Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Altuve went seventh and eighth in ESPN and NFBC leagues respectively and if you drafted him (like I did) you made a slight profit. That said, his 2013 season was a slight disappointment considering he didn’t do one of the two things he was supposed to do, which is score runs. Before the 2013 season I assumed he was almost a lock to score 80-plus runs because I expected him to bat second in the lineup. Well, he did that, but the Astros lineup was extremely bad. There a couple of new faces, Dexter Fowler being the most prominent one, that should help improve the lineup, but overall it’s going to be another bad lineup. It’s possible George Springer could earn a job to begin the season or come up in May. That’s important to monitor because if he made the big league ball club he would be the Astros third or fourth best hitter. If Springer gets a lot of at-bats I’d feel better about projecting Altuve for 75-plus runs, but as of late January fantasy owners should expect 63-68.

What’s a little concerning is the stolen base success rate decreased slightly (from 75 percent to 73 percent). His ability to steal 30-plus bases is important because the majority of his fantasy value comes from stolen bases. Even if only steals 20 stolen bases he’ll provide a negative ROI based on where he’s going in drafts. That said, the Astros are expected to be bad again (they should be improved, though), it’s possible Astros manager, Bo Porter, will still allow him to try to steal bags because winning is not their top priority (at the major league level). Another concern is his isolated power nearly 30 points, which means he was making less hard contact. Last year he saw 15 percent more fastballs than previous years. Subsequently, his batting average dropped from .328 to .280 against fastballs. Barring a fluky BABIP year fantasy owners should expect a year similar to last year, but if the stolen base numbers decrease he’ll provide a huge loss in value because he doesn’t hit for a lower of power, he will not have a lot of RBIs due to poor lineup and there is not a lot of upside he can provide above average runs.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

One of the biggest hesitations I had about Cabrera before the 2013 season was would he get on base enough to steal the same number of bags as 2012. In 2012 he had an .324 OBP despite having a strikeout rate of nearly 25 percent and a .336 BABIP; not the type of profile you want to use an early middle pick on. Last year he reduced his strikeout rate nine percentage points, maintained the same BABIP and increased his OBP to .355. Other than the lowered strikeout rate, the contact rate improved six and a half percentage points while the swing and miss rate decreased nearly seven percentage points, which are both dramatic improvements. The major questions every fantasy player is asking is, will he play a full year and is he more than a one category player? The table shows how many games he has played (in the minors and majors) since 2008. If you average out those five seasons he has only played in 106 games. In 2010 he was only able to play in 76 games because of a nagging a right hamstring strain and in 2011 he was bothered by a separated shoulder and was limited to only 60 games. It would have been nice if he had an opportunity to play a full year last year, but he didn’t. I believe he can play in 140-plus games this season because he’s been healthy for the past two seasons and is still only 27 years old.

There’s talk in the fantasy community about whether or not he’s nothing more than a one category player. I’m not buying that assessment. If he played 140 games he would have 80 runs, which is not that bad considering the Padres ballpark. Also, Chase Headley was really bad and if he performed like he normally did Cabrera’s run totals could have been higher. Is the .283 batting average legimate? Based on the contact rates, his improved plate discipline and his speed it certainly makes sense, but he’s never hit for a high average the past four seasons prior to 2013. I’m projecting to have a .270 batting average with room for more. I love Cabrera this year entering drafts. Even though his stolen base totals the past two years have been suppressed by a lack of playing time (which wasn’t due to injury), if he played in 155 games last year he was on pace for 60-61 stolen bases, which would have easily been the most in the majors.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

2013 was an injury plagued season, going on the DL twice with injuries to his left knee. He basically missed the end of the year with knee surgery, which he suffered during a bench clearing brawl created by his teammate Carlos Gomez (on September 25, if you want to see the fight with your MLB.tv account).

Let’s get to actual analysis. He is expected to be ready for spring training and should bat in the middle of the Brewers order, probably between Ryan Braun and Gomez or Jonathan Lucroy, which will allow him an opportunity to increase his baseball card stats if he can stay healthy the entire year. In last year’s guide I said, “I have doubts whether he can stay healthy for the entire year; previous to 2012, he’s only averaged 126 games played the past four years.” Like I said last year, that’s a big “if”. From everything I’ve read suggests his left knee was bothering him all year and it’s difficult to estimate how much it affected him, but his ISO was the lowest since 2003 and he hit the most ground balls ever in his career (since 2002). The table below (from BrooksBaseball.net) shows the ISO broken out by pitch category.

Any time I see declines in contact rates or isolated powers from players in their mid-30s all I see are major red flags. In general, players in their mid-30s are well past their prime and have begun (or began) to lose a tick or two of bat speed, which means their upside is limited if even they’re fully healthy to begin the year. Depending where he falls in drafts, he could be value, but in general I’m avoiding him.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.