If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
Last year I wasn’t a Zack Wheeler believer because of his inconsistent command from batter to batter in his brief showcase in 2013. Specifically, I thought he walked way too many batters and the fact he would have too many long at-bats against batters (i.e. 7-8-9 hitters) he should be able to get out in 1-3 pitches.
At the start of 2014 he changed his delivery for the better. He reduced some of the movement in his delivery, which helped him make his delivery more repeatable. This alteration helped, but he still struggled with the walks. Last year he was 4th in the majors in walks allowed.
When I saw him pitch I only saw a thrower and not a pitcher. From start to start I saw him make the same mistakes over and over again, which isn’t atypical for a young pitcher. An example of this was he would always struggle throwing the fastball on the outer half of the plate to righties. Another example is in two strike counts he would throw the slider down in the dirt to try to get batters to swing and miss, which batters wouldn’t do. The reason is hitters know it’s going to be a ball when the ball leaves the hand.
The positive takeaway is all of these things are correctable. The question is can he make the necessary adjustments. He has stuff for days; the fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 98-99 mph; the curveball and slider that can miss bats on both sides of the plate.
Some fantasy owners may be swayed by his second half numbers, but upon closer inspection it looks like he got lucky with the ERA because the walk rate and strike percentage were essentially the same as the first half.
| Splits | ERA | BABIP | K% | BB% | HR/FB | LOB% | Strk% |
| 1st Half | 3.9 | .323 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 70.8% | 61.6% |
| 2nd Half | 3.04 | .285 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 76.9% | 60.9% |
Wheeler has the upside to be a top 20 fantasy pitcher if everything clicks, but from what I saw last year I don’t see that happening. I am very curious to see what he his ADP is next year. My guess is he’ll likely be drafted in the 40-50 range in mixed leagues, which is too high for me because the likelihood of him putting it all together is less than 25%. If he slips to the 60s I’ll gladly roll the dice.
My 2015 projection for Wheeler is 200 IP, 195 Ks, 3.55 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 12 wins.
