If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Manny Machado has an inflated fantasy value within the fantasy community because fantasy owners take into account the elite defense he provides and neglect the subpar offense. For example, he’s never hit more than 14 home runs, stole more than six bases, drove in more than 71 runs or had a batting average greater than .283.

On top of the lack luster production he’s had two major knee surgeries within one calendar year. As of early November he is on track to be ready for Spring Training, but I have questions whether he can hold up for an entire season. If you watch how he got injured last year you’ll see the injury happened on a seemingly routine play, which indicates there’s a higher likelihood he’ll reaggrevate it again. Also, since he’s hurt his knee twice probably means he won’t steal bases.

When he got hurt he had 12 home runs and was on pace to hit 20, which could create optimism his power in 2015. However, I’m not buying it. First, his HR/FB rate was 14.8%. His career rate before 2014 was 9.3%. He’s still a high ground ball hitter (he hits ground balls 48% of the time) and in order hit 20-plus with a high ground ball rate he’ll have to have another career high HR/FB rate.

If he can play a full year he’ll perform slightly better than his 2013 numbers because he plays in a bam box and he’ll be a year older and stronger, but he’ll probably be over drafted again in 2015 and it certainly will not be me.

I project 500 ABs with a .278 AVG, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 71 R and 1 SB.