Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The third base position is a shallow position that is extremely top heavy with a lot of question marks after the top eight players. In drafts you’re going to want to draft one of these eight players. If you do not you should wait in drafts before filling this position because all the players basically the same.

Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.

1. Miguel Cabrera
2. David Wright – his accounting stats were suppressed by the talent around him, but if some players rebound (Ike Davis and Lucas Duda) and some prospects take steps to reaching their potential (Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores) he could have a big year.
3. Matt Carpenter – see second base rankings.
4. Adrian Beltre – will begin the season at the age of 35; there are no statistical evidence to suggest he could decline, but I’m weary of using a high draft pick on an older player.
5. Evan Longoria – finally eclipsing 600+ at-bats for the first time in his career and provided “meh” numbers; his reputation will probably make him a top 15 pick, which means I will not own him.
6. Ryan Zimmerman – 2014 will most likely be his last year at third base because his inability to throw accurately on a consistent basis; offensively, he’s a very consistent home run hitter who will hit in the middle of a lineup that should have a healthy Bryce Harper.
7. Kyle Seager – a slash line of .260/.338/.426 with 22 home runs may not seem like a lot, but considering he plays half of his games at Safeco those numbers are a true testament of how good of a player he is.
8. Pedro Alvarez – will always be a batting average risk because of his approach at the plate, but he will hit in the middle of the lineup and provide elite power numbers.
9. Manny Machado – Machado had surgery to repair a ligament in his knee and will rehab 4-6 months, which means he could be ready for Spring Training; even if he never got hurt he would only be ranked one spot higher because he doesn’t provide any above average production
10. Josh Donaldson – .301 batting average will not likely be repeated (expect .260-.275), but the power totals are legit.
    
11. Martin Prado – see second base rankings.
    
12. Pablo Sandoval – it’s possible the injury in his left foot could have been the reason for his poor performance; it’s been four years since his breakout season and it looks as though he doesn’t have the #WANT to reach his potential.
    
13. Will Middlebrooks – after being called up in August his slash line was .276/.329/.476 with eight home runs in 158 plate appearances.
    
14. Brett Lawrie – since his breakout 2011 season his slash line (in 978 plate appearances) is .273/.324/.405 with 22 home runs and 22 stolen bases.
    
15. Aramis Ramirez – will 2014 at the age of 36; the analysts who love him will tout how good of a player he is when he’s on the field, but
    
16. Chase Headley – since 2009 these are his home run totals: 12, 11, 4, 31, 13; which number looks more out of place?
    
17. Todd Frazier
18. Matt Dominguez – had a more aggressive approach at the plate towards the end of the season and he saw a substantial uptick in offensive performance.
    
19. Alex Rodriguez – could be higher if he’s able to play on Opening Day
    
20. Nolan Arenado – on the road he had a slash line of .238/.267/.352 compared to .298/.335/.459 at home; he’s a great streaming option if you only play him at home.
    
21. Mike Olt – Olt has been dealing with vision problems for at least a year and his performance has suffered; he was taking eye drops, which helped, but he had to stop taking them; if he can correct his vision problems he could be an excellent deep sleeper.
    
22. David Freese
23. Trevor Plouffe
24. Alberto Callaspo
25. Mike Moustakas – in 1,493 plate appearances he has a slash line of .244/.296/.385; the upside of a first division all-star is probably not there anymore.
    
26. Lonnie Chisenhall
27. Chris Johnson – he will not have a .394 BABIP again and therefore, will not hit .321 batting average again.

Below are my initial shortstop rankings for 2014. This is an extremely risky position with no “sure things.” In general this is the position where you should get your speed when building your team. If, during your draft you get speed from other positions you could get power shortstops (i.e. J.J. Hardy in the 19th round in 12 team league) at an substantial discount.

Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.

1. Troy Tulowitzki – has only averaged 121 games since 2007 and only has eclipsed 144 games once in his career.
   
2. Ian Desmond – the safest player on the entire list; limited upside, but provides 20/20 with 25/25 upside.
3. Hanley Ramirez – will he have a .363 BABIP and 21.7% HR/FB rate again?; if he can stay healthy he has the skill set that could him the best fantasy shortstop.
   
4. Everth Cabrera – was ninth in the majors in stolen bases despite only playing in 95 games; if he plays a full year he could win you a category; reduced his strikeout rate nearly ten percentage points compared to last year, which makes his .283 batting average repeatable.
5. Jose Reyes – only ten stolen bases after returning from the DL with a gruesome injury; at the age of 30, will he return to 30+ stolen bases?; I will not own him on any team.
   
6. Jean Segura – after a great first two months of the season, Segura had a slash line of .261/.292/.354 with four home runs and 29 stolen bases (11 caught stealing); fantasy owners should expect this type of output next year, but will most likely go much higher than he should.
   
7. J.J. Hardy – very consistent power source
   
8. Andrelton Simmons – I didn’t see 17 home run potential because he never showed it in the minors, but is repeatable; has the speed for 15-25 stolen bases if given the green light.
   
9. Starlin Castro – unforgettable year that is most likely an outlier in an excellent career; don’t forget he’s still only 23 years old.
   
10. Jonathan Villar – if he’s the Astros starting shortstop Opening Day, he could steal 40+ bases.
    
11. Brad Miller – I may be too aggressive on Miller, but he has 15/15 upside.
    
12. Ben Zobrist – see second base rankings.
    
13. Elvis Andrus – his stolen base totals for his career are: 33, 32, 37, 21 and 42; looks safe for 30+ stolen bases that provides nothing else.
    
14. Asdrubal Cabrera – just turned 27, but he looked like 30 year old on the field; his age suggests he could rebound, but it’s looking more like his 2011 season is the outlier.
    
15. Jed Lowrie – see second base rankings.
    
16. Erick Aybar
    
17. Alexei Ramirez – one of the worst approaches in the game and will most likely not get 30 stolen bases again because he will not be on-base enough to get those opportunities.
    
18. Jordy Mercer – if he’s the Opening Day starter for the Pirates, Mercer is a top 11-13 shortstop.
    
19. Stephen Drew
20. Jimmy Rollins – only provided six home runs due to a low HR/FR rate (3.0%); however, the power upside is 10-13 home runs with 15-20 stolen bases.
    
21. Jhonny Peralta
22. Brandon Crawford
23. Alcides Escobar – with a .259 OBP I have no idea why Ned Yost batted him second in the lineup; I expect a rebound to a .290 OBP which should provide more stolen bases (25-30)
    
24. Adeiny Hechavarria
25. Yunel Escobar
26. Jose Iglesias – will never finish a season with a batting average greater than .303 again
    
27. Zack Cozart

Below are my initial second base rankings for 2014. This is an extremely top heavy position with a lot of depth. In most mixed leagues after the first four players are off the board, I recommend waiting to fill this position.

Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.

1. Robinson Cano – I bet he stays a Yankee and if he does, he’s a top 4-6 player overall.
   
2. Jason Kipnis – the .284 batting average seems flukey; fantasy owners should expect a .260-.270;
   
3. Matt Carpenter – led the majors in runs with 126, which is 17 more than the next player (Mike Trout); with Kolten Wong ready to play at second base at the major league level, I wouldn’t be surprised if Carpenter is moved to third base.
   
4. Dustin Pedroia
5. Daniel Murphy – will most likely be underrated in drafts again, but he will be a tremendous value if he slips beyond the ninth second baseman taken.
   
6. Martin Prado – after a slow start Prado had a .324/.374/.490 slash line after the all star break.
   
7. Jose Altuve – another consistent year for Altuve; could see an increase in his value if the Astros bring up some of their top prospects (Jonathan Singleton and George Springer)
   
8. Brian Dozier – strikes out too often, which means he’ll be a batting average risk, but has 20/20 upside.
   
9. Jedd Gyorko – other than Cano, Gyorko surprisingly had the most home runs with 23; with a 15.9% HR/FB rate the power should decrease to the 15-18 range.
   
10. Aaron Hill – if he’s healthy and plays a full year, you have a top five second baseman.
    
11. Chase Utley – he may be an injury risk, but just because he’ll only play 80-100 games doesn’t mean he does not have value; remember you want to calculate his expected output plus the output of a replacement level player.
    
12. Ian Kinsler – slugging percentage and isolated power have decreased year over year for the three years and will be 32 at the end of next season.
    
13. Ben Zobrist – got a little unlucky with the home runs, but expecting any more than 15 is crazy; stolen base totals have decreased year over year for four years.
    
14. Neil Walker – incredibly consistent player with limited upside; high floor and low ceiling.
    
15. Brandon Phillips – see Ian Kinsler
    
16. Kolten Wong – if he’s the starting second baseman for the Cardinals, he’s a top 6-7 second baseman.
    
17. Jed Lowrie – 2013 may have been the last year as a shortstop and will most likely play most of the year at second base; was third in the majors doubles.
    
18. Anthony Rendon – injury risk, but
    
19. DJ LeMahieu – has dramatic home-road splits.
    
20. Nick Franklin
21. Jurickson Profar – if Ian Kinsler does not want to move to first base, Profar will have no fantasy value because he will not have enough at-bats to be fantasy relevant.
    
22. Omar Infante
23. Dustin Ackley – after returning from his triple-a demotion he had a slash line of .285/.354/.404.
    
24. Marco Scutaro – only provides batting average.
    
25. Rickie Weeks