If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.
On April 26, 2013 I said, “Garrett Richards has really good stuff; his fastball and cutter sat at 95 mph and maxed out at 97 mph. Richards is a reliever masquerading as starter. His biggest problem is the lack of command of his secondary pitches, which is primarily the slider. Without command of the slider there’s no velocity separation in the cutter and fastball, which makes those pitches easier to hit. Speaking of the fastball, if he misses up in the zone it becomes flat and more hittable.”
Three things happened last year. First the command of slider improved. Second, he threw his fastball a lot more. Third, overall he was more consistent with the command and showed a better feel for pitching.
In 2013 he split his time between the bullpen and in the rotation. Starting in late July he was in the rotation for the rest of the season. Below is a breakdown of his last 13 starts in 2013 compared to the 26 starts in 2014. *Unless otherwise noted all the tables referenced will be using this date range.
| Splits | ERA | WHIP | BABIP | AVG | K% | BB% | HR/FB |
| 2013 | 3.72 | 1.37 | .314 | .275 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 11.3% |
| 2014 | 2.61 | 1.04 | .264 | .201 | 24.2% | 7.5% | 3.7% |
Three major statistics stand out: the BABIP, HR/FB and strike out rate. Richards has great stuff but the HR/FB rate should regress and so should the BABIP. Since he misses so many bats and generates weak contact the BABIP will likely be in the .285-.295 range. A major reason why the strikeout rate ticked up was the command of the slider improved (table below).
| Splits | AVG | K% | BB% | Swng% | Whiff% | Strk% |
| 2013 | .228 | 32.2% | 8.9% | 44.9% | 35.0% | 59.6% |
| 2014 | .156 | 44.0% | 4.2% | 43.1% | 42.7% | 65.7% |
In regards to the fastball, the velocity improved almost two mph more (image below from BrooksBaseball.net)
Last year he suffered a freak accident trying to cover first base in late August. According to Jeff Fletcher (as of December 30th) Richards will not be ready for Opening Day, but will be ready by mid-May.
Overall, he improved dramatically last year and those improvements should repeat itself in 2015. That said, there is going to be some regression in the HR/FB rate and the BABIP. If he doesn’t pitch until mid-May he’ll probably lose somewhere between 7-10 starts.
My 2015 projection for Richards is 160 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 154 Ks and 10 wins.
