Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Friday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. You can find the original  post at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Since June 24, Jered Weaver has the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.31) with a 23.2 percent strikeout rate and a 5.4 percent walk rate. If Yu Darvish did not go on the DL, he would currently be on pace for 300+ strikeouts. Clayton Kershaw is most likely to be the number-one pitcher entering the 2014 season, but Darvish will be a close second. Since coming off the DL, David Price has a 1.68 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP. Most importantly his fastball is averaging 94 mph and has topped out at 96.8 mph.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: Since joining the rotation, Joe Kelly has 3.10 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and a 17.2 percent strikeout rate and 8.4 walk rate. Only averaging 5.2 innings per start limits his ability to earn wins, but he’s a great option to enhance your ratios. Chris Archer has been nothing less of amazing in his last six starts: 1.29 ERA, 0.76 WHIP with a 16 percent strikeout rate and 6.4 percent walk rate. Of the six starts, four came against the Yankees, Twins and the Astros twice. Archer has a great matchup against the Diamondbacks, but expectations should be tempered. Assuming Tigers plan to start the newly acquired Jose Iglesias starts at shortstop when Ric Porcello and Doug Fister start, their individual rankings increase at least five spots moving forward. Wade Miley in his last seven starts: 1.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a 53 percent ground ball rate; this could be a return to his 2012 form.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: Matt Cain in his last three starts has a 1.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP with a 22 percent strikeout rate and 8.5 walk rate. If you’re a Cain owner, you have to start him, especially in a two-start week at home. The Chicago White Sox have the second lowest OPS in the majors against left handed pitching, making CC Sabathia a great start option. Dillon Gee in his past 11 starts: 2.65 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Despite the great aggregated numbers, in three of those starts, he gave up four or more earned runs. Before putting Gee in your starting lineup, be aware he’s pitching in the band box known as Chase Field. If you’re looking for a win, Chris Tillman has an excellent opportunity against the struggling San Francisco Giants. As of Friday morning, the Giants have a lower winning percentage than the New York Mets. If you held on to Brandon Beachy all year, you’re starting him this week despite one poor outing.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: The Houston Astros are 17th in the majors in OPS against left-handed pitching, so Jon Lester owners shouldn’t automatically pencil in Lester in their starting lineup. Odds are if you’re a Francisco Liriano owner, you’ve received ace-level productivity for the year. All year, I’ve underrated Liriano and I’m doing so again with a start in Colorado. Despite eight consecutive starts allowing two earned runs or less, Jeremy Hefner has allowed 16 runs in his last 11.2 innings. Hefner has suffered from bad luck, specifically a 23.5 percent HR/FB rate and .390 BABIP. If you’re looking for a streaming option and can stomach risk, Hefner is a solid option. Edwin Jackson in his last five starts: 1.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP and has only walked six batters in 34.1 innings. If Jackson was only starting against the Phillies, he would be in the low 60s, but a start at St. Louis worries me.

Avoid

Additional Information: Roberto Hernandez is an enigma. A typical start usually consists of five brilliant  innings and one blow-up inning. With Matt Moore going on the DL, gives Hernandez another 2-3 starts before he’s pushed into the bullpen. One of those starts is in the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, which provides an opportunity for a great start. Since coming off the DL, Ivan Nova has a 2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP with a 23 percent strikeout rate (in six starts), but the fear of a blow-up start is too high. Despite the poor results, I’m still a believer in Erasmo Ramirez. Even though his walk rate is double what it was last year, I’m putting more emphasis in the 2012 numbers than 2013 numbers.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Since June 1, Jose Fernandez quietly has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.82 ERA) and a 26 percent strikeout rate. Speaking of June 1, the New York Yankees have the second fewest home runs in the majors (25), nine less the Miami Marlins. The trade for Alfonso Soriano will help add power to the lineup, but his .284 OBP will not greatly improve the offense. Therefore, Zack Greinke is a must start in all formats. The Tampa Rays are playing great baseball in the majors and the San Francisco Giants are clearly struggling and should be sellers at the trade deadline. Madison Bumgarner pitches a great game, but will earn a win.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: I have no idea why Tyler Chatwood is only owned in 27 percent of ESPN leagues. His stuff isn’t good enough to sustain a 2.48 ERA, but it’s definitely good enough to be a 3.20 ERA. This week Chatwood faces the Braves and their second highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.6 percent). Not only does Matt Moore have a great pitching matchup this week, he has a 1.01 ERA and .084 WHIP in his last five starts. The command of the changeup, his third pitch, has been outstanding; the strikeout rate and swing and miss rate are is 42 percent and 31 percent higher respectively. Despite having a 5.63 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his last eight starts I’m still a believer in Jordan Zimmerman. With a walk rate of only 5 percent, a strikeout rate of 21.6 percent and a BABIP of .331 suggests he’s been unlucky. The Detroit Tigers have the third best OPS in the majors against left handed pitching. Gio Gonzalez has pitched great, but I have doubts that he’s a must-start … especially with a nearly 10 percent walk rate.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: in July (21 games) the Colorado Rockies have the lowest OPS in the majors. What makes that statistic so surgprising is they’ve played a little more than half of the games in Coors Field. The Rockies offense is struggling, which is a great opportunity for Gerrit Cole to have a big day. It looks as though Jake Peavy will be traded before the trade deadline, which means he may miss his start against the Tigers, making him almost a must start. Eric Stults has a 2.45 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home. Stults is a must-start any time he pitches at PETCO Park. Since June 1, CC Sabathia has a 5.78 ERA and 1.34 WHIP (in 10 starts). If he wasn’t pitching in PETCO I would have him in the 70s. Hisashi Iwakuma in last eight starts has a 4.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and now faces the highest scoring offense in the majors in Boston.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Alex Wood features a low- to mid-90s fastball with a plus change-up and a knuckle curveball that can miss a ton of bats (46.7 percent strikeout rate). Despite a poor outing against the New York Mets a few days ago, Wood can miss bats and gets an opportunity to pitch against two bad teams. Don’t be fooled by the 0.60 ERA from Jarred Cosart. He pitches for a bad team, which means it will be hard to earn wins. Combine that with a .214 BABIP, a regression is coming for Cosart. Patrick Corbin has been one of the luckiest pitcher this year with a .246 BABIP, 7.5 percent HR/FB rate and 82.1 percent LOB%. Sell high. Jarrord Parker has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last 13 starts. Parker has not pitched nearly as well as last year, but he’s a pitcher who will not hurt your ratios, which makes him a great backend starter.

Avoid

Additional Information: Carlos Torres has pitched mainly in relief role this year for the Mets, but his last two appearances came as a starter. In those two starts he has a 23.4 percent strikeout rate and only a 4.3 percent walk rate. Torres features a low-90s fastball/cutter with an average curveball and change-up that can miss enough bats to be a solid streaming option, especially at home against the Royals who will be playing without Billy Butler or Eric Hosmer. I have not believed in Jeff Locke all year because he doesn’t miss enough bats and walks too many batters to maintain his 2.14 ERA. I believe his FIP of 3.83 and xFIP of 4.19 are a better numerical representation of good he is of a pitcher.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional information: Matt Harvey has pitched 130 innings so far this year, which leaves him about 40 innings left. The Detroit Tigers have the second highest OPS in the majors against left-handed pitchers. Cliff Lee owners should start him regardless; don’t get too cute. Even though James Shields has a 4.10 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in his last seven starts, he is still an ace facing a bad White Sox offense. After watching the Royals smash Justin Verlander on Saturday, I believe a regression to the 2011-12 version of Verlander isn’t happening. Instead, fantasy owners should expect the pre-2010 Verlander.

Backend Starters

Additional information: Matt Garza, who has a 1.24 and 1.01 WHIP in his last six starts, is scheduled to have two starts this week, but he’s on the trading block and could be traded at any time. I’m all-in on Garza for the rest of the year. In his last four starts, Shelby Miller has a 6.87 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with a 11.4 percent walk rate. Miller is no longer a must-start, but his stuff is so good that he should figure it out. Also, with 103 innings pitched this year, the Cardinals, who have playoff aspirations, are going to need him in the postseason. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals put Miller on the DL with a phantom for 2-3 weeks to limit his workload and to keep him fresh for the playoff run. In his first four starts after returning from the DL, David Price has a 1.97 ERA, 0.84 WHIP with a 0.9 percent walk rate. If Price wasn’t facing the Red Sox in Boston, Price would be a must-start. I put more weight in Doug Fister’s 3.35 FIP than the 4.02 ERA, despite allowing 23 earned runs in his past 36 innings (six starts).

Spot Starters

Additional information: As of now, Kris Medlen has two starts this week, but the rumor is the Alex Wood is going to take Medlen’s spot in the rotation sooner rather than later; he’s already been moved to the fifth spot in the Braves rotation. The Yankees offense is bad, really bad. For the year, they have the third lowest OPS in the majors. If Chris Archer is available in your league, this is a great streaming option, because in his last five starts, he has a 1.69 ERA, 0.88 with a 5.7 percent walk rate. Gerrit Cole will not have better matchups all year with starts against the Nationals and Marlins. Ervin Santana has been amazing this year, but if you can bench him, you should try to find a way. The Braves have the second highest strikeout rate in the majors, which provides a very good matchup for Zack Wheeler and his plus-plus fastball.

Proceed With Caution

Additional information: I was extremely high on Erasmo Ramirez in the preseason because he fills up the strike zone and pitches in a great ballpark that forgives mistake pitches. In his last six starts, Lance Lynn has a 6.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP with only a 20.4 percent strikeout rate; his career strikeout rate in the majors is 24.4 percent. Last year, Lynn struggled significantly in the second half of the season, and it looks as though he is hitting the wall. If you’re looking for wins, Scott Feldman is a great candidate for the rest of the year as he plays on the second-best offense in the majors. Despite three great starts before the All-Star break, Matt Moore is still walking too many hitters (9.1 percent walk rate) and faces the fifth-highest team in OPS against left-handed pitching in the Boston Red Sox. Fantasy owners should expect one poor start and one great one.

Avoid

Additional information: Jake Peavy owners will luck out if he’s traded before his start against the Detroit Tigers. During his Saturday start, his fastball hit 93 mph multiple times, suggesting he could have sustained success the rest of the year. If you can buy low, I would. I’m not a believer that Tyler Skaggs will have sustained success the rest of the year, but with two starts against two bad offenses in a shallow pitcher class this week, it’s hard not to go with the matchup upside. Sonny Gray has shined in his brief few innings in long relief for the Athletics. If Tommy Milone continues to pitch poorly, Gray should take Milone’s spot in the starting rotation. Josh Johnson, in his last five starts has a 6.26 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. I’m staying away for the rest of the year. If you remove wins from the fantasy equation, Chris Tillman is a spot starter at best; Tillman is going to regress to his 4.95 FIP as the year progresses.