The biggest difference in Rizzo’s advanced peripherals was his BABIP; in 2012 it was .310 and last year it was .258. With a limited sample size in the majors it’s difficult to judge what his true BABIP should be. Based on his contact rates in the minors and in 2012, he profiles as someone who should have a normal BABIP in the .290-.300 range. If that is indeed true, then his .258 BABIP seems insanely low and should improve in 2014. He has struggled against lefties the past two seasons. For example, he has a slash line of .196/.269/.347. However, in his last two years in triple-a (in 184 plate appearances) he has a slash line of .309/.382/.558 against lefties. Obviously we’re working with a small sample size (both in the majors and minors) and the quality of pitching could be a question too, but at least he’s shown the ability to handle lefties, which provides optimism for 2014.

Let’s talk about the positives. His isolated power increased from .178 to .186, which was mainly due to hitting more doubles. Based on his scouting reports as prospect it’s possible more of those doubles turn into home runs because he has the raw power to hit 25-plus. His walk rate increased three percentage points, but what’s more impressive is the reduction in swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone (6.5 percentage points to 27.5 percent).

His down season could make him a draft day bargain. When young players struggle and there’s a small sample size I put more weight on the scouting reports when he was a prospect. Specifically, I look at the raw tools because a wise scout one said, “always bet on the tools.” I question if a bounce back is possible I always look at the raw tools because when in doubt always bet on tools. Rizzo has the tools to become an all-star type of player if everything rolls right. That’s enough for me.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.