Michael Wacha’s 2014 Fantasy Baseball Projection

The table provides an aggregate totals of Wacha’s entire 2013 season in the majors (regular season plus playoffs for a total of 95.3 innings).

ERA WHIP AVG BABIP K% BB% HR/FB%
2.74 1.04 .198 .250 25.9% 8.2% 7.7%

He’s primarily a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and changeup) who relied on fastball command to get outs. Even though he only throws two pitches both of them are extremely good. His fastball sits in the 93-95 mph range and can touch 98 mph. Since he’s so tall he has an extremely high release point and gives him a big stride. When you combine these two facts when he throws the fastball (or any pitch) the pitch is going to look two to three mph faster than what it really is because of the downward plane and the deep release point (where he lets go of the ball). He throws a circle changeup with a lot of deception and late fade that is the perfect companion to the fastball.

Don’t get me wrong, Wacha looked really good, but there are red flags. If it wasn’t for the .250 BABIP the 1.04 WHIP would have been much higher. In general I’m not a fan of two-pitch pitchers sustaining elite level numbers because it’s only a matter of time hitters will figure him out. When a pitcher only throws two pitches hitters will have a 50 percent chance of guessing correctly which pitch will be thrown. The biggest red flag is Wacha’s great performance down the stretch and during the playoffs was seen by everyone, which means you’ll probably have to pay full price to acquire him because the hype surrounding him will be a lot higher compared to his young contemporaries (Danny Salazar and Yordano Ventura). That means he will have to hit those lofty expectations in order to get any sort of profit.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

This entry was posted in Fantasy Baseball. Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.