. In addition to DeShields, the Indians have Greg Allen, Franmil Reyes, Jake Bauers and the long forgotten Bradley Zimmer vying for an outfield spot and DH. At this point the Indians need more offense than defense so whoever gets hot probably gets the first crack at playing time. If DeShields played a full season he could easily steal 30 bases.
• As of now, the odd man out of the Dodgers lineup is Gavin Lux. If Joc Peterson was traded Lux probably would have played every day at second base. However, with Peterson back Cody Bellinger spends more time at first base and Max Muncy at second base. This past September Keith Law said, “he’s [Lux] a likely All-Star for a long time to come.” If this is true, I have to believe the Dodgers find a way to get him in the lineup 3-4 days a week. Lux probably plays every day only if Muncy, Bellinger or Justin Turner gets hurt.