Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Continuing on my initial fantasy rankings for the upcoming 2014 season, I’m now looking first base. This position used to be one of the deepest positions in fantasy, but when I was ranking these players I couldn’t believe the drop off after the first eight players. You’ll find more in-depth information in my fantasy guide in early March.

Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.

1. Paul Goldschmidt – if you read last year’s fantasy guide you would have seen how I was down on Goldschmidt based on his profile and the scouting reports as a prospect; well I was wrong and he’s the clear number one.
   
2. Joey Votto – 2013 may have been a “down” year for Votto, only driving in 73 runners; however, do not forget he basically had the worst hitter in the lineup batting in front of him for most of the year; if the Reds new manager constructs a proper lineup I’m expecting Votto to rebound.
   
3. Edwin Encarnacion – followed his breakout season with another great season; his approach at the plate improved and he struck out less (four percentage points).
   
4. Freddie Freeman – for the past three years he’s had the following home run totals: 21, 23 and 23. The reason he’s higher than Chris Davis and Prince Fielder is he has more upside; he just turned 24 and will bat in the middle of one of the best lineups (on paper) in the majors.
   
5. Chris Davis – Davis had a great season; if you owned Davis and didn’t finish either first or second in your leagues you should consider spending your time doing something else; however, before this season his career slash line was .258/.310/.466. The second half of the 2013 season his slash line was .245/.339/.515 … looks similar to his career numbers; basically, he greatly benefited from a great start of the season and fell back down to earth.
   
6. Prince Fielder – since 2011 his slugging percentage, wOBA and isolated power has decreased year over year; he’ll play most of the 2014 season at 30 years old; this could be the start of an even bigger decline.
   
7. Eric Hosmer – he is legit.
   
8. Allen Craig – with Carlos Beltran likely leaving this offseason, look for Matt Adams to become the everyday first baseman and Craig to be the every day right fielder, which increases his injury risk.
   
9. Adrian Gonzalez – last year he 18 home runs; this year only 22; his power upside may be in the upper 20s and no longer in the mid 30s.
   
10. Anthony Rizzo
11. Victor Martinez – he only played 11 games at first this year so check your eligibility rules; after a slow start to the season he went on to have a slash line of .361/.413/.500 after the all-star break.
    
12. Buster Posey
13. Nick Swisher – dealt with an undisclosed left shoulder issue all year so it’s difficult to understand how much it may have impacted his performance; Eno Sarris at FanGraphs argues the injury improved his swing.
    
14. Michael Cuddyer – he’s going to be 35 on Opening Day and I doubt he has a .382 BABIP again.
    
15. Carlos Santana
16. Mark Trumbo
17. Albert Pujols – I want nothing to do with Pujols next year; since his season early, he will have more time to rehab and it’s possible he could be as close to 100 percent healthy, which will make him primed for a big year, but his performance was in decline before 2013 season … count me out.
    
18. Brandon Moss – in his past 801 plate appearances he has 51 home runs, which is 50 more I thought he would have before the start of the 2012 season;
    
19. Matt Adams – if Adams is expected to be the everyday first baseman, he’s a top 10 first baseman for me.
    
20. Mark Teixeira
21. Kendrys Morales – had another solid year even though he played in Seattle; he’s a great fit for the Mariners and they have the best chance of retaining his services for 2014.
    
22. Daniel Nava
23. Mike Napoli
24. Chris Carter
    
25. Brandon Belt – after the all-star break had a slash line of .326/.390/.525; however, he only had seven home runs; my biggest question is will he hit for enough power to be fantasy relevant in 10-12 mixed leagues?
    
26. Ike Davis – after coming back from the minors his slash line was .267/.429/.443 with only four home runs; he has Chris Davis upside is worth a gamble at the end of your drafts
    
27. Adam Dunn
28. Mitch Moreland – should be replaced by Ian Kinsler at first base, but if not, he moves up a few spots.
    
29. Adam LaRoche
30. Ryan Howard
31. Justin Morneau
32. James Loney

With the playoffs almost half over and the start of the next season months away I became ansty in wanting to think about the rankings of for the 2014 season. Below you’ll find my initial top 25 catcher rankings with some notes. For the position overall, this a deep position, especially in one catcher leagues, and fantasy owners should wait again before drafting one.

Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.

1. Buster Posey – with Brandon Belt likely to see more time in left field, Posey will most likely see more time at first base in 2014, which will allow him
2. Wilin Rosario  – defensive struggles may ultimately push him off the position, but his numbers were not a product of Coors Field; his triple slash line at home is nearly identical to his road numbers.
3. Yadier Molina – he’ll next season at the age of 32; there’s a lot of mileage on his knees and catchers age quicker than other positions; I wouldn’t be surprised if Molina takes a step back.
4. Carlos Santana – like Rosario, will most likely spend more time at first base and DH than catcher.
5. Joe Mauer
6. Jonathan Lucroy
7. Salvador Perez – he’s only 23 years old and one of the best defensive catchers in the game; Perez will most likely fifth or sixth in a lineup that should improve.
8. Matt Wieters
9. Jason Castro – there’s no way he has a .351 BABIP or 16.50% HR/FB rate again.
10. Brian McCann – where he lands will dramatically affect his rankings, but he will most likely play in the AL (Texas Rangers make the most sense)
11. Devin Mesoraco – once a top 25 prospect a year ago will finally get an opportunity to play every day after Dusty Baker was fired.
12. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – is a free agent, but there’s 80% chance he will be back in Boston.
13. A.J. Pierzynski
14. Russell Martin
15. Evan Gattis
16. Miguel Montero – before 2013, his BABIP, since 2008, was .331; in 2013 his BABIP was .282; an all-time high ground ball rate contributed to the BABIP decrease. he’s a good bounce back candidate, but with a position so deep I rather have a player with greater upside;
17. Yan Gomes – he’s a great option in two catcher leagues; he won’t get 450 PAs, but he’ll provide solid pop and will not be a batting average sink.
18. Jesus Montero – since he will no longer need to catch anymore there is a chance he can finally focus in on hitting and start to hit his potential that made him the seventh rated prospect in 2012.
19. Ryan Doumit
20. Yasmani Grandal
21. Carlos Ruiz
22. Hector Sanchez – if something were to happen to Buster Posey, Sanchez would be a top 12-13 catcher.
    
23. Wilson Ramos
24. Mike Zunino – he’ll most likely be drafted in 12-team, one catcher leagues because of the prospect hybe, but he looked bad offensively in his brief debut this year.
    
25. J.P. Arencibia

After giving away Game 4 yesterday (with a little help from the umpires) the A’s come back home for a pivotal Game 5. The most intriguing decision A’s Manager has to make is who will start the game. He could go with either Bartolo Colon or Sonny Gray.

Amongst the fans I’ve polled everyone wants Gray to take the hump basically because he’s already mowed down the Tigers lineup. However, no one thinks about HOW he was able to shut down the Tigers. Gray is basically a two-pitch pitcher; he throws a fastball and curveball. He was able to do extremely well because the Tigers hitters never saw him before and had to adjust on the fly. If they see Gray again the results of Game 2 are not likely to repeat. Now, you could say Colon is a one-pitch pitcher and I wouldn’t disagree with you. I would pick Colon not because he is a veteran and a former Cy Young winner (if you can’t tell those arguments are rubbish), but because he has not worked out of the bullpen in years while Gray is two months removed from coming out of the bullpen. It is possible Colon has a special routine that would be difficult for him to get loose in a timely fashion. If Colon struggles then bring in Gray from the bullpen. With the current state of the A’s bullpen, they’re going to have to use Gray regardless if they want to win.

The A’s bullpen is basically Dan Otero, Grant Balfour (BTW, why wasn’t he pitching in the ninth inning last night?) and Sean Doolittle. Ryan Cook has to be hurt because Game 4 was the first time he was used and he looked awful; couldn’t find the broad side of barn. I hope Melvin allows Allberto Callaspo to start at second base instead of Eric Sogard. I love Sogard’s defense, but with Justin Verlander pitching the A’s are going to need offense more than defense.