Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Where to begin? From 2010-13 he’s made at least 31 starts, but last year he was only able to start 16 games. The reason why he only made 16 starts was due to a knee surgery (after slipping on the mound) and elbow inflammation. The elbow inflammation started in April and came up again in September.

Last year his fastball velocity dropped from 94.07 mph to 91.82 in 2014. I have to believe injuries played a major part in the velocity decrease because his velocity was stable for the three years prior and he never had a decrease that big before (image below courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net). Also, his secondary stuff didn’t look the same either; especially the slider.

It can be easy to say he’ll begin the year healthy and rebound. It’s also easy to say he will continue to not be healthy because elbow injuries are more serious. I think we will have to wait to see how he looks in Spring Training to get a better idea on how he’ll perform in 2015.

To quote Keith Law, “Latos has five full years in the majors and has never had an ERA over 3.50 or a FIP over 3.85, and that includes three seasons in a hitter’s park in Cincinnati.” In regards to the “low” strikeout rate in 2012-13 I see that as a positive because he started throwing his two-seamer more to get ground balls, which makes sense considering the Reds ballpark.

Overall, his fantasy value is going to be tied to his health. If he throws 150-plus innings his fantasy owners will make a fairly large profit. As of early January I have no idea if he will be healthy or not, which is why I will conclude with this:

The Reds traded Latos for Anthony DeSclafani and Chad Wallach (catcher). DeSclafani’s ultimate role will be a long reliever because I don’t think he has the arsenal to go through a lineup more than once. In my view the Reds traded Latos away for a bag of magic beans essentially. The Reds knew more about Latos’ medical status better than anyone. If they believed he had a good chance of rebounding in 2015 then why trade him for little? I’m sure they could have gotten more in trade in June/July than now. The retort to that is to look at the Jeff Samardzija trade. The A’s didn’t get that much back in return (at least in the public’s perception) so maybe that was the best offer on the table for the Reds. But if that was the case then why not keep him for a half a year and trade him when his value is higher?

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

When I look at Lance Lynn’s 2014 final numbers he doesn’t pass the smell test for me. Last years .293 BABIP was 26 less than his career BABIP prior to 2014. Last years 78.1% LOB% was four and half percentage points higher than his career rate. Last years 6.0% HR/FB rate was two percentage points less than his career rate. Basically, he lot lucky and his numbers are going to regress in 2015 especially because he’s a high walk pitcher.

The big adjustment he made last year was he threw his fastball a lot more against both righties and lefties. By throwing the fastball more he morphed into a bat-to-ball pitcher. Therefore, I’m not surprised his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career and I expect the strikeout rate to be in the 19-20% range next year. Even though the strikeout rate was lower, it was still passable for a 10-team mixed league. What probably will not be talked about is in the past three years he’s had at least 15 wins each season. The Cardinals should be good in 2015 so it’s very likely he’ll have at least 14 wins if he makes 30-plus starts next year.

For 2015 my projection for Lynn is 200 IP, 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 180 Ks and 14 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Before Spring Training Mike Minor had trouble getting ready. On 12/31/13 he surgery on his urethra and subsequently was a few weeks behind his normal training regimen because he had to rest for the month of January. Then he aggravated his shoulder by pushing to make up for his late start to spring training. Specifically this resulted in him having shoulder inflammation and he missed the first month of the season. On September 23, 2014 he was shut down for the rest of the season with an inflamed shoulder.

He struggled for the first three months of the season, but after a strong August (3.24 ERA and 1.02 WHIP) I believed he was back to the pitcher he was in 2013. However, he had an awful September and was shut down.

On the whole, it was a terrible season for Minor especially when you compare his numbers to 2013. Throughout most of the season he didn’t have good command of his secondary pitches, specifically, the changeup and slider. In 2013 he was very good at keeping them down in the zone, but so often last year he left them up, in the middle of the zone. That’s why he threw the fastball much more than the previous year.

Last year he started to throw a two-seam fastball and his ground ball rate increased five and half percentage points. It’s possible he’ll throw it less if he has better command of his secondary pitches, but I think this trend will continue.

With an injury offseason I’m expecting Minor to bounce back to the numbers he put up in 2013. The ERA will probably be in the 3.30-3.40 range, but he’s generating more ground balls with the two-seamer and I expect the command of the secondary pitches to improve because he’ll have a full amount of time to prepare for Spring Training.

My 2015 projection for Minor is 200 IP, 180 Ks, 12 wins, 3.35 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP