Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the first base position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.

Overall, if you’re looking for power then first base quenches that, but it will come at a cost. Outside of Paul Goldschimdt and Edwin Encarnacion the power is going to come out at the expense of batting average. If you believe in Chris Davis, which I do not, then there’s a third player. The second tier of first base will provide higher batting averages, but with only 17-25 power. Based on the construction of your roster during the draft it’s important to identify which type of first baseman that will be needed in order to create a balanced team. Based on the NFBC ADPs in mid-February low batting average, power type of players are going later in drafts. This can present an opportunity if you build your roster with higher batting average players earlier in your drafts.

Tier 1

• Paul Goldschmidt
• Joey Votto
• Edwin Encarnacion

Goldschmidt is the premiere first baseman because he’s the only player who can provide above average production in all five categories. I have Joey Votto ahead of Chris Davis because I’m not automatically assuming he’s not going to drive in runs this year. Billy Hamilton replacing Shin-Soo Choo in the lineup will reduce Votto’s opportunities, but he also had the lowest batting average since 2008 with runners in scoring position. Davis is a very interesting player because last season came out of nowhere. His power is legitimate as I’m projecting him for 40 home runs, but I’m not sold he can on the .270-plus batting average. Encarnacion earns my number two rating because of his consistency the past two seasons.

Tier 2

• Prince Fielder
• Adrian Gonzalez
• Eric Hosmer
• Chris Davis
• Freddie Freeman
• David Ortiz
• Albert Pujols
• Allen Craig

Prince Fielder has gotten himself in great shape and his personal problems should be behind him, but he’s been making less hard contact year over year for the past three years. Allen Craig is this low because I have concerns about his ability to stay on the field the whole season especially if he’s playing 65-plus percent of his games in right field and not because of last year’s low power numbers. Adrian Gonzalez may no longer have a high ceiling, but his he has a high floor. I love Eric Hosmer, but I’m concerned what his true power potential is. There are not many 20-plus home run hitters who hit ground balls more than 52 percent of the time. Freddie Freeman is a player who does everything well, but doesn’t provide anything exceptional. I saved Albert Pujols for last because he is one of the most polarizing first basemen. You either believe his 2013 season derailed by injury and is due to bounce back to the 2011-12 form or the injury only exacerbated his decline. Not to tote the line, but last year it was a combination of both. He has a power ceiling of 30 home runs and he should have a lot of RBI opportunities with Mike Trout hitting in front of him the entire year.

Tier 3

• Mark Trumbo
• Anthony Rizzo
• Brandon Moss
• Brandon Belt

Its possible Mark Trumbo could hit 40-plus home runs, but it’s not as likely as you may think. In the last three years his HR/FB rate is 21.8 percent (compared to 19 percent at home) and if apply that rate the number of fly balls he hits in a season (150) then he would only hit 32.7 home runs. Brandon Moss’ adjustments at the plate during the second half of the year and the limited at-bats against lefties make me a believer in his 2013 season. I love Brandon Belt, but the Giants ballpark dramatically suppresses his power potential. I have a hard time believing Anthony Rizzo will have another sub-.259 BABIP again.

Tier 4

• Nick Swisher
• Adam LaRoche
• Kendrys Morales
• Corey Hart
• Jose Abreu
• Justin Morneau
• Matt Adams
• Mike Napoli

This tier of players are all basically the same as they’ll provide 18-22 home runs with a batting average that won’t help or hurt your ratios except for Jose Abreu. Abreu is a true wild card as he has the raw power to hit 35-plus home runs, but the scouting reports I’ve read question how much contact he’s going to make. I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt Adams was out of a starting job after two months because of Allen Craig’s injury history and Oscar Taveras is an elite level prospect with a much higher ceiling than Adams. Adams did have 17 bombs, but eight of them came in September against possible below average pitchers. As of mid-February Kendrys Morales doesn’t have a job and if he did, he would be my favorite player of this tier. If I’m picking from someone on this list to put into my starting lineup then my draft has gone horribly wrong, but if had to pick one player I would go with Justin Morneau because he could have a 2013 Michael Cuddyer season and BABIP his way to a .290-plus batting average.

Tier 5

• Adam Dunn
• Mark Teixeira
• Chris Carter
• Adam Lind
• Mitch Moreland
• Ryan Howard
• James Loney
• Yonder Alonso
• Garrett Jones
• Ike Davis
• Logan Morrison
• Justin Smoak

Chris Carter is very intriguing because he could literally hit 35-plus bombs if his contact rate improves. Mark Teixeira was already in decline before missing the majority of 2013 season and I have doubts he’ll be productive right out of the chute. If you leave a car in the garage for a year and turn it on, it’s not going to run as well. Ryan Howard would be higher in the tier if he was platooned against lefties. I’m not buying Justin Smoak as he still cannot hit breaking balls and offspead pitches; last year he had the lowest batting average against those pitches since 2011.

Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the catcher position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.

The catching position has six top tier players with the next ten or 11 all about the same. After the top 17-18 you’re grabbing at straws, but there are some players with nice upside. My strategy for this position depends on the type of league you’re in. Specifically, if the league requires one or two catchers. If it’s a 10-team mixer with one catcher league I’ll be most likely be the last owner drafting a catcher. If it’s a 12-team mixer with one catcher I’m going to try to acquire a tier one catcher, but if I don’t get one then I’m waiting. If it’s a two catcher league (regardless of size) I want at least one catcher in the first three tiers. Then I don’t mind waiting for my second catcher especially if I got a tier one catcher. It’s very important to note replacement level at catcher is extremely shallow and if you don’t grab one you’re going to have to start guys like Jose Lobaton like I did in one league last year.

Tier 1

• Joe Mauer
• Buster Posey

Joe Mauer is my number one rated catcher because the switch to first base should result an increase in 10-15 percent of plate appearances assuming he’s healthy. It’s a mistake to automatically assume he’ll stay healthy all year because of the position change, but you have to make a call and I’m betting he comes close to 600 at-bats. Combine that with a .323 lifetime batting average. Buster Posey quietly had a bad second half of the year (.244/.333/.310 slash line), which again proves he’s not as good as his 2012 numbers indicate.

Tier 2

• Yadier Molina
• Jonathan Lucroy
• Wilin Rosario
• Carlos Santana

If Carlos Santana plays the majority of games not as a catcher then he’s my favorite out of this group because he’s a far better hitter when he’s not catching. Yadier Molina appears to be the safest player, but he’s turning 32 in July and there’s a lot of mileage on his body. Eventually he’s going to slow down, but he hasn’t shown signs yet. If Jonathan Lucroy played a full season in 2012 he would have finished the year with 20 home runs and 7 stolen bases. Last year he had 18 home runs and nine stolen bases. He legitimately has 20/10 upside.

Tier 3

• Salvador Perez
• Miguel Montero
• Matt Wieters
• Brian McCann

I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these players finish the year in the second tier because of each of them has the upside. Miguel Montero will bat fourth in a good lineup, but was the 2013 season the start of the decline? Brian McCann has hit 20-plus home runs since 2008, but will he hold up for a full year and will he sellout for power at the expense of the batting average? Will Matt Wieters finally stop switch hitting and finally start hitting righties? Salvador Perez finally played a full year, but he didn’t build upon the promise of the 2012 season as his extra base hit percentage dropped almost one percentage point.

Tier 4

• A.J. Pierzynski
  
• Josmil Pinto
• Yan Gomes
• Evan Gattis
• Yasmani Grandal
• Wilson Ramos
• Jason Castro

Based on how Jason Castro performed last year it may be strange I have him this low, but he has injury concerns and I doubt he’ll maintain a .351 BABIP and a 26.5 percent strikeout rate again. If Yan Gomes somehow gets the lion share of the catching duties he would be a tier three catcher because I believe in his bat. Despite his massive raw power, I’m not going to own Evan Gattis this year because the scouting report suggests he’ll have a hard time making consistent contact. I’m not buying Wilson Ramos as a power threat because his 50-plus percent ground ball is extremely high for any power looking to hit 20-plus home runs.

Tier 5

• Derek Norris
• John Jaso
• Ryan Doumit
• Carlos Ruiz
• Jesus Montero
• Devin Mesoraco
• Welington Castillo
• Travis d’Arnaud
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia
• Russell Martin
• Stephen Vogt
• Mike Zunino
• J. P. Arencibia
• Hank Conger

If I have to pick one of these players for my fantasy team then I must have done something wrong in my draft. If I had to pick one these players I want Devin Mesoraco. He plays in a great hitter’s ballpark, finally has the starting catcher job and has the raw tools to be a tier two catcher (Kevin Goldstein rated him as a five-star prospect and was rated as the 24^th best prospect in the majors back in 2012). Before the 2013 season one of my bold predictions was Welington Castillo would hit 20 home runs. Obviously that didn’t happen, but he did six of his eight home runs after the all-star break.

Cobb missed nearly two months of the season after getting hit by a batted ball in the middle of June. Other than the removal of one of his ribs to clear a blood clot, Cobb has been relatively healthy. The biggest change in Cobb’s game was the elimination of the fastball in favor of increased usage of the sinker. The image, courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net, below shows the pitch the frequency of pitch type in his career.

Despite throwing the sinker more the ground ball rate actually decreased three percentage points to 56 percent (that’s still really high!). On surface he has a lot of skills fantasy owners should covet. He generates a lot of ground balls and had an above average strikeout rate (23.2 percent) last year. The strikeout rate increased nearly five percentage points compared to 2012. The increase came primarily against right handed hitters as the strikeout rate increased seven percentage points. The more refined command of the splitter/changeup was the biggest reason for this increase. In 2012 he missed up in the zone a lot with that pitch, but last year he kept the ball down. It sounds overly simplistic, but that change led to the swing and miss rate increasing three percentage points and the strikeout rate increasing 12 percentage points.

Despite those positive attributes in his game there are still some red flags. First he allows a lot of contact (91.8 percent career contact rate), which makes him vulnerable to the BABIP monster. To quote Chris Moran, “Of the 30 pitchers with the highest Zone-Contact rates since 2011, only six have an ERA- better than the major league average.” That line is a little misleading and he goes on to say pitchers like Adam Wainwright and Felix Hernandez have similar contact rates and they’re just fine.

What’s peculiar about Cobb’s stat line is he had a HR/FB rate of nearly 15 percent, a LOB% of 81.4 percent while maintaining a 2.76 ERA. He gave up 13 home runs last year and most, if not all, must have come with no one on-base. Also, another sign of good luck was his career best .279 BABIP, but don’t let that fool you into believing he was lucky. He was top ten among starters with at least 20 starts in ground ball rate; combine that with a 23 percent strikeout rate that looks legitimate, it’s no wonder why his BABIP and LOB rates were so low.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.