Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

A show of hands of who saw Carpenter putting up the season he did in 2013? I literally had no idea he had the ability to put up numbers like he did last year. In last year’s guide I had him as a fringe top 15 second base candidate who could score some runs, provide a little pop, but ultimately would regress because the 2012 BABIP was not repeatable. Not only did he repeat the BABIP, it actually increased (from .346 to .359). That begs the question, what will his batting average be in 2014? His contact rate increased nearly six percentage points and his line drive rate increased a little more than four percentage points, which indicates last year’s BABIP could be sustainable. However, he doesn’t benefit from plus speed, which means he’s going to have to find holes in the defense to earn hits. Therefore, the batting average should regress, but only to the .295-.305 range.

Last year his fantasy value was greatly inflated by the 126 runs scored and the 78 RBIs. Next year I believe both regress. If the batting average regresses his run scoring opportunities should decrease. Also, Matt Adams is more likely a downgrade compared to Carlos Beltran. In terms of RBIs, it’s extremely unlikely he bats .330 again with runners in scoring position. That said, the lower third of the lineup has upgraded offensively. For example, Pete Kozma and David Freese are both gone while Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong are in. Carpenter’s batting average with men in scoring position should regress, but his opportunities should improve. For example, he only ranked 18^th among second basemen in plate appearances among second basemen. All that said, I only expect him to drive in 60-65 RBIs next year. Since he doesn’t steal bases or hit for a lot power, his fantasy value is going to be derived from the batting average and his runs scored. I believe in Carpenter the player and if he falls to you at the right price you should buy.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

The biggest difference in Rizzo’s advanced peripherals was his BABIP; in 2012 it was .310 and last year it was .258. With a limited sample size in the majors it’s difficult to judge what his true BABIP should be. Based on his contact rates in the minors and in 2012, he profiles as someone who should have a normal BABIP in the .290-.300 range. If that is indeed true, then his .258 BABIP seems insanely low and should improve in 2014. He has struggled against lefties the past two seasons. For example, he has a slash line of .196/.269/.347. However, in his last two years in triple-a (in 184 plate appearances) he has a slash line of .309/.382/.558 against lefties. Obviously we’re working with a small sample size (both in the majors and minors) and the quality of pitching could be a question too, but at least he’s shown the ability to handle lefties, which provides optimism for 2014.

Let’s talk about the positives. His isolated power increased from .178 to .186, which was mainly due to hitting more doubles. Based on his scouting reports as prospect it’s possible more of those doubles turn into home runs because he has the raw power to hit 25-plus. His walk rate increased three percentage points, but what’s more impressive is the reduction in swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone (6.5 percentage points to 27.5 percent).

His down season could make him a draft day bargain. When young players struggle and there’s a small sample size I put more weight on the scouting reports when he was a prospect. Specifically, I look at the raw tools because a wise scout one said, “always bet on the tools.” I question if a bounce back is possible I always look at the raw tools because when in doubt always bet on tools. Rizzo has the tools to become an all-star type of player if everything rolls right. That’s enough for me.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

Before the 2013 season, I wrote off his power potential because I thought the power wouldn’t translate at Petco Park. However, the opposite happened. Gyorko had the quietest 23 home runs last year (in only 125 games!). It’s possible his numbers could have been better if it wasn’t for a groin strain that made him miss a month of the season (mid-June to early July). The table shows his stats before and after the injury.

Last year he had a higher slugging percentage and higher HR/FB rates at home compared to on the road, which means he’s either capable of hitting more home runs or hitting less depending on what you expect his true power potential to be. I believe the road power increases and the home power decreases, which creates a wash. The power is legitimate. These are his home run totals the last three seasons (including the minors): 25, 30 and 23. His fly ball rate was 41.9 percent last year. There were 28 players (with at least 400 plate appearances) who had a fly ball rate greater or equal to 42 percent. 16 of them had at least 20 home runs and those 28 players averaged 22 home runs.

The only question is at what his batting average will be because that’s the key to his fantasy viability. If he hits less than .240 he’s barely usable because he’ll provide no speed. Last year Petco suppressed his batting average, but that could have been due to the low .252 BABIP. The table below shows his home-road splits last year. The pre and post injury statistics cloud what his true talent is, but he’ll likely be a .250-.260 hitter because of his home ballpark and high strikeout rate. In general I want my second baseman to provide a lot of stolen bases, but if you already have a speed-first player in the outfield such as Michael Bourn, then Gyorko is the perfect compliment.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.