Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Villar’s skill set doesn’t offer a lot of real life upside, but he offers a ton of fantasy upside because of his plus-plus speed. After his call-up to the majors he had 18 stolen bases in 58 games. At that rate, if he played 145 games he would have had 45 stolen bases, which would have him tied for third most in the majors. Since he’s a plus-plus runner he should have a higher BABIP, which helps explain the .362 BABIP last year. However, with that really high BABIP he only had a .243 batting average, which means if the BABIP regresses how low will his batting average be?

The scouting reports suggest he’ll struggle against right handed pitchers due to the flat plane of his swing. Against righties he had a .374 BABIP compared to a .333 BABIP against lefties last year. I expect his batting average to regress against righties which means he’ll likely be a .230 hitter who could steal 40-plus bases. Even though he’s not a good hitter he’ll get every opportunity to play every day so the odds of him reaching 40-plus stolen base target is extremely possible. In dynasty formats be careful about keeping him because Carlos Correa, the number one pick in 2012s draft, could be in the majors as early as 2014. And with second and third already filled with solid players, Villar may end up as a bench only player in 2015.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Rosario was only limited to 121 games last year because he missed three weeks with a calf strain in September. If you combine the injury concerns with playing the catcher position and the fact he’s a below average defender begs the question, “how much longer will (or can) he stay at the catcher position?” Since he only played four games at first base last year suggest the Rockies are still going to play him primarily at catcher. From a fantasy perspective the ideal situation is his workload mirrors what the Indians are doing with the Carlos Santana, spending half of the time at first base/DH.

It’s a force of habit to review the home-road splits of any Rockies player before I start their evaluation. The table below shows his home-road splits the past two seasons. It looks as though a lot of his numbers are benefiting from playing in Coors.

Other than his dramatic home-road splits, the statistic that jumped out to me was the decrease in HR/FB rate. For example, the HR/FB rate decreased eight percentage points, but there is hope for optimism. First, his road HR/FB rates were identical the past two years (19 percent). Last year his HR/FB rate at home was only 14.5 percent and in 2012 it was 28 percent. I believe he hits for more power at home next year, which means he should hit 25-plus home runs in 2014. It looks as though his .292 batting average was fueled by a .344 BABIP. You may be thinking the BABIP was derived from his home ballpark, but in fact it was inflated while on the road as he had a .360 BABIP. I bet his batting average regresses back to the .270ish range rather than the 290s. Also, do not overlook his stolen base potential as he has stolen four the past two seasons.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Where do we begin? Last year I said Castro was the safest shortstop available and I stood by those words, drafting him in three of four leagues. Not only did proclaim he was the safest shortstop I said something to the effect of, “Castro has the raw talent to be super star, but has yet to put it all together over a full season.” Any time we see a young player play really well it’s only natural to assume that the player is going to get even better because the body and mind will mature. However, it’s possible for young players in this current generation do not get dramatically better as they age. In fact in Jeff Zimmerman’s piece he theorizes (with data) that young players play the best when they first get to the majors, sustain that performance for a few years then begin their decline. If Zimmerman is correct is it possible we have already seen Castro’s ultimate ceiling? I’m not at that point yet, but it is something I’m strongly considering if he has another down year.

In terms of his 2013 season there were quite a few negative trends. For example, his strikeout rate increased four percentage points while walk rate decreased one percentage point. I’m not really concerned with the walk rate because he’s never been a patient hitter and besides, he has shown throughout his career he knows how to put barrel on the ball with being patient.

Before 2013 Castro has always been able to smash non-fastballs as he had a .289 batting average. However, last year he only hit .219 against non-fastballs. A lot of decrease in performance, in general, can be deduced from poor BABIPs, which implies he was unlucky and is likely to rebound because of the three plus years of solid output. For his career he only has a stolen base success rate of 65 percent, which is extremely low. He’s still a plus runner, but I have to believe the Cubs are going to strongly consider limiting his stolen base attempts moving forward. His 2013 was so bad that fantasy owners considering drafting him have to basically take a leap of faith because all the data suggests he was either unlucky or really bad; it depends how much you believe in 2013 versus the three years prior. I think Castro is a great buy low.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.