Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Friday, September 20 for fantasy baseball week 25. Please be aware these are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top starters

Additional Information: Gerrit Cole has gotten better in each start since his call-up and now, Cole is at the point where he is pitching as an ace. For his nine starts, Cole only had 16.6 percent strikeout rate. In his last nine starts, he has a 25.7 strikeout rate. During the first nine starts, he threw his plus-plus (on the scouting scale) fastball nearly 75 percent of the time.

However, in the last nine starts he has utilized the slider and cutter more. Cole is the best pitcher on the Pirates staff and should start game one of the NLCS (if they make it to the NLCS). Jered Weaver was scratched from his start on Friday with forearm tightness. It’s still up in the air if he will pitch again the rest of the season. And if you are running fantasy baseball week 25 lineups, my hunch is that Weaver will not pitch again because the Angels have nothing to play for, and are better off giving Weaver the offseason to prepare for next season. That said, if he starts next week, you’re starting him.

Backend starters

Additional Information: Jarrod Parker’s start on September 15 was pushed back one day due to flu like symptoms. Parker proceeded to get rocked to the tune of eight runs (seven earned) in his last start (September 16). I’m giving Parker a free pass due to the illness, but I’ll be monitoring his start on Saturday closely to wind up fantasy baseball week 25. Justin Verlander is scheduled to pitch the last day of the season against the Marlins. The Tigers should have the Central sown up by that point and the Tigers will want to setup their starting rotation for the playoffs.

Spot starters

Additional Information: Bartolo Colon’s fastball in his last start looked like the fastball he had to begin the year. Rick Procello has had an up-and-down year, but he has not pitched as poorly as his ERA would indicate, for all those keeping score in fantasy baseball week 25. With a xFIP of 3.32 and the face he’s still only 24 years old he is going to be someone I target in every draft next year.

In three major league starts (against the Tigers, Cardinals and Rays) James Paxton has been fairly effective posting a 15.7 strikeout rate and ten percent walk rate. Walks have been an issue for him this year in the minors because of his long arms and inconsistent delivery, but with a start at home against a team that has been struggling against lefties is worth a gamble.

Proceed with caution

Additional Information: If you’re looking for more information about Tanner Roark, checkout last weeks starting pitcher’s rankings. Other than pitchers missing bats, I love pitchers who do not allow free passes. Brandon McCarthy, in his last five starts (38 innings) has only walked one batter. Rounding out fantasy baseball week 25, Matt Garza in his last ten starts has a 5.51 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Normally, Garza wouldn’t be this high in the rankings, but his upside is the highest of anyone not named R.A. Dickey in this section of the rankings.

Avoid

Additional Information: More for fantasy baseball week 25, A.J. Griffin has an extremely favorable week with starts at Seattle and Los Angeles. Griffin is an extreme fly ball pitcher as he leads all starters with at least 20 starts in fly ball rate (47.8 percent). It’s also no surprise that he has also allowed the most home runs (35). In 39 percent of his starts this year he’s given up four earned runs or more. Therefore, if you start him you’ll be playing with fire with your ratios.

Lastly, your welcome America. Yordano Ventura was up-and-down in his first career start. Specifically, his command was extremely loose which put him in extremely stressful situations the entire game. If it wasn’t for the three double plays he induced, his outing would have been far worse than the box score indicated. If you read my fantasy daily for Wednesday, you would have picked up and used Todd Redmond. Redmond has one extremely tough and one favorable matchup, which is why he is this low in the rankings.

The matchups and statistical data for these fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change.

Top starters

Additional Information: In seven starts the past two years against the Tigers, Chis Sale has been average with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. If you have Sale, you’re starting him; but for those of you in a championship week, be prepared for a lackluster performance. Since the All-Star break, the Marlins have the lowest OPS in the majors, which is why I love Jordan Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez this week. Jarrord Parker has not a lost a game since May 22; since that day, he has a 2.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. I’ve watched all of his starts, and he has great command of his change-up. In terms of 2014 fantasy value, it’s very possible he will be a top-20 starting pitcher in my ranks.

Backend starters

Additional Information: Before the All-Star break, Shelby Miller had a 26.4 percent strikeout rate and a 6.8 percent walk rate. After the All-Star break, his strikeout rate is 21.6 percent and walk rate is 9.3 percent. As of Friday, he’s thrown 156 innings, the most in his professional career. Miller has looked fatigued in his last couple of starts, and the innings may be catching up to him. Danny Salazar, again, looked extremely effective on Friday, striking out nine batters in 3.2 innings. The Indians are trying to limit his workload so going three to five innings per start will limit his ability to earn wins, but he’s a fantastic option if you’re looking for strikeouts. David Price in his last six starts has a 4.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The Orioles are tied for third in the majors in OPS, and Price had a mediocre performance against the Orioles four weeks ago.

Spot starters

Additional Information: All of Jeff Samardzija’s peripherals suggest he’s been the same; his strikeout rates are the same and the walk rate is slightly up. However, his ERA 0.6 points higher than last year. With an xFIP of 3.49, I bet Samardzija will be a draft-day value in 2014. Jon Niese, in his last 13 starts, has a 2.85 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with a solid 20 percent strikeout rate and .341 BABIP. With the emergence of Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee and if Matt Harvey successfully rehabs his elbow in the offseason, the Mets are going to have a fantastic pitching rotation. Think how good the rotation can be if Noah Syndergaard reaches his potential and jumps to the majors some time next year.

Proceed with caution

Additional Information: If you remove the horrendous start in Boston last week, Rick Porcello has a 3.17 ERA in his last 12 starts. I’ve been a Porcello apologist all year, and I’m not jumping off now during the fantasy playoffs. Tanner Roark, who was called up in August, pitched primarily out of the bullpen before pitching effectively in two starts. Roark has a low-to-mid 90s fastball and relies on command and control to generate outs, which isn’t a great recipe for fantasy success. That said, with one start against the Marlins, Roark could be a great roll of the dice. Speaking of the Marlins, Dan Haren also will face the Marlins and Braves. Last week, Haren faced the Marlins and go lit up. He’s given up 16 runs in the past 18.2 innings.

Avoid

Additional Information: Brad Peacock, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, has pitched extremely effectively in his past two starts at Oakland and at Seattle, both great ballparks for fly-ball pitchers. This week, he gets another opportunity to pitch at home, which should allow more fly balls to stay in the ballpark. The two biggest wild cards are Tim Lincecum and Dan Straily as they can provide sensational or horrendous outings. With starts against struggling offenses, either one of these pitchers could provide solid fantasy value. For the year, the Indians have the best OPS against left-handed pitchers, which is why Bruce Chen and his 3.11 ERA is this far down in the rankings.

These fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are based on statistical data pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. You can view the original post at TTFB.

Top starters

Additional Information: Cliff Lee, in his last nine starts, has quietly been very mediocre with a 4.17 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. However, the advanced statstics suggest he’s been unlucky. The walk and strikeout rates are identical compared to the beginning of the year. The ground-ball rate has increased 14.4 percent, but his BABIP, strangely, has risen from .271 to .339.

Backend starters

Additional Information: Hisashi Iwakuma, in his past 15 starts, has a 4.05 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Unlike Cliff Lee, where the underlying peripherals suggest he’s been unlucky, Iwakuma’s numbers suggest he hasn’t pitched as well. Iwakuma’s strikeout rate has decreased 22 percent and his walk rate has increased 33 percent. Speaking of another fantasy ace who’s struggling, David Price has been extremely hittable in his last five starts with a 4.78 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. However, the strikeout and walk rates have maintained for the season, with the biggest difference coming from his BABIP, which is .356 in those five starts. Clay Buchholz had another solid rehab start (he’s had three so far) for the Pawtucket Red Sox, going 3.2 innings and throwing 73 percent strikes. Buchholz has been on the DL since June 9 with a sore neck and looks as though he’ll be ready to face the Tampa Bay Rays this week. Odds are if you owned him for this long, and if you’re in the middle of a playoff race and/or on the cusp of gaining another point (in roto leagues), then it would be extremely difficult to leave him on the bench.

Spot starters

Additional Information: If you remove Zack Wheeler’s first three starts, he has a 3.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 20.3 percent strikeout rate and 9.5 percent walk rate. With the Mets being so bad, I would have Wheeler lower in the rankings because of the decreased likelihood of earning a win, but with a start against the Nationals and Dan Haren, Wheeler has a great opportunity to have a really solid start. To say Matt Cain has been inconsistent in 2013 would be an understatement, but the Dodgers have .696 OPS at home compared to a .750 OPS on the road. Corey Kluber was originally slated to pitch in relief on Friday, but with the injury to Justin Masterson, Kluber will assume Masterson’s spot in the rotation. I loved Kluber before he went on the DL (on August 6) with a finger sprain.

Proceed with caution

Additional Information: The Cleveland Indians have the fifth highest OPS (.750) in the majors against lefties, which is why I would be hesitant to start Hector Santiago. Since the All-Star, break Gerrit Cole has pitched better than his 3.62 ERA would indicate. He’s striking out 21 percent of the batters he faces and is only walking five percent. Five percent may not seem that low, but that puts him in the top 10 percent of starting pitchers. I love pitchers who miss bats and do not allow free passes. Next year, if Cole is in the starting rotation to begin the year, he will most likely be top 30-35 starting pitcher for me. If you remove Ubaldo Jimenez’s first four starts of the year, he has a 2.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP with a 23.3 strikeout rate and 11.3 walk rate. With a WHIP that high, his ERA is unlikely to sustain, but he’s been extremely effective in bursts.

Avoid

Additional Information: If you’re wondering why Bartolo Colon is not on the list, it’s because his fastball velocity was still down in his last start; his max velocity was 93 mph, which is three mph less than before he went on the DL. Since July (13 starts) Lance Lynn has a 5.47 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. His .366 BABIP suggests he has been unlucky, but his BABIP has been so high because the command has been extremely loose, and he’s thrown a lot of meatballs in the middle of the plate.