Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the shortstop position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.

Shortstop is filled with a lot of stolen bases, which means if you don’t get steals at this position you better acquire it at other positions. If you do get stolen bases at other positions you could get tremendous values with power-first players. In general this may be a position where it’s better to wait to get your shortstop because the players at the top all have major questions entering into 2014.

Tier 1

• Troy Tulowitzki
• Everth Cabrera
• Ian Desmond

Before Everth Cabrera was suspended he was the number three shortstop on ESPNs Player Rater. As of mid-February he’s going as the seventh shortstop, which I obviously think is too low. I do not believe he’s injury prone and if he plays a full season he could provide 50-plus stolen bases. Ian Demond looks like a slam dunk for 20/20, but there is risk with the batting average. For the past two seasons most of his batting average was fueled by swinging on 0-0 counts. Last year pitchers started making adjustments in those counts and he was a less effective pitcher.

Tier 2

• Starlin Castro
• Jose Reyes
• Hanley Ramirez
• Elvis Andrus

The biggest question with Jose Reyes is how many stolen bases will he steal? If he steals 35-plus bags he’s my number one shortstop. If he plays a full year he’s very likely to steal 30-plus, but I have questions he can stay on the field even though last year’s injury was fluky. I may be on an island here, but I believe Starlin Castro bounces back to the all-star level player he was before the 2013 season. Before the season the Cubs changed his approach at the plate. Specifically, they wanted him to walk more and get deeper into counts, but obviously that didn’t work. I expect him to go back to his old approach. I understand why some would consider Hanley Ramirez as a top ten overall pick, but it doesn’t make any sense to me. His 2013 numbers are clearly going to regress and the past two seasons he hasn’t played well. Elvis Andrus’ value comes from his potential stolen base totals and the fact he’ll have high run totals batting second in the lineup.

Tier 3

• Ben Zobrist
• Jed Lowrie
• Jean Segura
• J. J. Hardy
• Andrelton Simmons
• Xander Bogaerts
• Alexei Ramirez

I’m extremely down on Jean Segura because he fell off the face of the Earth the second half of the season. It’s possible he faded at the end of the year due to poor conditioning or learning the rigors of playing in the majors, but he’s being taken ahead of Jose Reyes and Ian Desmond, which tells me fantasy owners are drafting last year’s stats. Jed Lowrie’s batting average is likely to regress, but not as much as you think. He’s a fly ball/line drive hitter and makes a lot of solid contact, which will allow him to have a lot of doubles. Also, he’ll likely bat either second or third for the majority of the year. Ben Zobrist’s baseball card statistics were down but his contact rates were better last year. Barring a miracle resurgent year I see his home runs and stolen bases decreasing even more. If you get speed at other positions you’ll get a great opportunity to draft Hardy’s 20-plus power on the cheap. Contrary to Andrelton Simmons’ scouting reports he hit for power and didn’t steal very many bases. He’ll likely hit fewer home runs than last year, but I think he’ll steal 10-plus bases. Alexei Ramirez’s stolen bases depend if he’ll make enough contact to get on-base to steal bases again. In 2014 the batting average regresses and the stolen base totals decrease. Xander Bogaerts has the potential to hit 30-plus home runs when he reaches his offensive ceiling. That makes him extremely intriguing especially if you missed out on Hardy and are looking for power.

Tier 4

• Brad Miller
• Jonathan Villar
• Erick Aybar
• Asdrubal Cabrera
• Jordy Mercer
• Jhonny Peralta

Jonathan Villar could steal 40-plus bases, but his batting average could be in the .230s. His scouting report suggests he could also hit 6-plus home runs, which makes him more attractive than other speed-first players. Even though he’s still a work in progress Brad Miller flashed brilliance and performed well during the last two months of the season (.431 slugging). It’s possible Asdrubal Cabrera is done as an everyday player after this season, but he’ll still bat fifth or sixth, which means he’ll have RBI opportunities. Jhonny Peralta is a better player than Cabrera, but since Peralta will most likely bat seventh or eighth in the National League means he has less upside for runs and RBIs. No one is talking about Jordy Mercer as a solid fantasy option, but he performed last year, looks to have the everyday job and has 15/15 upside.

Tier 5

• Alcides Escobar
• Jimmy Rollins
• Yunel Escobar
• Zack Cozart
• Stephen Drew
• Derek Jeter
• Brandon Crawford

How many games does Derek Jeter play? Over-under on 85 games? I’m taking the under, which means not draftable in leagues besides AL-only.  Alcides Escobar has the raw speed to steal 30-plus stolen bases, but his biggest problem is getting to first base. Since he doesn’t walk his bat, which is below average, needs to improve if he’s going to get on-base enough to be fantasy relevant.

Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the third base position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.

Third base is a very deep position, but other than the first tier of players, this position is full of question marks with wide ranging possibilities. Similar to first base, there isn’t a lot of stolen base potential, but there are a lot of middle tier players that will hit 18-plus home runs. However, unlike first base, the middle and late tiers have plenty of young players with the high upsides.

Tier 1

• Miguel Cabrera
• Adrian Beltre
• David Wright

Miguel Cabrera is either the first or second pick depending on your preference, but I do have some slight worries about his potential to play a full season even if he plays the majority of the year at first base. For three years in a row David Wright has outperformed Evan Longoria on ESPNs Player Rater, but Wright continues to get drafted after him, which doesn’t make any sense. Even though Adrian Beltre will be turning 35 in April it looks as though he shows no signs of slowing down.

Tier 2

• Josh Donaldson
• Evan Longoria
• Kyle Seager
• Matt Carpenter
• Ryan Zimmerman

When evaluating Josh Donaldson you either believe last year was real or a fluke. I believe it was real. His batting average will regress to the .280s and he’ll continue to bat second or third for an A’s offense that should be better than last year. Everyone loves Longoria, but I only see a three category player who doesn’t steal bases anymore and could be a batting average liability if he continues to strikeout 20 percent of the time. If Kyle Seager didn’t have a brutal second half of the year his final numbers would have been a lot better. He’s one of the rare players who can provide average to above average production in all five categories. At this point it’s almost a certainty Ryan Zimmerman will miss at least two weeks of the season with an injury, but when he plays he’s extremely effective.

Tier 3

• Pablo Sandoval
• Chase Headley
• Martin Prado
• Pedro Alvarez
• Aramis Ramirez
• Brett Lawrie

In the early preseason I wrote I wasn’t high on Brett Lawrie, but according to his ADPs he presents a good value as he’s being drafted as the 14^th third baseman in NFBC drafts. If he plays a full year he could be a 15/15 player with upside for 20/20. He may also have a higher likelihood of injury due to his levels of #WANT, but at that ADP he is worth the gamble. If anyone is going to take this year seriously it’s Pablo Sandoval because this is the last year of his deal. Headley is the Alex Gordon of third base as he doesn’t provide above average stats, but he provides average value in every category. The biggest question with Pedro Alvarez is what will his batting average be? Aramis Ramirez is in decline and I prefer taking younger players with higher upside. 

Tier 4

• Will Middlebrooks
• Todd Frazier
• Nick Castellanos
• Matt Dominguez
• Manny Machado
• Nolan Arenado

If Will Middlebrooks is given every day at-bats he could hit 30-plus home runs. However, he’s an extremely sneaky player and is prone to long cold streaks, which will make him a batting average risk. If Todd Frazier can become a .250 hitter he could be extremely valuable because of his 18-plus home runs and 4-9 stolen bases. Matt Dominguez has a real opportunity to become this year’s Josh Donaldson (in terms of real life value) because they play superb defense, were post-hype first round draft picks and have similar raw power. Manny Machado provides more real life value than fantasy value because he doesn’t hit for much power and he doesn’t steal bases. During the second half of the season his performance fell off dramatically. Nolan Arenado could be a sneaky sleeper not only because of the home ballpark, but because he makes a lot of contact. My biggest hesitation is how much hard contact will he make?

Tier 5

• David Freese
• Chris Johnson
• Mike Moustakas
• Matt Davidson
• Lonnie Chisenhall
• Mike Olt
• Trevor Plouffe

Some fantasy owners may see Chris Johnson’s extremely high BABIP and write off his 2013 season, but he has always been a high BABIP player. For example, before the 2013 season he had a career .347 BABIP. Matt Davidson is not a highly touted prospect which makes him an unsexy draft pick, but he has the raw power for 20 home runs and will get an opportunity to play every day. This is a make or break year for Mike Moustakas as Danny Valencia will most likely be his platoon partner against lefties.

Below is my fantasy baseball preview for the second base position. This is a mere supplement to the fantasy guide, which will have in-depth player capsules for each player ranked. The fantasy guide will be released on March 1. If you’re looking for player projections for the 2014 season, please go to the fantasy guides page.

Second base is one of the deeper offensive positions in fantasy because there are players in every tier that could conceivably be in the first tier in 2015. Unlike shortstop second base doesn’t provide very many elite level stolen base options. Instead, the position is rich with players who will provide average to above average production in at least four categories. With a lot of these players bunched up it’s even more important to find the player that exceeds his draft day value.

Tier 1

• Robinson Cano
• Jason Kipnis
• Dustin Pedroia

With an early-ADP of 9.46 in NFBC leagues there is a lot doubt about Robinson Cano moving to Seattle, but I’m not one of them. Despite collapsing during the second half the past two seasons Jayson Kipnis could be a 20/30 player with an average batting average. How high is Dustin Pedroia’s ceiling? Last year he had the lowest stolen base totals and isolated power of his career.

Tier 2

• Aaron Hill
• Daniel Murphy
• Matt Carpenter
• Ian Kinsler

Despite coming off a significant injury a lot of fantasy owners are forgetting how good Aaron Hill was before the injury. Two years ago he 26 home runs, 14 stolen bases with a .302 batting average. If you ever saw Daniel Murphy play it would be hard to believe he’s such a good fantasy player. I was believer in his talent last year and I’m not shying away. Matt Carpenter had a really good year, but I doubt he hits .388 with runners in scoring position again. I wasn’t a Ian KInsler guy last year and I don’t believe the change of scenery changes very much.

Tier 3

• Jose Altuve
• Brandon Phillips
• Martin Prado
• Howie Kendrick
• Ben Zobrist
• Jed Lowrie

Jose Altuve may have the most steals among second baseman at the end of the year, but he doesn’t have much power and the Astros will most likely be bad for at least the first half of the season, which means he’ll score less runs and have fewer RBI opportunities. Even though Brandon Phillips is in decline he’ll still have value because he’ll likely either bat second or fourth. If you compare Martin Prado’s and Howard Kendrick’s stats the past three seasons there isn’t much of a difference, but Prado is going 65 spots ahead of Kendrick, which doesn’t make sense. Ben Zobrist’s baseball card statistics were down but his contact rates were better last year. Barring a miracle resurgent year I see his home runs and stolen bases decreasing even more. Omar Infante is going to bat second for the Royals, which means he could score 90-plus runs especially if you believe Eric Hosmer takes the next step. You’re likely not going to play Jed Lowrie at second base, but he’s going to hit atop the A’s lineup and I do not believe he’s injury prone because his previous injuries have been fluky in nature.

Tier 4

• Omar Infante
• Brian Dozier
• Jedd Gyorko
• Chase Utley

It’s easy to see the 19.5 HR/FB rate during the second of the season and say Jedd Gyorko is a prime candidate for regression, especially in that ballpark. However, he’s hit for power the past three seasons in the majors and minors, which makes me believe the power is legit. Brian Dozier’s power numbers may have been lucky because he had the second lowest average home run distance in the majors. When Chase Utley played he was extremely productive. Despite playing in the most games since 2009, but I still have injury concerns. Last year if you had Utley and used a replacement level player (when Utley was hurt) you would have had a season with 20 home runs, 8 stolen bases, 79 RBI, 85 runs and a .278 batting average, which is near the value of Daniel Murhpy. For that projection I used Yunel Escobar as a replacement level player. Therefore, I may be too low on Utley.

Tier 5

• Dan Uggla
• Jurickson Profar
• Neil Walker
• Kolten Wong
• Jordy Mercer
• Dustin Ackley
• Anthony Rendon
• Marco Scutaro
• Scooter Gennett
• Gordon Beckham
• Alexander Guerrero
• Jemile Weeks

It’s easy to right off Dan Uggla’s poor year and say he no longer has value, but Uggla couldn’t see last year, which means he could provide a positive ROI. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits 25-plus home runs with a .225-plus batting average. Scooter Gennett can flat out hit, but he won’t hit for much power and will most likely be in a platoon with Rickie Weeks. Despite the high prospect rankings I’m not buying Anthony Rendon can stay on the field for a full year and if he did, I don’t expect the average to be above .270 or the power to be above 14. Profar’s prospect may make him a hot commodity on draft day, but if you actually read his scouting reports his value came primarily from the glove. He’s going to be a great player, but not in 2014.