Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I’m not going to discuss his PED suspension and how it possibly affected his performance in 2013 because I have not seen any evidence showing PEDs improve a player’s performance. The biggest stat that stood out was his career highs in batting average (.303) and BABIP (.374). A lot of the BABIP came from his performance against left handed pitching. From 2008-2012 he had a slash line of .235/.318/.412 against lefties, but last year it was .352/.404/.560.  Therefore, I expect the reverse platoon split to regress, which should give him a batting average in the .250-.260 range.

Prior to 2013, his suspension year, he has averaged 150 games played the past five seasons and appears to be safe to do so again. Since it’s very likely he’ll play 150-plus games he should be able to hit 11-15 home runs with room for more. He’s will most likely bat in the bottom third of the Cardinals lineup when everyone is healthy so his run and RBI totals will be suppressed. However, he is still going to play in one of the best offenses so I expect the RBI totals in the low 70s and run totals the mid-50s.

I’m not going to discuss his PED suspension and how it possibly affected his performance in 2013 because I have not seen any evidence showing PEDs improve a player’s performance. The biggest stat that stood out was his career highs in batting average (.303) and BABIP (.374). A lot of the BABIP came from his performance against left handed pitching. From 2008-2012 he had a slash line of .235/.318/.412 against lefties, but last year it was .352/.404/.560.  Therefore, I expect the reverse platoon split to regress, which should give him a batting average in the .250-.260 range.

Prior to 2013, his suspension year, he has averaged 150 games played the past five seasons and appears to be safe to do so again. Since it’s very likely he’ll play 150-plus games he should be able to hit 11-15 home runs with room for more. He’s will most likely bat in the bottom third of the Cardinals lineup when everyone is healthy so his run and RBI totals will be suppressed. However, he is still going to play in one of the best offenses so I expect the RBI totals in the low 70s and run totals the mid-50s.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

In most cases its cheap analysis to say (about any player), “this is a contract year and this offseason he’s going to motivate himself to get in the greatest shape of his life.” However, when it comes to Sandoval and his continuous lack of #want for not being in shape and being ready to play every day, this is especially important. There’s no doubt in my mind and Giants management, which is pure speculation on my part, his poor conditioning has contributed to his inability to maximize his true talent, which makes it more difficult to evaluate his career numbers. I’ve had the opportunity to meet Sandoval in a social setting and living in San Francisco affords me the opportunity to read about his shenanigans in the local media. This is a player who values partying more than playing the game, but with free agency looming I’m very confident this offseason he will get in the best shape of his life and put his best foot forward to having the best year he can possibly have.

Other than missing 14 games with a strained left foot Sandoval has healthy the whole year. In terms of statistical analysis, last year he had the lowest ISO of his career against fastballs (.136) and on fly balls (.327). The lack of hard contact led to the lowest batting average on fly balls in his career. The table breaks below down his performance on fly balls since 2009 (green cells) opposed to his overall numbers (blue cells).

You’ll notice in two of the five years he has isolated power greater than .500. In those two years is when he hit 20-plus home runs. It’s also no surprise he had his two best batting average seasons when he was making hard contact. I believe the lack of hard contact was primarily due to a lack of conditioning and I have to bet he’ll be in the best shape of his life (yes, another cliché) when he arrives at spring training. Therefore, I bet he hits 20-25 home runs with a .280-.290 batting average.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Let’s first begin with how Harper’s final statistics looked at the end the year. The batting average, OBP, slugging and isolated power were all higher than last year. He reduced his strikeout rate a little more than one percentage point while he increased his walk rate three percentage points. Lastly he achieved all of this at the age of 20, which is scary because even the highest the best prospects are likely only in double-a at that age.

Now, any fantasy discussion has to talk about that night he ran into the wall at Dodger Stadium on May 13. The table below breaks down his performance before and after the injury.

Based on the data it’s obvious the injury plagued him for the rest of the season. At the end of the season he had surgery on at the end of October. The early chatter in the fantasy community suggests he could be a top ten fantasy player because his upside is so high. For Harper to be a top ten player he needs to have to have elite level production in at least three, preferably four statistical categories. By now we all know his raw power is immense and is capable of hitting 40-plus. If he’s going to make strides in the batting average he needs to improve upon his .229/.312/.376 slash line against lefties, specifically stop rolling over on offspeed pitches. Last year his stolen base output decreased by 38 percent (from 18 to 11). It’s possible the left knee hindered his ability to steal even more bases. When healthy he is a 60 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale), but he is unlikely to hold that speed as he ages (that’s not a concern for the next two, three years). Currently Harper has an ADP of 14, which seems about right considering his upside. Or the ADP could be too high considering he hasn’t actualized that upside into on the field results. I understand both sides of the argument, but are you taking Prince Fielder over Harper? Hanley Ramirez? Evan Longoria? Those three players are all being taken next to Harper and I rather take Harper.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.