Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

This year I participated in two leagues. The draft took place on April 1 at 9pm EST. In terms of the player commentary, there are some similarities in the players I drafted. I didn’t want to repeat myself so I encourage you to see my write-up on my other draft.

League Background

This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.

Overall Thoughts

This team has a lot of similarity to my other team. I am a little reliant on Guardians with Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes and I’m banking on Oneil Cruz coming up to the Majors in a couple of weeks. My starting pitcher staff isn’t quite as deep as my other team but I think I’ll end up in the middle of the pack which is all I need to win the league.

Below are my draft picks:

Jose Ramirez was my second rated hitter so I got a slight discount. He’ll play the year at the age of 29 so I think the stolen bases decreases; the question is how much. I projected 20 but I wouldn’t be surprised if he only steals 10-15.

I’ve drafted Starling Marte for seemingly for the past 4-5 seasons. He’s always been undervalued except for this year. Marte probably leads off or bats second and should score 100 runs with 25-30 stolen bases.

Tyler O’Neill brings a lot of raw power and the ability to steal 10-20 bases which is exceptionally rare. Among qualified hitters he had the 8^th hardest hard hit rate. He got lucky with the batting average last year; I only projected a .260 average but his bat is good enough that he should hit 3^rd or 4^th all year and be a really good statistical accumulator.

Joran Romano was the best closer available.

I picked Willy Adames off waivers for free last season. I think leaving Tampa and being able to see the ball was a huge difference for his offensive production after being traded. The batting average will probably be in the .250s but he should provide production in every category.

Joey Votto made a lot of hard contact last year. In fact he was 6^th in all of baseball last year. Votto spoke about a change in his approach last year and the advanced metrics show it. I projected 31 home runs but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits a career high this year. The new power comes at the expense of the batting average; I think he’s a .250 hitter.

I selected Oneil Cruz based on the hope he’s in the Majors in 2-4 weeks. Cruz already made it to the Majors and if he played a full year he’s a potential 30/30 candidate. The Pirates just signed Ke’Bryan Hayes for $70 million; why not bring up Cruz and showcase both players to their fanbase. Kevin Newman, the current shortstop, is a little bit above replacement level. Barring injury I don’t know why Cruz is still in the minors on May 1.

I drafted Alex Verdugo primarily for his batting average. He does a little bit of everything else which means if he doesn’t hit for average I may have overpaid.

John Means benefits the most with the fences further out left field.

Luis Urias is currently injured but the reports are he should only miss 1-2 weeks. I drafted Urias and Frazier back-to-back as placeholders for Oneil Cruz. My thinking is Frazier scores a lot of runs for the first three weeks and then Urias is healthy and hits for power; and the combination of both players is similar to what Cruz would have provided…in theory.

Adam Frazier is a placeholder until Oneil Cruz gets called up. Frazier should bat leadoff to begin the season and if he does I think he can score 100 runs. The batting average regresses but he should hit safely in the .270s with 5-10 stolen bases.

I drafted Josh Lowe as a late round lottery pick. My thesis was if Kevin Kiermaier gets hurt, Lowe would be the first player called up. Well, it turns out Austin Meadows got traded to Detroit which means Lowe got the call up. I think Lowe could steal 20-30 bases if he played every day. The fact he batted 7^th against a lefty encourages me that he will play most days.

I looked at Eno Sarris’ rankings and threw a dart at Tylor Megill.

Marco Gonzales and Jake Odorizzi were both dropped three days later for Mitch Keller and Madison Bumgarner. They were dropped because Bumgarner had a better week one matchup and he had a velocity uptick in the spring. Keller was a lottery ticket pickup; if he reaches his supreme ceiling, which is highly unlikely, he’s a top 10 starting pitcher. If Gonzales and Odorizzi reach their ceilings they’re top 30 starting pitchers. Lastly, I’ll be able to find pitchers like Odorizzi and Gonzales on waivers all year.

This year I participated in two leagues. This draft took place on April 4 at 8pm EST.

League Background

This is a 12-team mixed NFBC draft. The roster consists of 14 hitters, nine pitchers and seven bench players. You set your pitchers once a week; hitters are set twice a week; waivers occur once a week.

Overall Thoughts

I did this draft second and I like this team much more, which probably means this team will do poorly and the other will be better. The biggest weakness are the relivers especially if Matt Barnes gets/is hurt. I think I’ll easily have the best offense in the league.

Below are my draft picks:

Bryce Harper was 6^th rated hitter overall so I got a little discount. The biggest downside for Harper is maybe only steals a couple of bags instead of the 12 I projected. He plays in a great ballpark and the offense is vastly better than last year. If he repeats last year’s ability in this revamped lineup he could drive in 120-plus RBIs.

Salvador Perez was my 5^th hitter overall simply because of the scarcity of being in a two-catcher format. For some reason the Market has caught on to the vast difference between Perez and the 24^th best catcher Kyle Higashioka. The last catcher in this format is considerably worse than the last player at any other position. Perez was lucky with the home runs and the batting average. His contact rates suggests he’ll hit in the .240’s; I projected him for a .245 average with 37 home runs and 100 RBI. With Bobby Witt in the lineup and the fact the Royals may DH Perez half the time means he should play every day which is rare for catchers. Most importantly, the rest at DH means there’s a bigger chance the offense doesn’t tail off in the second half of the season.

Cedric Mullins is a 20/20 player who should score close to 100 runs. The fences in left field at his home ballpark have gone back but that shouldn’t really effect his power output that much. By my rough estimates he’ll lose about two home runs.

Daulton Varsho should play every day in the outfield and could steal 10-15 bags with 15 home runs. Getting steals at catcher is extremely rare. I actually wanted Xander Bogaerts with this selection but I got antsy and decided I wanted to lock in the steals from Varsho and as you can already tell I got Bogaerts with my next pick so it wall worked out in the end. By getting 10-15 steals from my catcher position allowed me more flexibility in the draft. Now someone who doesn’t steal, like Jesse Winker, becomes more valuable. I projected 16 home runs, 11 stolen bases, a .250 average with 85 runs. I assumed he would bat leadoff against righties.

Xander Bogaerts was my 16^th rated hitter. He’s the classic accumulator type of player; I expect 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored. The power and stolen bases are not overwhelming but he will hit in the .290s which allows more batting average freedom during the draft.

Craig Kimbrell comes with some risk because in the past he’s totally lost his control and therefore can be very hittable. Also, he may only get 60 innings pitched which means he only gets 85-90% of the save chances. However, with his track record and contract he should have a long leash if he hits roadblocks during the season. The Dodgers could be the best team in baseball so if only gets 85% of the saves he should get 30-35 saves with a lot of strikeouts.

I think teams this year underrated stolen bases. Jazz Chisholm was my 58^th rated hitter but I got him with the 81^st pick. What’s good about getting a Bogaerts is even with Chisholm hitting in the .240s, it doesn’t hurt as much because Bogaerts picks up the slack. I think Chisholm is a 20/20 player again; I thought he would hit in the top of the lineup but in the first game of the year he batted ninth. He hits in the bottom third all year then I didn’t make a profit on this draft pick.

Alex Bregman at this price point is either a huge profit or a huge loss. If he plays a full year there’s no way he’s the 88^th best player. Bregman struggled last season dur to wrist issues and it looks he’s recovered. He’s a free agent at the end of the year so he has every incentive to do well this year. Bregman was my 24^th rated hitter overall. Like Bogaerts, Bregman is another accumulator but he’ll hit in the .270s instead of the .290s.

Below are my projections for Pete Alonso and Franmil Reyes; I had Alonso rated 48^th and Reyes 57^th. Winning drafts is all about paying a discount. Alonso was being drafted at fair value but Reyes was a big discount. Reyes doesn’t have a position so he “clogs” your utility spot which can be annoying at times but there shouldn’t be that big of a discount for similar output.

Pablo Lopez was my 22^nd rated starting pitcher. I honestly don’t have much to add about pitchers in general. I regress their advanced metrics based on their previous statistics and I use Eno Sarris’ rankings to come up with my projections.

I think Matt Barnes is relatively safe at his price point. On the first game of the year Barnes wasn’t available to pitch due to back issues and the Red Sox promptly blew a save chance. If Barnes can play a full year I think he can have 25 saves.

Blake Snell was drafted for the strikeouts and how he looked at the end of last season. I think if you take the average of Snell and Kyle Hendricks I get two top 40 pitchers at a big discount.

Andrew Benintendi is going to bat 3^rd all year in a pretty good lineup and should provide statistics in all five categories. Could he hit .280 with 15 home runs, 90 RBI and 15 steals? I think its certainly reasonable.

I like the ballpark change for Sonny Gray.

Nate Lowe is another all around contributor. A lot of fantasy experts think Lowe can hit for more power. From my analysis I don’t think its possible; I projected 22 home runs. He should in the middle of the order and steal 5-10 bags.

Jean Segura is another all-around contributor…are you seeing a trend so far? Even though he’ll hit 6^th or 7^th I think the offense is good enough he can drive in 70 and score 70 runs. Also, if there’s an injury to one of the Phillies best hitters it’s possible Segura leads off.

I wasn’t buying the Ke’Bryan Hayes hype last season. The fact he vastly under performed his ADP probably made him a bargain this year. I projected 14 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a .270 average. The Pirates are really bad but I have to assume O’Neil Cruz gets called up in a couple of weeks and if that happens the biggest benefactor is Hayes. I don’t understand the Pirates giving Hayes all that money; I think he’s just an average regular but I hope I am wrong.

I can’t believe Jesse Winker fell to this far in the draft. He probably only plays half the time against lefties because he hasn’t shown the ability to hit lefties and the change of ballpark hurts his value. However, the hate went too far. He went seven picks ahead of Lane Thomas. I like Thomas but Winker was an MVP candidate last year. I projected a .279 average with 22 home runs and 85/85 runs and RBI.

Max Kepler was selected because I wanted someone with power to hit mid-20s home runs and who could steal 10 bags.

Jon Gray was selected because his pedigree and the change of ballpark. It’s very possible he’s a top 30 starting pitcher or this year’s Andrew Heaney.

The Tony Gonsolin selection was based on his ratios and the fact he’s starting for the Dodgers (i.e. a higher probability of getting wins).

If Brandon Nimmo can stay healthy he’s this year Mitch Haniger; a player with a lot of talent who no one wanted but if he stayed healthy would be very good.

Is it possible Kevin Smith goes 20/20 and is the AL Rookie of the year? Smith is going to play every day and his defense is good enough so he won’t be a liability. If Smith hits he could be bat third on that team.

I selected Drew Rasmussen based on his raw abilities. He may only throw 130 innings but I think those innings will be very good.

The selection of Mitch Keller was simply to see what he can do. The raw stuff has always been there. If the control improves a little he’s a top 50ish starter; I also wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the closer next year. Keller is a lottery ticket.

In 2019 Paul DeJong hit 30 homers and stole 9 bags. He’s only 28 years old and I don’t think he’s done. If he is, I didn’t pay a lot for him.

I wrote about Kyle Hendricks in the Blake Snell section. Hendricks won’t get that many strikeouts but he should have good ratios which should counterbalance Snell’s bad ratios. Also, the Cubs should be an average team which means Hendricks may get 12-13 wins.

Why does the Market dislike Garrett Cooper? He is hitting in the top of a good lineup and has a career .282 batting average with a .354 OBP. Sure, he may only hit 15-20 home runs but as a 6^th outfielder you can do a lot worse. I get 2004 Jeff Conine vibes from Cooper.

Dinelson Lamet with the shortened week against a bad Diamondbacks team I thought it was possible he gets a win or two. He’s another player that probably gets cut after the first weekend.

I selected Madison Bumgarner because he was starting week one and he had a pretty good matchup. If the advanced statistics say he’s not looking good then I will cut him.