Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 24 catchers. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams and two catchers.

Overall, the state of position is as really down. Other than Buster Posey there is no consistency. Kyle Schwarber is my second catcher, but he’s far from a finished product and I could see many scenarios where he struggles for an extended part of the season before settling into a groove. With all the catcher defensive specific data available baseball teams are looking for defensive catchers rather than offensive first catcher. This trend makes the catcher landscape very muddled.

My strategy heading into my drafts, if I’m drafting in the back half, will be to draft Posey with my first pick because the drop off after him is immense and catcher is the only scare position. If I do not draft Posey based on current NFBC ADP Data I’ll mostly likely end up with Yan Gomes and JR Murphy.

I loved Gomes last year and I believe he’ll bounce back after an injury plagued season. With Murphy I’m banking on two things. First, that the Twins allow him to be the primary catcher. Second, that he’ll have a respectable average and hit 10-plus home runs. He has a short swing and a very good approach, which should allow for solid OBP.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As #1 Catcher:

The biggest reason why Travis d’Arnaud has not had a huge fantasy season is due to health. Last year it was elbow and hand issues. In 2014 it was a concussion. In his professional career he’s only played in 100-plus games three out of nine seasons. In terms of offensive talent he may be the second best hitter (after Posey) at the position. I’m probably too low on him, but I want to see how he looks in Spring Training. Also, the Mets probably make share a large part of the workload with Kevin Plawecki. If the 2016 season was played 100 times, 1-5 of those seasons he finishes the year as the number one catcher because he plays 130 games and hits .270 with 30 home runs.

In the yearly tradition of buy low trades the A’s acquired first baseman Yonder Alonso and lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski for Drew Pomeranz and minor-leaguer Jose Torres. When I first saw the trade I thought it was misprint because the trade didn’t make sense for the A’s. My perception of the A’s was they struggled scoring runs, but that wasn’t the case. They ranked 20^th in home runs and were tied for 13^th in runs scored and they achieved that with Billy Butler clogging their DH spot.

Alonso is an oft-injured glove first player at a premium offensive position. He has only played more than 140 games once in his career (in 2012). Last May he went on the DL with a shoulder strain after making a diving stop. In September he landed on the 60-day DL with a lower back strain. In 2014 he was only limited to 84 games due to a sore right wrist and a right forearm strain.

From a fantasy perspective he’s going to have more real life value than fantasy. For the past three seasons he played in San Diego and it is possible the ballpark suppressed his numbers, but that’s not the case. The table below shows his home-road splits since joining the Padres in 2012.

If Alonso is able to play 140 games he’s primary fantasy asset will be the batting average. His hard hit rate suggests he should hit about 15 home runs, but his extremely high ground ball rate will limit his home run potential to 12-13 home runs. Based on how the lineup is constructed he is going to hit in the bottom third of the order limiting his run scoring and RBI potential.

The addition of Alonso makes a Mark Canha a platoon player entering Spring Training, but I bet he plays in just as many games as last year (124). First of all he’s going to play against lefties and both Alonso and the incumbent left fielder Coco Crisp are very good bets to hit the DL (I don’t see Crisp playing more than 60 games). If Canha gets consistent playing time he hit atop the order. During the last two months of the season Canha was hitting second against both righties and lefties. If Canha played every day he could hit 20 home runs with a .260 batting average so he will have sneaky fantasy value in deeper mixed formats even if he doesn’t have a starting job at the start of the year.

In regards to Pomeranz, he’s going to be a dynamite lefty out of the bullpen. I’ve said for over a year he’s a reliever because he’s a two-pitch pitcher and doesn’t have the fastball command to go through a lineup three times consistently. He’s currently the only lefty in the bullpen so he’s not likely to earn saves, but the Padres bullpen doesn’t have a “proven closer” and he did close briefly for the A’s last year. I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a couple of spot starts, which will be valuable if he’s pitching at home.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

In his last six starts Josh Tomlin has a 2.85 ERA, 0.732 WHIP, 24.8 percent strikeout rate and 2.0 percent walk rate. The question is are those number legitimate? No. During this time frame he has a .167 BABIP and his hard hit rate is similar to last year’s numbers. However, I am buying the increase in strikeout rate. The cutter looks much better than it ever did. Specifically, he’s throwing it for more strikes and is throwing it on the outer half of the strike zone.

Ian Kennedy, in his last ten starts, has a 2.74 ERA and 1.139 WHIP. During this span he’s striking out 29.1 percent of hitters and is finally showing the promise he showed last season. Now that the season is coming to an end his underlying peripherals are almost identical. Depending on where he signs in the offseason he’s going to be a sleeper for me for redraft leagues next season. All that said, I’m starting him in Colorado.

At the trade deadline I said Mike Leake I said I wouldn’t be surprised if Leake has the most real life value of all the pitchers traded at the trade deadline. Since the trade deadline Leake has a 2.87 ERA and 0.994 WHIP. I’ve been writing all season Leake is a great streamer and DFS option when he’s pitching on the road because his overall ERA and WHIP numbers have been inflated by the Reds home ballpark.