DFS Starting Pitcher Rankings & Notes for Wednesday

Below you’ll find DFS and streamer rankings. I classified the pitchers by category and they’re ranked from best to worst in each category. I didn’t write about all the pitchers, but I chose the best options available. You’ll find the pitcher’s name, the DraftKings salary and where the game is being played.

The rankings are slanted toward a GPP, but the write-ups provide (hopefully) the information necessary to fill out a double-up lineup. With so many aces going you’re going to win or lose based on which ace you use regardless of the format so I’m focusing on the aces and one. Also, I’m going to use two aces and find cheap hitters.

Tier I: The Aces

Clayton Kershaw: $12,900 – TEX

Yesterday Brett Anderson was my second best pitcher because how inept the Rangers offense has been since against lefties. Anderson didn’t do as well as I thought he would, but after the first inning he settled down and mowed down the Rangers. Kershaw is vastly superior to Anderson and the Rangers will be without a DH.

Carlos Martinez: $8,400 – @MIN

I bet a lot of fantasy players will have Martinez in their lineups as either their ace or second starting pitcher. The Twins have the second lowest wOBA, seventh highest strikeout rate and eighth lowest hard hit average in the majors against righties.

Martinez, in his last six starts, has been unbelievable. He has a 28.4 percent strikeout rate, 1.16 ERA and 1.0866 WHIP. He also has a 9.0 percent walk rate and if you’ve read me in the past I do not like using walkers. Martinez falls into the rare Tyson Ross class in that they strikeout and walk a lot of batters, but they do not get shelled because the incredibly high ground ball rate, which strands a lot of runners (Martinez’s strand rate during this stretch is 94.5 percent).

Some may call this a trap because Martinez has pitched so well and the Twins are so inept against righties. Others may say he is the perfect complement to their ace and has more upside some of the higher priced options.

Felix Hernandez: $10,300 – SF

I’ve been saying all season I don’t believe the Giants offense is very good, but at some point I have to start believing what the data is telling me. Against righties, they are sixth in the majors in wOBA, third lowest strikeout rate, and third best in-play rate. Basically, they don’t strikeout and put the ball in-play.

For the year Hernandez’s walk rate (7.7 percent) is the highest it’s been since 2008. You may be thinking his last blowup start inflated the walk rate, but it was 7.3 percent before that start. He’s been able to limit the damage from walks due an extremely high ground ball rate (60.2 percent), which is the highest it’s been since 2007.

The walk rate is concerning, but he’s not giving up a lot of hard contact. In fact, his hard hit rate is the lowest it’s been since 2011. Obviously he did look good in his last start against the Astros and I wonder what his price would have been if that start never occurred (I think his price would at least be $300-500 more).

David Price: $11,300 – @CIN

For the year the Reds have the fifth best wOBA against lefties. However, at the same time they’re only 23rd in hard hit average (against lefties), which implies they’ve either been lucky with BABIP or lucky in the extra base hit department. The biggest question I have with Price is the strikeouts. His strikeout rate (21.9 percent) is the lowest it’s been since 2010. He has two starts where he’s struck out 11 or more, but he’s also had four starts where he’s struck out three or less. The Reds are in the middle of pack in regards to strikeout rate so it’s hard to see him having a big day in the strikeout department. In regards to hard hit rate it’s the second highest of his career, which indicates he has not been as dominant as the past.

Johnny Cueto: $10,000 – DET

You may think Cueto gets an edge because they game is in the NL and the Tigers lose the benefit of the DH. However, the Tigers have been using the likes of Tyler Collins and Rajai Davis at that position since Victor Martinez went on the DL so the loss of the DH will be minimal. Of all the pitchers mentioned Cueto is pitching the second best, but the matchup is extremely difficult.

Against righties, the Tigers have the fourth highest wOBA, eighth lowest strikeout rate and seventh highest hard hit average. What’s concerning is Cueto’s hard hit rate is the highest it’s been since 2010 and the ground ball rate is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year in 2008. Cueto could do really well, but the Tigers make a lot of hard contact and he’s allowing more hard contact.

Madison Bumgarner: $10,700 – @SEA

Bumgarner’s matchup is the most intriguing of all the pitchers I’m writing about because it’s difficult to understand the Mariners offense against lefties. They have the 13th best wOBA, but they have the second best hard hit rate. They have the ninth highest in-play rate and they don’t strikeout (12th lowest walk rate). The fact they’re making so much hard contact is the primary reason why I am ranking him below David Price. Another reason is when two pitchers are very close I will always lean towards the pitcher playing in the NL.

Similar to David Price, Bumgarner is not striking out as many batters as the previous couple of years and is a high variance pitcher in regards to his strikeout totals.

Michael Pineda: $8,600 – MIA

Pineda was really good to begin the season, but in his last five starts he has not been very good. The table below compares his first seven starts compared to this last five. The biggest thing you will notice is he’s striking out less batters and allowing much more hard contact.

Splits K% BB% BABIP LOB% Hard%
First 7 29.5% 1.6% .339 77.8% .140
Last 5 18.3% 4.6% .375 61.9% .244

For the year the Marlins are 25th in wOBA, 17th in hard hit average, and 15th in strikeout rate (all the statistics are against righties). Basically, the Marlins are an average offense and the addition of the DH doesn’t improve their offense (my guess is Ichiro will be the DH or he’ll play the outfield and maybe Giancarlo Stanton will be the DH). Pineda could have a great game, but I’m not counting on it.

Tier II: Value Pick

Jesse Chavez: $6,800 – SD

Chavez is not an ace, but I wanted to make special mention of him. The table below provides data for Chavez and two other pitchers mentioned in this article. Since this is a blind resume I removed the names, but what pitcher do you think is Chavez?

Splits K% BB% BABIP LOB% Hard% GB%
A 19.2% 6.5% .298 72.4% .185 41.2%
B 21.9% 5.3% .295 75.8% .160 37.6%
C 22.6% 4.6% .290 81.2% .168 40.4%

Do you have your choice? Player A is Chavez; B is David Price; C is Madison Bumgarner. I’m not indicating Chavez is as good as the two other pitchers, but his salary is nearly half, which means he could be a tremendous value.

Unlike the Marlins, the Padres will be aided greatly by the DH. I bet Matt Kemp gets pushed to DH and Melvin Upton Jr. will play the outfield. The Padres are an average offense against righties. On the road they have a .292 wOBA and .282 wOBA at home so the offense has been inept to below average. For the year they have seventh lowest hard hit average and eighth highest ground ball rate so when they make contact its weakly hit ground balls. Of all the pitchers mentioned Chavez may be the best value.

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