If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
In 2013, at the start of spring training, Zack Greinke was diagnosed with elbow inflammation and at the time of the diagnosis was seen a minor injury. That proved to be true as he was able to begin the year on the opening day roster. Other than Carlos Quentin breaking his collar bone Greinke had a healthy 2013 season.
In 2014 Greinke missed time at the beginning of the year with a calf strain but that occurred in mid-March when the Dodgers played the Diamondbacks in Austrailia. In mid-August Greinke was dealing with elbow soreness and at the time, it was believed he could miss a couple of starts because it. It turns out nothing happened and he was able to continue pitching.
Last year was highest strikeout rate since 2011. In last year’s fantasy guide I said the reason for the lowered strikeout rate in 2012-13 was due to the decreased usage of the slider. I thought he wasn’t throwing the slider because his elbow was hurting, but in fact it was the other way around. He started throwing the slider less to protect his elbow.
Last year the usage of the slider ticked back up to pre-2012 levels and the strikeout rate increased. However, the strikeout rate did not increase because of the slider. In fact the strikeout rate of the slider was below average compared to previously in his career (image below).
The reason why the strikeout rate was so high was he started throwing the changeup much more. He started throwing it more often coming off the DL in 2013 but last year he threw it more than 15% of the time and it’s a true bat miser.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence he started throwing the slider more in 2014 and he started having elbow problems. Technically he has not missed any time to this point but he has dealt with elbow issues the past two seasons. The severity of these issues is unknown, but I believe it should be factored into his projection for next season.
My projection for next season is a 190 IP, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP with 186 Ks.
