Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I’ve never been a Jennings guy. He’s always been one of those players who are drafted highly because of his scouting report as a prospect and not because of the actual production he’s produced in the majors. For example in the last three seasons, he’s never had a batting average above .259; he’s never had more than 14 home runs; he’s never scored more than 85 runs. I’m not trying to say Jennings is a bad player because Rays ballpark has suppressed his stats. The table below is a breakdown of his career home-road splits.

His fantasy baseball ceiling is Alex Rios (a good Alex Rios) because he certainly has the raw speed to steal 40-plus and he has shown mid-teens power the past two years. However, the evidence is mounting against him. His ground ball rate increased six percentage points to 48.3 percent, which implies the 18-plus home run power is not in the cards. In terms of batting average the home ballpark is not helping, but he’s also hitting a lot of popups; to his credit he reduced that, going from 18 percent to 12 percent. Since he has plus speed one would expect his BABIP to be higher, but with striking out and popping up 20 and 12 percent of the time respectively will suffocate the batting average. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has .330 BABIP next year, but the smart money says no.

What hurts his value the most is the signing of David DeJesus, who will most likely assume leadoff duties against righties and push Jennings down to the bottom third of the lineup. Overall, we’re talking about a player who will have the likes of Yunel Escobar and Jose Molina / Ryan Hanigan hitting behind him so his runs scored will most likely in the upper 60s, not the mid-80s; his stolen base success rate plummeted to only 71 percent, which could limit his stolen base potential. He probably will not provide more than 16 home runs if he continues to hit the ball on the ground 48 percent of the time. The upside is there, but the evidence that is mounting against him says otherwise.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

I’ve never been a Stanton guy. He has only averaged 130 games played the last three seasons and 120 the last two seasons. In 2012 it was a knee. Last year it was a sore foot / ankle and hamstring. When compared to the injury history of a Jacoby Ellsbury I feel more confident about Ellsbury playing a full year because some of Ellsbury’s injuries were fluky in nature where Stanton’s injuries are from his body breaking down.

He’s only had a batting average above .262 once (in 2012, with an extremely high BABIP of .344). He has never had more than 87 RBIs. After all of that he is still drafted in the third, fourth round, which is too high for me. He only provides one elite level stats in one category (home runs). The batting average will likely be in the .250-.260 range, which is average. I don’t see the batting average improving as he still struggles with breaking pitches from right handers (.228/.299/.481 career slash line). The Marlins second best hitter is Christian Yelich who is also still raw and unproven. Even though he’ll bat in the middle of the order his RBI and run opportunities will be limited because he’ll have Garret Jones and Jarrod Saltalamacchia hitting behind him. Lastly, he doesn’t steal bases. His upside may be five to six supposing he’s healthy, which is a big if. Suppose he plays a full year, he’ll probably hit .255 with 40 home runs with 90 RBI, 70 runs and two steals. That doesn’t add up to a third round pick.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Before the 2013 season I didn’t like Marte (from a fantasy perspective) because the scouting reports didn’t suggest he was ready for a breakout (specifically, he had a lot of swing and miss in his game) and the high BABIP (.333) wasn’t likely to last with a ground ball rate that high (57 percent). Since he’s an above average runner he’s more likely to have a higher BABIP, but the propensity to strikeout a lot along with a high ground ball rate told me to be pessimistic. Also, higher BABIP players who hit a lot of ground balls tend to have a wider range of outcomes. which makes them more unpredictable.

In 2013 his ground ball rate dropped six percentage points to 50.8 percent, which was still really high. He was 19th in the majors among batters with at least 400 plate appearances. His contact rate was 75.4 percent, which ranks in the bottom 20 percent of the majors.  So basically he was the same player as the scouting report suggests; he will swing and miss a lot and hit a lot of ground balls.

Last year he had a .363 BABIP, which looks unsustainable even for a fast runner like Marte. Combine last year’s BABIP and his approach at the plate tells me his batting average is likely to regress, which lowers his fantasy value across the board. A major reason why he was a top 20 outfielder last year was due to the high stolen base totals. However, if the batting average drops so will the OBP, which could limit his stolen base potential. Another hindrance on his stolen base totals could be his low career stolen base success rate of 72.6 percent (in the majors). It’s also important to note he missed a little less than a month of the season with a hand injury (strained ligament) after he struck by a pitch so his 2013 stolen bases totals about have been 50-plus.

In terms of the power, he should be a safe bet for 10-15 with maybe room for more. Overall, expectations should be tempered as his batting average should regress to the .265-.275 range and I don’t see massive upside with the stolen bases. He’s still a top 20 outfielder, but not top ten.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.