Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Last year Pedroia had the lowest home run and stolen base totals since 2007 (I’m excluding 2010 when he only played 75 games) and in the process disappointing his fantasy owners. When evaluating his power, the first thing I noticed was the substantially lower HR/FB rate. The HR/FB rate at home was relatively the same; 7.6 percent compared last year to an 8.6 percent rate (from 2008-12). The biggest drop off came while on the road with a 2.2 percent HR/FB rate last year compared to a 8.1 percent (from 2008-12). Obviously the road HR/FB rate will positively regress, but there are still warning signs his power may be on the decline. For example, other than his rookie year he had the lowest ISO of his career. Maybe that was due to the home runs? Last year he had the lowest extra base hit percentage of his career (table below). The table also shows that the percentage of base hits were still fairly low even if you remove home runs from the equation. Lastly, his ground ball rate was nearly five percentage points higher compared to 2012 and it was the highest of his career. Those four stats are quite alarming and therefore I conclude his power upside in 2014 is going to be limited. Instead of hitting 15-20 home runs I expect his home run totals to be in the 8-14 range.

Another concern is the stolen bases. Not only has his stolen base totals decreased year over year, his stolen base attempts have decreased as well. To his credit, last year was the most games he’s ever played in a season; despite the one year he only played 75 games he’s averaged 141 games played since 2007. The road power should definitely improve next year, but how much? The batting average should be about the same, but is there room for improvement? Probably not given the fact he’s making weaker contact and is hitting the ball on the ground more than ever. He’ll most likely be drafted as the second or third second baseman, but I rather take the upside of a Jason Kipnis or wait for a Howard Kendrick or Omar Infante later in the draft.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Before the season I began I complete wrote off Moss’ 2012 season as a fluke year that will never happen again and that I would be surprised if Moss would get more than 300 plate appearances for the A’s, but obviously I was wrong as he was a borderline top ten first baseman. Moss was able to achieve his .256 batting average in multiple ways. First, the A’s platooned him against left handed pitchers (with Nate Frieman). Second, his strikeout rate reduced 2.5 percentage points from the prior year. Most importantly, the strikeout rate and swing and miss rate (WHIFF) decreased substantially during the second half of the season (table below).

Another reason why he performed better during the second half is the percentage of plate appearances against left handed pitchers dropped. In the first half 19 percent of his plate appearances came against lefties while in the second half it was only 14.7 percent. Based on the data I bet he’ll continue to get less at-bats against lefties, which will suppress his runs and RBIs, but they’ll inflate his batting average. I believe he has room to more than a .256 hitter next year based upon his second half results and the fact the A’s are not going to bat him against lefties. Lastly, what’s extremely interesting is the swing and miss (WHIFF) rate only decreased three percentage points while the strikeout rate a little more than seven percentage points. That tells me he’ll always have a high strikeout rate, but it appears he became more selective at the plate and stopped swinging at “bad” pitches. If he for some reason were to leave Oakland, which is highly unlikely, he would have even more value. Below are his home-road splits the last two seasons (table below). For 2014 I expect 25-30 home runs with 80-plus RBI, 70-plus runs and batting average in the .280 range.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

After a poor debut in 2012, Adams rebounded with a breakout season, albeit in a limited sample, in 2013. With Carlos Beltran leaving opens the door for Adams to have every day at-bats as Allen Craig will move to right field. The question is what will Adams do with a full season of at-bats? Craig has had problems staying healthy in his career and it’s no surprise he had the healthiest season of his career playing mostly at first base. There are two likely scenarios that are likely to play out: 1) the Cardinals allow Craig to play right field because they have Oscar Taveras waiting in the wings to set up when Craig hits the DL. 2) Adams is platooned at first with Craig. Specifically, Adams plays first against right handers while Craig plays right field. Against lefties Jon Jay plays right field and Craig plays first base.

The raw power is huge and the approach of the plate is conducive to sustain the contact necessary to not be a batting average sink (i.e. Ike Davis). That said, his aggressiveness can be exploited against good breaking stuff (.217 batting average against changeups, curveballs and sliders), which is true for most young hitters. Even though he has the raw power it’s unlikely to maintain the 23 percent HR/FB rate. Also, the .337 BABIP is likely to regress as the HR/FB regresses so the .284 batting average will likely to regress. Last year eight of 17 home runs came in September, which tells me his final home run numbers could be fluky. In September there are a lot of call ups and the competition gets diluted, which presents an opportunity to have inflated numbers at the end of the year. Therefore,  I only see Adams as a .265 hitter with about 25 home runs if he plays a full year, which puts him in a class with Kendrys Morales and Brandon Belt. Right he’s a super deep sleeper, but I think the hype train will come and by draft day, his increase his ADP to a point where he’ll no longer be a value.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.