Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware these fantasy baseball starting pitcher matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top starters

Additional Information: If you remove the first two starts of the year, Cole Hamels has a 3.13 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 22.2 percent strikeout rate and 5.3 walk rate. Last year, he had a 3.05 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 24.9 strikeout rate and 6 percent walk rate. Hamels is easily a top 10-15 pitcher next year. Since the All-Star break, the Philadelphia Phillies are 29th in OPS (the Marlins are 30th). Other than the Atlanta Braves, stream pitchers facing the NL East. Since 2008, Homer Bailey’s ERA has decreased year over year. If Bailey’s ERA stays in the 3.40-3.70 range he’ll most likely be a great value in drafts in 2014.

Backend starters

Additional Information: Since being acquired by the Padres, Eric Stults, in 20 home starts, has a 2.89 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. I keep writing about him every week because he’s still only owned in 67 percent of NFBC leagues. Since being acquired by the Texas Rangers, Matt Garza has pitched fairly well with a 4.44 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. What’s the most promising is he’s reduced his walk rate from 6.8 percent to 5 percent and is throwing more strikes (five percentage points more). Since coming off the DL in May, Ivan Nova has the sixth-lowest ERA (2.47) among starters with at least 10 starts; Jarrord Parker is seventh with 2.48. Despite both pitchers having tough matchups, I would feel confident starting them.

Spot starters

Additional Information: In the last seven starts before going on the DL, Matt Moore looked like he was turning the corner. His walk rate went from 12 percent to 9.3 percent, and his strikeout rate increased five percentage points (to 25.8 percent). That said, Moore’s performance this year has been extremely inconsistent, so fantasy owners in weekly leagues have an extremely tough decision. I own Moore in my most important (weekly) league and I’m rolling the dice with him. Currently, Tyler Chatwood is expected to start on Sunday against the Red, and if his stuff looks sharp, he’s another great streaming candidate with a start in San Diego. Even if the stuff isn’t so sharp, he’ll be able to get away with more mistakes in that ballpark. Since the All-Star break, the Yankees and Mets are 22nd and 23rd, respectively, in the majors in OPS. You can stream pitchers against these offenses.

Proceed with caution

Additional Information: Since the All-Star break, R.A. Dickey has been extremely effective. His walk rate has decreased two percentage points (to 6.6 percent) and his strikeout rate has increased nearly six percentage points (to 22.4 percent). In 2014, Dickey will most likely be one of sleepers in 2014 because I think the market will overlook and undervalue him. A.J. Griffin has a great matchup against the Astros, but Griffin isn’t very good. He leads the majors in home runs allowed (32) despite pitching in of the best pitchers parks and pitcher-friendly divisions. Taijuan Walker made his debut Friday night against the Astros and he got better as the game progressed. His fastball sat 93-94 and touched 97 mph a couple of times; the pitch had good arm-side run that bored in on right-handed hitters. His best secondary pitch was the cutter, which had good arm-side run. He threw a couple of show-me curveballs and change ups. If he can develop some consistency with the curveball and change-up he will be extremely good. With an approximate 160 innings cap, Walker may only have one more start the rest of the year, so fantasy owners should use all their FAAB trying to acquire him.

Avoid

Additional Information: Roy Halladay did not make my top 101 because his stuff looked depressed and hittable; his fastball sat 87-88 mph. Also, his command was off as evidenced by the two hit batsman. It seems like every week I have Jason Vargas in the mid-to-late 80s as a shot-in-the-dark start. In the last two seasons, Vargas has had a game ERA above five if 29 percent of the time. This week with two starts at home, Vargas has an opportunity to provide two quality starts for fantasy owners. Bartolo Colon’s fastball, in his first start off the DL, averaged 89.5 mph and maxed out at 93.4 mph. Prior to going on the DL, he was throwing the fastball with much more velocity, touching 96 mph at times. Colon relies on the fastball more than any starting pitcher in league, and if his fastball doesn’t have the same giddyup, then Colon isn’t startable.

Last night Brett Anderson made his first appearance since coming off the DL with a right ankle sprain. He went three innings and gave up three runs, two hits, zero walks and only one strikeout. My impressions are his stuff looked pretty good, especially the slider, his primary secondary offering. He threw mostly fastballs and sliders and mixed in 2-3 curveballs and changeups as well. The command of the fastball was loose at times, missing up in the zone, but that’s expected since he was on the DL for four months. A’s manager Bob Melvin said the plan is to have Anderson work extensively in the bullpen, but any time fringe 4-5 pitchers like A.J. Griffin, Tommy Milone and Dan Straily are in a rotation means Anderson could enter the rotation at any moment. Side note- Milone was sent down, but he will surely be back up when rosters expand on Sunday.

If I were to speculate what will happen with Anderson the rest of the regular I would say there are scenarios. One is he enters the rotation in two weeks or he becomes the seventh-eighth inning reliever, supplanting Sean Doolittle’s role. Despite having a great rookie season and first half of the season, Doolittle has been extremely hittable since the all-star break with a .275 batting average against, 4.61 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 22.8 percent strikeout rate; his strikeout rate last year was 31.4 percent. My bold prediction is Anderson starts the wild card game if the A’s make the playoffs. If he’s available in your league he’s definitely worth taking a shot on if you can afford the roster spot.

The matchups and statistical data were pulled Saturday morning. Please be aware the matchups are subject to change. The original post can be found at TTFB.

Top Starters

Additional Information: Surprisingly, the Oakland Athletics have the 13th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball; they had the 28th highest last year. I expect Max Scherzer to have a great game, but not the 7.4 strikeouts he’s been averaging this year. Since June, Cliff Lee has a 3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP with a 26 percent strikeout rate and only a 3.9 percent walk rate. Other than his ERA, all his other numbers have been extremely good, and it appears his ERA is a function of bad luck as evidenced with a .315 BABIP and 16.9 percent HR/FB rate.

Backend Starters

Additional Information: At the beginning of the year, I never would’ve thought I would seriously consider ranking Zack Wheeler over Justin Verlander in a two-start week, but I stared at my computer screen for 10 minutes before I eventually went with Verlander. The big question: Is Verlander a top 10 fantasy starting pitcher next year? Probably not. Speaking of Wheeler, I’m streaming almost every pitcher who’s facing teams in the NL East not named the Atlanta Braves, which explains the Jeff Samardzija ranking as well. In his last 10 starts, longtime favorite of mine, Jordan Zimmerman has a 5.53 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 18.4 percent strikeout rate and 7.4 percent walk rate. Though 7.4 percent may not seem a lot, since 2011 he has a 5.0 percent walk rate. I would’ve ranked Zimmerman lower, but a start against the Mets is too good to pass up.

Spot Starters

Additional Information: I’ve said this in previous rankings, but it’s worth mentioning again: If you’re looking for wins, then Scott Feldman, Rick Porcello and Jake Peavy are excellent candidates for fantasy owners because they pitch for high-powered offenses that are likely to earn wins, even though they go six innings and allow three runs. Like last year, Lance Lynn was extremely dominant to begin the season, but has hit the wall. In his first eight starts, he had a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a 26.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.3 percent walk rate. However, in his 18 starts, he has 4.46 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 20.8 percent strikeout rate ad 8.4 percent walk rate. These numbers indicate he’s become more hittable, which he has. If you’re looking for a pitcher to not affect your ratios, then Lynn is not a good start.

Proceed With Caution

Additional Information: Jon Niese has a 2.62 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his last nine starts. Now, the WHIP indicates he’s been lucky with his ERA, but with two starts against the NL East, his run of good luck will continue. Despite the discrepancy in home-road splits for Eric Stults, I still love his matchup in Dodger Stadium, one of the five best pitchers parks in the majors. On Tuesday, Tony Cingrani left his start after only 3.2 innings with a lower back strain. He says he’ll be ready for his next start, but even if he does pitch, you should leave him on your bench. If you don’t believe me, ask how Francisco Liriano’s owners felt about his start in Colorado two weeks ago. Brandon McCarthy has not looked good in his first four starts back from the DL, but if you’re willing to the roll the dice, he could provide two quality starts against two bad teams; this is a total gut call on my part. R.A. Dickey in his last six starts has been very solid with a 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 21 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 walk rate.  Combine that with a start against the below-average Yankees lineup, you could do a lot worse this far into the list.

Avoid

Additional Information: When I’m choosing between pitchers this low on the list, I look for a reasonable strikeout rate, a low walk rate and an above-average matchup. This is why Chris Capuano leads this tier of pitchers. Since July, in eight starts, Edwin Jackson has a 3.40 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 14.1 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate. The walk and strikeout rates indicate Jackson hasn’t been as dominant, which is why he’s this far down. But at the end of the day, he’s pitching in Dodger Stadium and has the ability to miss a ton of bats when everything is working.