Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

Last year I was huge believer in Gerrit Cole because of his raw stuff, the impeccable command (at times) of the fastball and how quickly he made adjustments in 2013. In last year’s guide I predicted the strikeout rate would increase to 24% and it did. What I didn’t plan for was him missing a third of the season with shoulder a strain and fatigue.

For me, his raw skill set is so good that he could be a top five starting pitcher in baseball. What’s going to suppress his ADP is the injury last year and the “lack” of production in minors and majors. In regards to the numbers in the minors it’s important to remember when players are in the minors they are developing and working on things.

What’s interesting is Cole seems to change when he wants or does not want to dominate. In his last nine starts he had a 3.14 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 29.0% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate with a .311 BABIP. In his first 14 starts he posted a 4.02 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 21.0% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and a .325 BABIP. In regards to his 2014 statistics I have no idea how much injuries effected his season so instead I’m going to rely on the eye test and the scouting reports I’ve read.

Overall, his skill set and makeup are so good I’m going to target him in every draft because his upside is so high. In order to win in fantasy baseball you need players to outperform their draft day values and Cole is a prime candidate to do that. Last year he only started 22 games, but he won 11 of them and that’s indicative of how good the Pirates defense and bullpen are. He has a very good chance to win 14-plus games if he can make 30-plus starts.

My projection for Gerrit Cole in 2015 is 190 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 200 Ks and 14 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

At this point in his career Ben Zobrist is a medium/high floor player with little upside. He provides position flexibility, which increases his value in daily lineup leagues because you can move him around if your team suffers an injury during the week.

In terms of his statistical value his power and stolen base totals have decreased steadily since 2012 and I cannot find any statistical evidence to show improvement is coming. The stolen base success rate was the second lowest of his career.

If you play in OBP leagues his value jumps up a tick because you can bank on at least a .340-plus OBP. From 2009-2013 he is a career .288 hitter with runners in scoring position, but last year he only hit .225 so a positive regression in his RBI totals should occur.

In early January the Athletics acquired Zobrist (along with Yunel Escobar). Zobrist will likely begin the year in left field and bat in the two spot when Coco Crisp is in the lineup and when Crisp is not in the lineup Zobrist will likely bat leadoff. It looks like the Zobrist and Escobar trade is the last trade the A’s are going to make this offseason. If the lineup can stay healthy the A’s should have pretty good lineup, which means Zobrist should be able to score at least 85 runs with room for 95-plus.

My 2015 fantasy projection for Zobrist is 570 ABs, .272 AVG, 9 HRs, 72 RBI, 94 runs and 9 SBs.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

No other pitcher had more conflicted forecasts, projections and evaluations than Alex Wood. On one hand I do not like how he throws a baseball. When I see him pitch it looks like his arm is going to blow off into the stands. I have no idea how he can throw strikes consistently because I don’t know how he’s able to consistently to throw strikes.

On the other hand he’s been extremely successful for the past two seasons. The table below shows his Major League statistics as a starting pitcher. Last year he was a top 30 starting pitcher in mixed leagues and threw 180 innings between the minors and majors last year.

The major improvement last year was the curveball got a lot better and he was able to throw it for more strikes while missing a lot of bats. The table below shows the strikeout rate and the percentage of strikes with the curveball.

The reason why I mentioned the curveball was because coming up through the minors he was a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and changeup). The lack of a third pitch and funky mechanics suppressed his name on prospect lists coming through the minors because his profile suggested he was going to be a reliever. Since the curveball has emerged as a legitimate third pitch he now has a good chance of having another solid season as a starting pitcher.

In regards to last year’s statistics there’s no way he’s going to have an 80% strand rate again so there is going some negative regression. However, when evaluating any left handed starter I always look at the lefty-righty splits because a lot of times lefties struggle to get righties out.

His numbers suggest he should be able to get righties out so the last major concern I have is how many wins will he have if he has 30 starts? Other than Craig Kimbrel I have major questions about their bullpen. Currently their seventh and eighth inning relievers are Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli. Maybe both these pitchers regress, but I do not want these pitchers pitching high leverage situations. Also, I believe the Braves offense is going to be bad; in fact they’re going to score least number of runs in the NL. Therefore, it’s going to be hard for any Braves starting pitcher to have more than 11-12 wins next year.

My 2015 projection for Wood is 190 IP, 3.40, 1.15 WHIP, 179 Ks and 11 wins.