Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

When I was setting my weekly lineup to begin the week the biggest dilemma I faced was whether to start Matt Moore or David Phelps. I originally had Phelps rated higher that Moore in my starting pitcher rankings last week, but after watching him get pummeled by the Orioles on Saturday I had to reconsider my ranking. Monday morning I replaced Phelps with Moore in my starting lineup. Basically, Moore and Phelps had the same strikeout rate and relatively the same walk rate, but the major difference between the two was the likelihood of dominating and earning a win. As I watched the Rays game (live for a change) I was pleasantly surprised to see pitching well in bursts. His command, again, continually shifted from great to awful, but fortunately for him the Astros have the highest strikeout rate (26.3 percent) against lefties. Like I said last week, Moore has a favorable matchup later this week against the White Sox. If he has a good start, trade him.

I also caught the Blue Jays, Tigers game. Total aside, but apparently it was Canada Day? I wanted to catch R.A Dickey because in his last three starts (prior to yesterday’s game) his box scores looked promising. Yesterday he had really good command of the knuckleball and threw the fastball more often, keeping hitter’s from sitting on the knuckleball. In his last four starts (including yesterday’s start) he’s reduced his walk rate from 9.3 percent to 6.3 percent while maintaining his strikeout rate. Also, he’s throwing more strikes; 70 percent compared to 62 percent. To begin the year Dickey was dealing with back and neck problems as well as a cracked fingernail, but this may be the beginning of a return to form. He’s not likely to return to the Cy Young level of performance, but he can certainly put up the numbers in 2011 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. I’m buying low.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Johnny Cueto left his start with a latissimus injury Friday night. He’s been on the DL two times this year with a right latissimus strain. It is unclear how much time he will miss, if any, but he wiped away tears as he walked off the field, which tells me it can’t be good. I haven’t believed in Patrick Corbin all year, but he’s tied for the most quality starts in the majors with 14 and gets an opportunity to pitch against the Mets. Hisashi Iwakuma is a really good pitcher, but eventually his .233 BABIP will regress and he’s not going to end the year with more than the 14 wins he’s projected to have. Sell now.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: Matt Cain has been vintage Cain in his past four starts with a 2.02 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. However, in five career starts at Great America Ballpark, he has a 3.44 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, which doesn’t make him a must-start. Don’t look now, but Matt Garza, in his last three starts, has a 26.7 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate with a 0.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. With the trade deadline quickly approaching, the list of contending ball clubs looking for additional pitching will be long. With a successful track record in both the NL and AL, Garza will play the final two months for a contending team, most likely an NL West team, according to Buster Olney. Buy low right now. After a hot start to begin the year, Lance Lynn has only been mediocre with a 4.13 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his last nine starts. However, he plays on the best team in the NL and gets an opportunity to pitch against the Marlins.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: Despite a good-looking box score in his last outing against the Blue Jays, Matt Moore has been wildly inconsistent all year, looking masterful one inning and looking like Mike Oquist the next inning. With two above-average matchups against the Astros and White Sox, now is the time to put him in your starting lineups. If he performs well, trade him (non-keeper leagues) because his inconsistency will ruin your ratios at any time. Gerrit Cole may not provide the strikeout numbers his stuff warrants, but he has looked really good in all of his starts. With the vast majority of his pitches thrown with a velocity greater than 94 mph, hitters will eventually catch up to or time his fastball, which will limit his effectiveness as the season progresses. For this week, start Cole with confidence. Even after two horrible starts for Rick Porcello, I’m not jumping off the bandwagon. He pitched effectively in his last start, but a lot of balls found holes and became hits, which is evidenced by a .476 BABIP. If he’s available in your league, go get him. A must-sit was my initial reaction when I saw Chris Tillman was facing the Yankees, in Yankee Stadium. However, in the past month, the Yankees have the lowest OPS and wOBA (weighted on-base average) in majors, not the AL, but the majors.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Jeff Locke has a 3.84 FIP, which is nearly two points higher than his ERA. Also, Locke is a command and control pitcher with fringe average stuff. If I were a betting man, I would take the over on a 3.90 ERA by the end of the year. For a more in-depth “scouting” report on Locke please go here. In the month of June, Tim Hudson (five starts) has a 1.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. During this time, he’s generating ground balls nearly 60 percent of the time and striking out 19 percent hitters. Among starting pitchers, Doug Fister has the highest ground-ball rate with 58 percent for the year.

Avoid

Additional Information: In Mark Buehrle’s last six starts, he’s quietly started to rebound from a poor beginning to the season with a 2.75 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. There’s quite a bit of luck with the ERA, but if you’re looking for a spot start that won’t hurt your ratios, Buehrle is a solid option. Of course, after I say Jeremy Hellickson should dropped in all leagues, he rattles off two quality starts in a row. On paper, this is a great matchup, but after watching his past two starts, I’m not entirely convinced he’s turned a corner. Drew Pomeranz is the biggest wild card of the list. His biggest problem last year was the lack of a put-away pitch and poor command of his change-up. Without command of the change-up, he’s a two-pitch pitcher who will have a difficult time finding success the second and third time through a lineup. However, he currently has a 10.09 K/9 in triple-A, the highest it’s been since 2011. Trevor Cahill, in his last seven starts has a 7.34 ERA, 1.66 WHIP with a .362 BABIP. His biggest problem has been location of the sinker, which has resulted in a .329/.378/.500 slash line.

Hello, I have a 3.95 ERA, 1.40 WHIP with a 21.8 percent strike out rate and 12.6 percent walk rate. Would you like me to join your fantasy roster? Based on those numbers most fantasy owners would say no, but this player is owned in over 90 percent of leagues. I am Matt Moore. Last night Moore had 11 strikeouts, six walks and allowed four hits in six innings against the Blue Jays. The biggest takeaway from the start (and for the season) is he’s an enigma. In the first inning he was extremely sharp with this command, throwing the fastball on both sides of the plate and generating filthy swings and misses on the curveball. In the second and third innings he lost command entirely; he couldn’t throw the fastball inside; he lost the feel for the changeup. In the fourth and fifth inning the command returned and he looked great again. The sixth inning was more like the second and third. Overall, the box score looked great, but I’m still not confident in his viability moving forward. His next starts are @Houston, White Sox and Twins so you’re probably going to start him in those matchups, but after that you should try to trade high. If you’re in a NFBC style league with no trades, you have to hold onto him because his ceiling is too high to let go. That said, I would understand if an owner dropped him.

On paper, Zack Wheeler had a very favorable matchup against the free swinging White Sox, but he only managed to strikeout one batter. Unlike the first start, which he threw primarily fastballs, Wheeler threw a lot of breaking pitches (curveballs and sliders) with mixed results. Mets Manager, Terry Collins said the slider is his best secondary pitch, but after two starts the curveball looks like the better pitch. Either way this start it looked as though the Mets mandated Wheeler to throw his secondary pitches more. In terms of the curveball Wheeler was slowing his arm down and if I can notice it, the hitters definitely noticed it. The slider, just like all of his secondary pitches, is still a work in progress as he doesn’t have good command of it yet. For every good slider there were 2-3 poor ones. Another major concern is his inability to hold runners, yesterday he allowed three stolen bases; one of which he didn’t even look at the runner on first. Overall, Wheeler is far from a finished product and will have starts like these. He should be owned in all leagues, but he’s a streaming option. His start he’s home against the Nationals and is a must start. If you can get $1.10 for him in a non-keeper league I would make the move immediately.

Even after two horrible starts for Rick Porcello I’m not jumping off the bandwagon. He pitched effectively, suffered from a .476 BABIP last night. He made good pitches, but all the contact that was made against him found holes in the defense. Also, he left the game only allowing four runs; the Tigers reliever allowed the next three runs to score.