Who Gets the Cardinals Final Rotation Spot?

With Chris Carpenter likely missing the entire 2013 season, it provides an opportunity for one of three players to take his place. Before the Carpenter news, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly all looked to be long shots to make the Cardinals opening day roster. Now it appears any of them have a legitimate chance to make the rotation on opening day. Below are player profiles about each player respectively. Please note the format for the “ADP” section reads as follows: ADP: positional draft position (overall draft position). For example, Shelby Miller  is currently the 67th starting pitcher being taken and is going 255th overall. All ADPs are from Mock Draft Central.

Shelby Miller
Throws: R | Age: 22 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP | ADP: 67 (255)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

2011

A+

20

53

2

81

20

2.89

1.13

37.0%

9.1%

2011

AA

20

86.7

9

89

33

2.70

1.21

25.1%

9.3%

2012

AAA

21

136.7

11

160

50

4.74

1.38

27.0%

8.4%

2012

MLB

21

13.7

1

16

4

1.32

0.95

29.6%

7.4%

To begin the 2012 season, Miller’s first 17 starts in Triple-A were less than perfect; he posted a 6.17 ERA (due to a lack of command). However, during his last 10 starts he dominated hitters with a 2.88 ERA with 70 strikeouts in only 59 innings. In only 13 big league innings he continued to flash his dominance striking out nearly 30% of the batters he faced. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can touch 98 if he needs it. The fastball has good sink and boring action that jumps on hitters because of his extension. His changeup and curveball (looks like a slider), can both miss a ton of bats. As the 2012 season wore on he metamorphosed from a “grip it and rip it” thrower to pitcher who relied less on the fastball and sequenced his secondary pitches more frequently. If he begins the year in the Cardinals rotation he’s a top 30 fantasy starting pitcher.

Trevor Rosenthal
Throws: R | Age: 23 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP/SP | ADP: 44 (299)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

2011

A

21

120.3

7

133

39

4.11

1.25

26.1%

7.7%

2012

AA

22

94

8

83

37

2.78

1.11

21.9%

9.8%

2012

AAA

22

15

0

21

5

4.2

1.07

35.6%

8.5%

2012

MLB

22

22.7

0

25

7

2.78

0.93

28.1%

7.9%

Rosenthal began the year in Double-A as a low end prospect, but at the end of the year he was getting extremely important outs during the playoffs, where he struck out 15 batters in 8.67 innings for the Cardinals. His fastball is a legit 80 grade; in short bursts it can be 97-100 mph, but if he’s starting it takes a dip, but not that much (93-97). He didn’t use his curveball, changeup or slider very much in the majors so it’s difficult to evaluate. It’s mid-February right now and his place on the Cardinals roster is in question. He could be in the rotation or the bullpen. If he starts the year as a starter, he’s a borderline top 35-40 starting pitcher. If he joins the bullpen he’s going to be an elite closer.

 Joe Kelly
Throws: R | Age: 25 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP | ADP: N/A (N/A)

Year

LVL

AGE

IP

W

SO

BB

ERA

WHIP

SO%

BB%

2011

A+

23

72.7

5

62

34

2.6

1.24

20.3%

11.1%

2011

AA

23

59.3

6

51

25

5.01

1.60

19.3%

9.5%

2012

AAA

24

72.3

2

45

21

2.86

1.33

15.1%

7.0%

2012

MLB

24

107

5

75

36

3.53

1.38

16.4%

7.9%

Of the three pitchers vying for the last rotation spot Kelly has the lowest ceiling. His command comes and goes and secondary offerings (changeup and curveball) are average and can look solid average at times. He does have a major league fastball that sits 92-94 when he’s starting; it can reach the upper 90s in bursts coming out of the pen. However, because of the lack of a consistent, quality breaking ball left handers will hit him hard; lefties hit .318 against Kelly last year. If he makes the rotation he’s maybe a top 60-65 starting pitcher; it’s only a matter of time before Shelby Miller takes his spot though.

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