Michael Saunders’ 2015 Fantasy Value

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Michael Saunders was traded to the Blue Jays and is likely going to be on the better end of a timeshare with Kevin Pillar. Determining how effective he’ll against right handed pitching depends on how big of a sample you want to look at. The table below shows his various numbers against righties including: his career, his career on the road and his aggregated numbers from 2012-14.

vs. RHP PA AVG BABIP K% BB% HR/FB
Career 1,297 .235 .288 24.1% 10.1% 11.2%
Road Career 692 .253 .312 24.1% 10.1% 12.4%
2012-14 869 .251 .303 23.6% 9.9% 13.8%

In regards to the batting average I think his road numbers are more indicative of what I’m expecting him to hit next year. In fact I think he’ll add 5-10 points because of the home ballpark and the other good AL East ballparks he’ll get to hit in. I also think he’ll hit an extra 2-5 home runs too because of the ballparks.

In 2012 he was one home run away from being a 20/20 player so it’s possible he could still do it again, but I have doubts if the stolen bases can approach those stolen base totals. First, his stolen base totals and stolen base success rate have decreased significantly year-over-year the past three seasons. Second, the Blue Jays ranked 24th in the majors in stolen base attempts last year; the counter to that is they ranked 6th in 2013 so it’s possible the team will return to its stealing ways.

If there’s a player who could have a 2012 Josh Reddick breakout season it’s Saunders. I’m projecting a .258 batting average, 22 home runs and 11 stolen bases with 480 plate appearances.

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