Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 29 second basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

The second base position is incredibly top heavy with two superstars (Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon) with 4-5 other players who could finish as the best second baseman. After the first 6-7 second baseman they’re all about the same.

The Javier Baez projection assumes he starts the year in the majors. I ranked Addison Russell as a shortstop.

When evaluating Anthony Rendon is entirely dependent upon the league format. If I’m in a shallow league I’ll bump him up in my overall rankings. The reason being you win leagues by having players dramatically outperform their ADPs. In a deeper league I would be more wary. The reason being if he gets hurt the replacement level player is so much less than in a shallower league. Rendon has battled injuries for most of his professional career. Last year he had a MCL knee sprain in Spring Training then he hurt his oblique in a rehab game. Overall, injuries limited him to 80 games and when he did play he didn’t provide much value. I personally discounted his 2015 statistics because his hard hit rate was so much lower than his previous two seasons. If he plays a full year he’s going to bat second and he could score more than 100 runs in that lineup.

DJ LeMahieu is going as the 11th second baseman in NFBC drafts, which is too low. His career road numbers suggest he’s not a good hitter, but that doesn’t matter because he plays half of his games in Colorado. LeMahieu is getting the 2015 Charlie Blackmon treatment in that he’s being overlooked because the road numbers suggest he’s not good and therefore the market suppresses their value during the draft. I projected a .290 batting average because of the home ballpark and the hard hit rate increased 40 percent last year. Also, Walt Weiss is back as the Rockies manager so he could steal 20 bases again.

I have no idea why Joe Panik is being drafted as the 20th second baseman. In 719 career plate appearances he has a .309 batting average with a .336 BABIP. Some fantasy owners may discount the high batting average as BABIP inflated, but I believe that’s essentially his baseline. Panik has a great approach at the plate and makes a lot of contact. If he played a full year he would have finished sixth in contact rate. Last year he missed the second half of the year with a back injury so that is something to monitor in Spring Training. If he plays a full year he could score 100-plus runs in a lineup that should be much improved.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Second Baseman:

This recommendation depends on Chase Utley earning a starting job, but I believe a path to playing every day is easily within reach. I don’t believe Enrique Hernandez’s .302 batting average last year (because of the insanely high BABIP and his ability to make contact in the minors has been very sporadic). Utley had a horrible BABIP 2015, but that came along with a really high hard hit rate; so high that ranked in the top 30 percent of hitters last year. If he plays a full year and maintains the hard hit rate he’s going to hit 16-plus home runs. If he plays he’s going to hit atop the lineup so he could score 80-plus runs. There are a lot of if’s but at his current price he’s worth a look in deeper formats.

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 23 third basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

When looking at third base I recommend drafting one of the top 5-6 third basemen because after that there are a lot of question marks and a ceiling for tremendous upside. Right as I pasted my projections into Google Docs I realized the projected RBI totals for Kyle Seager were too low. The Mariners have OBP issues atop the lineup, but I think he could barely break the 80 barrier (as you will see in the projections below).

The biggest question I have about Justin Turner is can he stay healthy? Last year he dealt with leg and knee issues and he still played the second most games in his career (126). The most games he’s played is 127 in 2011. He turned 31 this past November so expecting more than 125 games played could be far fetched. However, suppose he plays in 135-140 games. He could provide tremendous value. He’s hitting third in a lineup that should at least be above average and most importantly, has the hard hit data to strongly indicate he’s going to drive in a lot of runs.

I’m not buying Matt Carpenter. He hit 28 home runs but that came at a severe cost. The strikeout rate increased seven percentage points (to 22.6 percent) and the swing and miss rate increased nine percentage points compared to the previous season. Despite the new approach his hard hit rate only increased seven percent compared to his career numbers before 2015. The power is going to decrease. The biggest question I have is will the OBP still be there when the power is gone?

If you remove the month of April (where he hit .356) Mike Moustakas was a .270 hitter. That’s still very good in the strikeout era, but if he’s only going to provide 16-21 home runs there’s not a lot of value for the ADP you’re going to have pay on draft day. You may be saying something to the effect of, “he’s still young; he can hit for more power.” He is only 27 years old, but his hard hit rate only increased eight percent while his ground ball rate was the highest it’s been since becoming a full time player. He’ll be a solid player in 2016, but draft appropriately.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Third Baseman:

With Brett Lawrie being traded to the White Sox Danny Valencia will get every chance to be the every day third baseman for the A’s. Valencia was mostly used as a platoon bat, but when the A’s claimed him off waivers he played every day and most importantly, he hit. In 47 games he hit 11 homers with a .886 OPS. For his career he has a .237/.275/.389 slash line against righties, but last year he hit .285/.325/.556 with the lowest strikeout rate since 2011. In regards to hard hit contact he ranked 40th among all qualified players so it’s possible he hits 25-plus home runs. He’ll likely begin the year batting fourth and has a very good chance of staying in that spot all year.

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 34 first basemen. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

Before I discuss the state of the position I wanted to note I included DH-only players with the first basemen. First base is where you’ll find power and after the top 6-7 they all provide the same value, but for different reasons.

At first I thought my Anthony Rizzo ranking was too high, but I’m projecting 11 stolen bases, which gives him a huge leg up over his contemporaries. Last year Rizzo had 17 stolen bases. The previous two seasons he had 11. If I change the projection to only five stolen bases he still ranks as the number three first baseman, but it’s a distant third. Rizzo is going to have many plate appearances with men on-base. Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist combined for a .358 OBP last year. Even if Zobrist falls off a little there are other hitters who can step into the top of the order provide a high OBP. Last year he scored 94 runs. I’m projecting 96, but I think that’s too low.

A lot of fantasy players love Edwin Encarnacion, but I’m very wary. I understand the love. He plays in a great hitters ballpark and easily the best lineup in baseball. However, after looking at last year there a lot of warning signs. For the first four months of the season he was hitting .241 with 19 home runs. What was the most troubling was his hard hit rate was 21.7 percent. From 2012-14 it was 28.5 percent. The drop off may sound like a lot, but that’s nearly a 32 percent drop. In the last two months he hit .344 with 20 home runs and a 36.4 percent hard hit rate. I do not like hitters whose value was dependent upon a short time frame, but if you look at his overall numbers it looks like a typical year for him. The bottom line is how someone evaluates his numbers is all about preference and for me there is a higher probability his value decreases than increases or stabilizes.

The Albert Pujols and Greg Bird projections assumes they play a full year. His projection may change dramatically depending on how looks in Spring Training. Bird probably begins the year in the minors, but if he gets called up he’s going to be on everyone’s priority list during the waiver period.

If Chris Carter plays a full year he’s going to h it 30-plus home runs with a batting average in the .220s, but my biggest reservation is he gets traded at the trade deadline and no longer receives everyday at-bats.

Two years ago everyone loved Wil Myers. He was the 2013 Rookie of the Year and he showed his minor league statistics were translating into the Majors. However, in 2014 he was only limited to 87 games due to an injury where he collided with Desmond Jennings. Last year he only played in 60 games due to a wrist injury. Myers is only 25 years old and will likely bat second or third so he’ll have an opportunity to score and drive in runs. The raw talent is certainly there. The question with him is will he be healthy? His current ADP is 213. At that price I’ll buy.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 First Baseman:

I never believed in Chris Colabello last year but he proved me wrong because he kept hitting. From 2013-14, in 401 plate appearances his slash line was .214/.284/.364. Last year he hit .321 with 15 home runs in only 360 plate appearances. The number that stood out the most was the hard hit rate (24.5 percent). That number may not like much but that is the 33rd highest hard hit rate among qualified hitters last year. If he keeps up last years hard hit rate he could hit 25 home runs with 80-plus RBIs assuming he bats fifth all year. Edwin Encarnacion is basically a DH-only player and Justin Smoak is never going to figure out how to hit so there is a clear path to playing time for Colabello. His ADP is 328, which means he’s basically an after thought. He won’t be for me on draft day.