Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

Since coming off the DL, in three starts, Derek Holland has 20 strikeouts and one walk. On paper the Mariners matchup looks like a great one, but the Mariners lead the majors in hard hit rate. Holland’s hit rate is very unusual in that he’s not allowing more hard contact, but he’s allowing less soft contact. Since the game is in Seattle I’m willing to bank on Holland’s skill set and the ballpark.

On paper Jon Gray could be a really sneaky streaming option because he’s on the road against a below average offense in a pitcher’s park. However, he allows a lot of hard contact, which doesn’t bode well for him. The counter point is he’s only had two of his six starts on the road. In his two road starts he has a 25.6 percent strikeout rate and 9.3 percent walk rate. He has many expected outcomes so buyer beware.

Colin Rea doesn’t have a high upside ceiling in regards to his overall future potential, but he faces the Rockies at home and a depleted Giants offense in San Francisco. Rea throws four pitches for strikes, but the quality of his is merely average. He’s only had five starts, but he’s allowing a lot of hard hit contact. So much so he would be on of the worst pitchers among qualified starting pitchers. He has a .338 BABIP so maybe he has been a little unlucky and the hard contact could be a little fluky, but from what I’ve seen he’s been hard hit because his command hasn’t been as good as it needs to be.

Since June Chris Heston has a 3.36 ERA and 1.249 WHIP (in 16 starts). He’s a high walker, but he’s been able to be successful because he ranks in the top 25 percent among qualified starting pitchers in ground ball rate. The Diamondbacks against righties, for the year, are tenth in hard hit rate and 11th in wOBA. The fact the game is in Arizona hurts Heston, but the Diamondbacks have the third highest ground ball rate so Heston will likely induce a lot of ground balls and should provide at least a quality start.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Friday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

Carlos Rodon has had four straight quality starts (1.61 ERA and 1.00 WHIP), but I’m still not believing this is a hot streak or he’s turned a corner. During this span his walk rate is 10.2 percent and before those four starts 12.9 percent. Also, the strike percentage is also the same. The biggest difference is the BABIP. During the four starts .219 and before .366. I believe Rodon has the raw stuff to be a top 25 starting pitcher, but I don’t trust pitchers with such a high walk rate.

In 26 road starts since 2014 Jake Odorizzi has a 4.97 ERA, 1.414 WHIP and 12.7 percent HR/FB rate. For comparison, his home HR/FB rate during that same time frame is 4.7 percent. Odorizzi doesn’t have overpowering stuff, which is why he’s been a much better pitcher at home.

Hector Santiago has two great matchups this week. Both the A’s and Rangers do not make a lot of hard hit contact against lefties. For most of Santiago’s career (as a starter) walks have been a problem for him. However, since June his walk rate is only 6.9 percent. Also, the strikeout rate is 21.5 percent. I would have ranked him higher, but the Angels have the worst offense in August and I have doubts if they are going to score enough runs for him to earn wins.

In Colin McHugh’s last five starts he has a 1.89 ERA, 1.110 WHIP and a 25 percent strikeout rate. Since the All-Star Break the Mariners have the scored the seventh most runs in the majors so this matchup is not the cake walk as it seems on paper. However, the reason why I like McHugh has been the introduction of a cutter. The cutter is allows him to miss more bats and most importantly, allows the fastball to play up.

My approach to ranking/selecting pitchers in GPP formats on DraftKings is broken into three parts.

1. How good is the pitcher? This may sound overly simplistic but I’ll never use a pitcher unless I believe he has a high likelihood he can get outs consistently. I use three statistics primarily to evaluate a pitcher: strikeout rate, hard hit rate and hit distribution (ground balls and fly balls). Strikeouts are not the end all, be all because there are different expectations based on the pitchers salary. Strikeouts are very important, but they need to evaluated and rooted in the second part.
2. What is the pitcher’s salary? There different point expectation levels for each salary range. A pitcher with five digits implies he is going to provide 27-plus points (usually with a lot of strikeouts) and the likelihood of that are high. A pitcher below $7,000 means expectations should be lowered. Therefore, expect 10-14 points with the expectation he could score in the single digits. When evaluating a pitcher below $7,000 I’m looking for a quality start with moderate strikeouts (4-5) over 6-plus innings. The reason why is these pitchers may not have the ceiling as the pricier pitchers, but they may the higher ROI potential. By that I mean, if a $6,500 pitcher provides 19 points that’s better than a $11,000 pitcher providing 27 points because the ROI (return on investment) is better. Or in other words, you’re making more points per dollar spent.
3. Who is the pitcher playing and where is the game? Everyone uses Coors as an example as a place where to not choose a pitcher, but let’s take it a little further. Obviously you don’t want a pitcher pitching in Coors, but what about a fly ball pitcher in Milwaukee? I’m not using a fly ball pitcher in that ballpark because the likelihood of home run is higher than in another ballpark like Oakland or Minnesota. The initial team statistics I look at is wOBA and hard hit rate against the handedness pitcher. These statistics quickly provide insight into how effective the offense is. It’s very important to take these statistics into context because players may have been injured and come back into the lineup. The next team statistic is strikeout and hit distribution against the handedness pitcher. For example, if a team hits a lot of ground balls, the pitcher generates a lot of ground balls and is only priced $6,500 odds are I’m going to use him.