Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

In my starting pitcher rankings for week 15 I rated Francisco Liriano 63rd overall even though he’s pitched great this season and was pitching in a very pitcher friendly ballpark. On Wednesday (July 10) I saw Liriano dominate the A’s for seven innings.

For the year he has a 2.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with nine wins in 76.2 innings (12 starts). So odds are if you own Liriano you’re incredibly happy with the results you’ve received thus far. Among starting pitchers with at least seven starts Liriano ranks tenth overall in strikeout rate (25.3 percent) and second in swing and miss rate (32.4 percent). Now his 8.9 percent walk rate may look high, but with a career 10.5 percent walk (prior to 2013) it looks as though he’s made strides to improve his command; his strike rate is the second highest it’s been in his career.

However, the question every fantasy owner has is will his performance continue? No, but I don’t believe he’s going to regress back to his career statistical levels. With a HR/FB rate of 5.6 percent, he’s going to eventually allow more home runs because I do not believe he’s solved the problem of not allowing home runs. He’s won 75 percent of starts, which isn’t going to continue. He’s on pace for 18 wins, which is high. If I had to take the over-under on 13.5 wins I would take the over … just barely. In his 12 starts this season only four of them were against teams with a record better than .500, so he’s faced a soft schedule to begin the year. What’s most important is will he able to stay healthy the rest of the season. In six professional years in baseball (Big Leagues and Minors) he’s only averaged 156 innings a year and has only qualified for the ERA title once in his career.

So my verdict is, if you own him, keep him because you probably will not find enough value in trade. I bet by the end of the year, assuming he finishes the year, he has 14 wins with a 3.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, which is extremely valuable.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Cole Hamels is scheduled to pitch against the White Sox and Nationals, the 28th and 30th ranked offenses, respectively, in terms of OPS against lefties; fantasy owners could not get a better weekly matchup. As of now, Matt Harvey is expected to pitch next Sunday, the last game of the week before the All-Star break. If he does in fact pitch on Sunday, he will not be eligible to pitch at the All-Star Game. Since the All-Star Game is in New York (Citi Field), it makes too much sense for the Mets to not throw Harvey on Sunday and allowing him to start the game. In the last 30 days, the Yankees are 29th in the majors in OPS, making them a great streaming option.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: Matt Garza, in his last starts, is striking out nearly 24 percent of batters while only walking 6.8 percent of batters, resulting in a 0.90 ERA and WHIP. Overall, he’s maintained his strikeout rate (22 percent) compared to the last two years while reducing the usage of the slider, his best secondary pitch. Even though he’s throwing the fastball more, he’s throwing it less often for strikes (4 percent than the last two years) and is generating a lower swing-and-miss rate (15 percent less than the last two years). Combine all that with a .255 BABIP for the year, Garza has been getting lucky and isn’t this good. However, with a start against the free-swinging White Sox, Garza is a great option this week. Jose Fernandez, in his last six starts, has a 1.34 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. With Giancarlo Stanton and Logan Morrison in the lineup, the Marlins are scoring runs, which allows Fernandez a great opportunity to win some games. Having already pitched 92.2 innings he only has 60-70 innings before he’s shut down. Last night, I originally had Matt Cain in the backend of my top 20 because had a very impressive five starts in a row — 1.82 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. However, after seeing him get blasted by the Dodgers last night, I had to drop him. I try to avoid overreacting to one start, good or bad, but it’s the way he looked. He couldn’t throw the ball for strikes, and when he did, those pitches found barrels.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: Doug Fister has pitched a lot better than his baseball card statistics would indicate. He’s generating ground balls 57 percent of the time, second most among starting pitchers with at least 10 starts and is only walking 3.7 percent of batters, seventh best among starters. If you can get him at a discount, you should buy right now. In seven home games, Eric Stults has a 2.85 ERA and 0.87 WHIP compared to a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in road games this year. With two starts at home against the struggling Giants and overrated Rockies, add him to your roster right now. Francisco Liriano is scheduled against the Oakland Athletics, the fourth best offense in terms of OPS against left handed pitching. Liriano is missing a ton of bats, but he’s not going to continue to sport a 6.4 percent HR/FB rate the rest of the year. Bud Norris has been a pleasant surprise this year, but there are some major red flags. His strikeout rate has decreased five percentage points compared to last year, and his ground ball rate isn’t large enough to sustain his 3.22 ERA. Also, his 5.5 percent HR/FB rate is going to regress eventually. The Astros should trade him sooner rather than later while his value is at his highest.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Many forget Joe Kelly was a serious contender to win the fifth spot in the Cardinals rotation over Shelby Miller. Kelly has pitched extremely well in long relief and has a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s that allows him to miss a ton of bats. Since he hasn’t been stretched out, he may only be able to pitch 5-6 innings, limiting his opportunity to earn a win, but he’s facing the struggling Cubs. Derek Holland has pitched great, but with two brutal matchups against the Tigers and Orioles, fantasy owners are better served with leaving him on your bench. With a FIP of 3.89, Stephen Fife isn’t as good as the numbers would indicate. However, he can miss enough bats, generates ground balls nearly 50 percent of the time and most importantly, is pitching in L.A. In Jeremy Hellickson’s last four starts, he has a 1.38 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and a 23 percent strikeout rate and 7 percent walk rate. There weren’t many bigger fans of Hellickson than me this preseason, but I want to see two or three quality outings before he’s a must start.

Avoid

Additional Information: Tyler Skaggs pitched really well Friday night against the Rockies. Before the year began, I wasn’t as high on Skaggs because the lack of a quality third pitch (change-up). In order to be a successful starter a pitcher needs to have at least three quality pitches to get through a lineup three times. On Friday, his change-up flashed plus, generating swings and misses 71.4 percent of the time. If he can continue to develop the change-up, he could easily be a top 40-50 fantasy starting pitcher. Chris Archer has an electric arm, and I was extremely disappointed when he didn’t make the big-league club after spring training because I thought he was ready to contribute at the major-league level. However, in seven starts this year, Archer has been less than stellar, having trouble throwing strikes consistently and walking batters 13 percent of the time. However, if you are in need of strikeouts and can afford a hit to your WHIP, roll the dice with Archer because he will not have as good of matchup again.

With Homer Bailey pitching a no hitter tonight it’s possible David Price’s fantastic start may go unnoticed. Tonight was obviously his return from the DL with forearm soreness and this was by far the best start from him all year. His fastball had extremely good life on it, reaching 95 mph at least 20 times. He had excellent command, throw the fastball effectively on both sides of the plate for strikes. The cutter, curveball and changeup all looked great. Also, he had no walks and never had a three ball count the entire game. If you have an opportunity to buy him, go do it now!

Just finished watching the Royals game. Bottom of the ninth, runners on first and second with one out. Alcidies Escobar is due up and is allowed to bat even though Lorenzo Cain and George Kottaras are sitting on the bench. I’m very glad I’m not a Royals fan because what’s the point of having your best players sit on the bench as one of your worst hitters bat in a high leverage situation. If you didn’t watch the game, Escobar struck out and Eric Hosmer hit a grounder to the shortstop to end the game. I legitimately had high hopes for the Royals in the preseason, but Dayton Moore is going to get fired because Ned Yost is easily one of the worst tactical managers in the league. Speaking of the Indians, Corey Kluber looked extremely sharp through the first four innings of the game. However, the fifth inning began with two bloop singles and a walk before Alex Gordon hit a grand slam. I’m not off the Kluber bandwagon, but he’s only a streaming option.