Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

On April 26, 2013 I said, “Garrett Richards has really good stuff; his fastball and cutter sat at 95 mph and maxed out at 97 mph. Richards is a reliever masquerading as starter. His biggest problem is the lack of command of his secondary pitches, which is primarily the slider. Without command of the slider there’s no velocity separation in the cutter and fastball, which makes those pitches easier to hit. Speaking of the fastball, if he misses up in the zone it becomes flat and more hittable.”

Three things happened last year. First the command of slider improved. Second, he threw his fastball a lot more. Third, overall he was more consistent with the command and showed a better feel for pitching.

In 2013 he split his time between the bullpen and in the rotation. Starting in late July he was in the rotation for the rest of the season. Below is a breakdown of his last 13 starts in 2013 compared to the 26 starts in 2014. *Unless otherwise noted all the tables referenced will be using this date range.

Three major statistics stand out: the BABIP, HR/FB and strike out rate. Richards has great stuff but the HR/FB rate should regress and so should the BABIP. Since he misses so many bats and generates weak contact the BABIP will likely be in the .285-.295 range. A major reason why the strikeout rate ticked up was the command of the slider improved (table below).

In regards to the fastball, the velocity improved almost two mph more (image below from BrooksBaseball.net)

Last year he suffered a freak accident trying to cover first base in late August. According to Jeff Fletcher (as of December 30^th) Richards will not be ready for Opening Day, but will be ready by mid-May.

Overall, he improved dramatically last year and those improvements should repeat itself in 2015. That said, there is going to be some regression in the HR/FB rate and the BABIP. If he doesn’t pitch until mid-May he’ll probably lose somewhere between 7-10 starts.

My 2015 projection for Richards is 160 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 154 Ks and 10 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

In 2013 I loved Matt Harvey. I thought he was being criminally under drafted. He had great stuff and was extremely productive in ten starts in the season prior. It’s no surprise I bought low on Harvey in all of my drafts and I rode him to a couple of fantasy titles. All that said I’m probably not going to have Harvey on any of my teams. There are several reasons why I’m staying away:

1. The Mets offense and bullpen will be bad and he won’t have a lot of wins.
2. How many innings will he throw?
3. I do not know how the new changes to the Mets ballpark will effect scoring, but it most likely will not help pitchers.

The biggest reason why I’m staying away is command is the last thing to return post Tommy John Surgery. Adam Wainwright had a TJ in 2011 and he returned in 2012 and had 32 starts. The first 16 starts were far worse than the last 16 (table below). The primary reason was his command was loose and became tighter as the season progressed.

Since the rehab process has improved since Wainwright had his surgery it’s possible Harvey comes out of the gate full bore with his stuff and command in-tact, but as of early January there are too many questions surrounding him that he’s not worth the risk (based on where he’ll likely go in drafts). If he slips into the 50s-60s among starting pitchers I’ll gladly take a flier on Harvey, but I think he’ll drafted as a top 30 pitcher, which is too high of a price for me.

For 2015 I’m projecting Harvey to have 170 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 175 Ks and 9 wins.

If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After being relatively healthy his Major League career Gio Gonzalez had his first trip on the DL in 2014 with shoulder inflammation. Before going on the DL his numbers suffered (table below). It’s possible the bad numbers were caused by the injury, bad luck and/or a small sample size. Either way, after he came off the DL he was a much different pitcher.

The biggest question about Gonzalez’s fantasy value is whether or not you believe the 8.3% walk rate he posted after coming off the DL. Before 2014 his career walk rate was 10.5% and from 2011-13 his walk rate was 9.7%. I never like high walk pitchers because they’re more prone to blow up innings (and starts) and they leave games earlier, which lowers their win potential. Since 2011 35% of his starts have ended with an ERA above four (i.e. the in-game ERA for that specific start was above four). That’s incredibly high number for a pitcher who misses that many bats.

The primary reason why I don’t believe in the lower walk rate was his fastball command didn’t improve. After coming off the DL the strike percentage of his fastball was 64.7% and from 2011-14 (before going on the DL) his strike percentage was 64.2%.

I have the same advice as last year for any Gonzalez owner. If you have him you have to keep him in your lineup no matter what. Since he’s a high walk pitcher he’s going to be prone to random blow up starts. The blow up starts will be unpredictable, but do not waiver. When he’s clicking he can be one of top 15 pitchers in baseball.

In regards to his win potential there’s a reason why he’s only won 21 games the past two seasons. That reason is his he only six innings per start (which is primarily due to his high pitch counts due to the high number of walks). The Nationals should be able to walk away with the NL East, which is why I projected Stephen Strausberg and Jordan Zimmerman for 14-15 wins. However, I can’t go more than 12 for Gonzalez because his ability to win games will be bullpen dependent.

My 2015 projection for Gonzalez is 190 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 190 Ks and 12 wins.