Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 32 closers. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

Someone is going to have 48-50 saves. The thing is, I have no idea who it’s going to be. However, from my research the best predictor is pitchers who pitch on teams that earn a lot of wins. For example, there’s a reason why Mariano Rivera averaged 40 saves every full season he played.

When I made my projections I looked at two things: 1) how good will the team be? 2) how likely will he keep the job all year?

I projected Trevor Rosenthal to have the most saves. He’s more 45 and 48 saves the past two years respectively. He did rank as my top closer because hes a WHIP liability. My number one closer is Wade Davis. Davis has been one of the best relievers the past two seasons and he’s on a team that should have a lot of low scoring leads at the end of the game. If I were to bet who has the most saves at the end of the year it would be Davis.

With Jake McGee getting traded means Brad Boxberger will be the Rays closer. I loved Boxberger entering 2015 because he struck out 42 percent of batters. Last year that decreased 15 percentage points and the walk rate soared to almost 12 percent. McGee will get every chance to be the closer all year because there aren’t any other good options in the bullpen.

I know Mark Melancon had 50 saves last year, but I’m worried about his prospects this year. He no longer misses a lot of bats and relies on generating weak contact to get outs. The Pirates are among the leaders in baseball in defensive positioning, but that doesn’t mean he could struggle and possibly lose the closer role. The odds of him losing the role are low, but they’re not as low as the other relievers being drafted at his ADP.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Closer:

I ranked three Brewers relievers as the possible closer. Will Smith is the best reliever, but since he’s left handed probably will not get the job. If he was able to throw 65-70 innings he could easily have 100 strikeouts. Just because the Brewers are not expected to be good, do not forget Francisco Rodriguez had 44 saves two seasons ago.

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 81 outfielders. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

The first thing that stands out is Mike Trout is my fourth outfielder and I do not believe it’s going to change. In fact, it’s possible he falls a couple of spots as we get closer to Spring Training. The Angels lineup is Trout and Kole Calhoun and a bunch of replacement level players. Daniel Nava and Todd Cuningham are slated to be everyday players. If Albert Pujols misses a lot of time I have doubts if he can score 100 runs. The Angels lack OBP atop the lineup so Trout is going to have a lot plate appearances with no runners on-base. Most importantly, his stolen bases have decreased year-over-year since 2012. If steals less than ten bases I wouldn’t be shocked. Trout is seen as a sure thing and I get it; he’s one of the top 2-3 players in baseball. However, he may not steal bases and his accounting statistics may be suppressed by the players around him.

When drafting Ryan Braun and Giancarlo Stanton you’re rolling the dice health-wise. Braun had back surgery in the offseason and said, “The only surprise is the rehab is a little longer than I was anticipating, just a couple months of rehab. Other than that, everything was as expected.” (source: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). The Brewers are not going anywhere next year and he’s owed $105M for the next five years. If he has any type of nagging injury the Brewers are going to play it safe and not play him. Stanton missed half of the season with a fractured wrist. He injured the wrist swinging and missing. At the time of the injury he led the majors in home runs and RBI (27 and 67 respectively). He’s only played more than 123 games in two of six seasons.

Adam Jones’ batting average was career low last year, which concerning. However, his hard hit rate suggests he had some bad luck with BABIP. He missed the last two weeks of the year with back spasms. Maybe back issues were the reason why he only had four stolen base attempts (all of which came in the first two months of the season). Either way, it looks like the days of 14-plus bases are gone. The resigning of Chris Davis will help Adam Jones in runs scored.

Among all qualified hitters last year Billy Burns had the lowest hard hit rate and the highest hard hit rate. Despite those numbers he hit .294 and stole 26 bases. The A’s fan in me is trying hard to not think of Jemile Weeks. If you forgot, Weeks had a great rookie season that was entirely BABIP fueled and was never good again. Both are/were speed-first switch hitters without a lot of power. I watched a lot of Burns and I think the hard hit numbers do not tell the whole store. I’ve seen his home runs and the doubles in the gaps; he has the enough power to keep pitchers honest. The A’s are going to give him every chance to be the leadoff hitter. I projected 35 stolen bases, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he steals 40-plus.

I’m only projecting 480 at-bats for David Peralta because he’ll probably be platooned against lefties. However, Peralta can flat out hit. Against right handed pitching he had the 17th best hard hit rate. He only has 171 plate appearances against lefties and I wished the Diamondbacks gave him a chance to play every day to see if he can hit lefties or not. He’s going to hit fourth behind AJ Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt so he’s going to have a lot of plate appearances with runners on-base.

I love Michael Conforto, but my biggest question is: where will he hit in the lineup? Based on the current roster I expect him to bat seventh, which means he’s not going to have many RBI opportunities and little run scoring opportunities. After Yoensis Cespedes leaves after 2016 I think Conforto will bat fourth in 2017. Conforto’s power is legitimate, but I don’t know how many men will be on-base when hits those home runs.

Based on the early NFBC ADP data I’m not going to own Miguel Sano. His power is legitimate, but my question is at what cost will be the power come from? It’s hard for me to project more than a .240 batting average for a player who strikes out 35.5 percent of the time. The bottom line with Sano is there’s a really wide set of outcomes. He could struggle immensely the first five weeks of the year and he could be back in triple-a. He could also have 18 home runs and a .270 batting average after the first two months.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Outfielder:

Christian Yelich has been incredibly consistent every year in the majors. Last year he went on the DL twice: a right knee contusion in August and a lower back strain in April. Despite his home run totals he makes a lot of hard contact. Last year he finished 18th, right behind Nolan Arenado. He has a career 17.7 percent HR/FB rate on the road compared to 4.3 percent at home. He’s only 24 years old and I wouldn’t be shocked if finishes the year as a 20/20 player with a .290-plus batting average.

The start of the 2016 season is quickly upon us so it’s time to start talking about baseball again. Below you’ll find my top 28 shortstops. The rankings are based on NFBC style leagues with 12-teams.

The shortstop position is incredibly thin. If you’re playing with a middle infield position you’re going to want to fill the position with a second baseman. If you miss out on Carlos Correa this is the position where I’m going to draft stolen bases. Stolen base totals were down league wide. In fact it was the lowest its been since 1974. Elvis Andrus and Jean Segura do not have immense upsides, but you can bank 20-plus bases with upside for 40.

I assumed Wilmer Flores plays every day, but he currently does not have a starting job. I’m probably too low on Jhonny Peralta’s account numbers if he’s going to hit fourth in the lineup (as RosterResource is projecting). My projection of Peralta assumes he splits time in the 5-6 spots in the lineup.

Despite the hard hit rate increase I do not believe the 21 home runs for Brandon Crawford are repeatable. The primary reason is the 14.3 percent HR/FB rate probably will not repeat. So, instead of hitting eight home runs at home he maybe only hits 4-5. I’m projecting 16 home runs so I think the power increase is real, but I’m not going to draft him with 20 home runs as his new baseline.

As a prospect scouts said Xander Bogaerts had the raw power to hit 30-plus home runs. In nearly 1,300 plate appearances he only has 20. He turned 23 this past October so he still has plenty of time to grow into his power. I’m projecting 12 home runs, which feels a little low. I think 14-16 is more realistic, but I digress. It’s reductive to simply say 2015’s batting average was due to BABIP, but all the advanced numbers suggest it was BABIP. For example, he hit .347 on ground balls, the third highest among qualified batters. Looking at the NFBC ADP data it looks like the market is properly valuing Bogaerts.

I Would Not Be Shocked If He Finishes Year As Top 10 Shortstop:

Of all the players at the position I would not be surprised if Addison Russell takes a giant leap without any statistical indicators. The leap could come as early as 2016. In 2013 I watched him in High-A Stockton and everyone raved about his work ethic. When choosing players that could breakout I prefer players who have better raw tools and pedigree. The biggest impediment for 2016 is he’s going to hit at the bottom of the lineup so his account statistics will be limited. Even if Ben Zobrist or Jason Heyward get hurt there other options that would receive the opportunity atop the lineup. However, if he plays a full year he’s a relative safe bet for a 10/10 with the upside for 20/20.