Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Below is part one (of three) of my initial starting pitcher rankings for 2014. Before I started the list I believed pitching would be the deepest position in fantasy, but that idea quickly evaporated when I was debating between Patrick Corbin, C. J. Wilson, Jeff Samardzija and Derek Holland for 30th overall. With strikeout rates higher than ever it’s important to have acceptable statistical rates. In general, pitchers must have at least a 21% strikeout to be draftable.

Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.

1. Clayton Kershaw – had Kershaw number one in my rankings last year; kudos to me
2. Yu Darvish – led majors in strikeouts; 37 more than the next pitcher (Max Scherzer)
   
3. Adam Wainwright – the extra 20 playoff innings or so could be concerning, but that’s a minor qwibble.
   
4. Stephen Strasburg – if you remove the win total, he’s easily a top five pitcher.
   
5. Cliff Lee – I’m not a fan of older pitchers, especially with a lot mileage, but at the age of 35, he shows no signs of slowing down.
   
6. Max Scherzer – got lucky with the win column and run support, but will still provide elite level peripherals.
   
7. Madison Bumgarner – will benefit in the long term from not participating in the playoffs; he just turned 24 in August and has room to get even better.
   
8. Cole Hamels – if you remove the first three starts of the year he has a 3.28 ERA, 1.12 WHIP with a 23% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate.
   
9. Chris Sale – if the White Sox were even a middle of the road team, Sale could be a top five starting pitcher; the White Sox are bad defensively and offensively; the bullpen is bad
   
10. Felix Hernandez – admit I’m probably too low on him, but the second half performance has me concerned.
    
11. Homer Bailey – I loved Bailey last year and I believe he takes another step forward.
    
12. David Price – want to see which team he’s traded to before coming up with a final opinion.
    
13. Shelby Miller – faded in the second half of the year (most likely due to the most innings he’s thrown in his professional career), but the elite skill set is still there.
    
14. Jose Fernandez – elite skill set, but how many wins will he get: 10? 11?
    
15. Mike Minor – reduced his walk rate by two percentage points (5.6%) and increased the strikeout rate three percentage points (22.1%).
    
16. Zack Greinke – strikeout rate has decreased year over year for three straight years
    
17. Mat Latos – could have pitched better if did not have bone chips in his elbow … possibly for months.
    
18. Justin Verlander – his value may increase due to the elite level performance in the playoffs and in September; I honestly don’t know how to rank him, but I probably will not own him.
    
19. Gio Gonzalez – regressed from his 2012 season; will most likely be prone to 2-4 blowup starts a year, but provides nearly 200 strikeouts.
    
20. Hisashi Iwakuma – probably have him too low as I’m overrating the team he plays on and the likelihood his win total could be depressed.
    
21. Gerrit Cole – in his last ten starts (in the regular season) he had a 2.92 ERA, 1.20 WHIP with a 25.6% strikeout rate; I’ll be targeting Cole in every draft.
    
22. Julio Teheran – got even better as the season progressed; he plays in an extremely easy division with a great offense.
    
23. Alex Cobb – pitches in a great pitcher’s park and one of the best defenses in the majors.
    
24. Jordan Zimmermann – with strikeouts at all time highs, Zimmerman is a great value if he’s paired with a Darvish or Scherzer, but if not, your team will have difficulty competing in strikeouts.
    
25. Matt Cain – velocity ticked up towards the end of the year; all the peripherals were the same as last year except his HR/FB rate increased nearly 2.5 percentage points (10.8%)
    
26. A. J. Burnett – reserve right to change ranking after he finds a team.
    
27. James Shields – should be a trade candidate, but highly unlikely considering what the Royals gave away to get him.
    
28. Anibal Sanchez – pitched extremely well, but there’s effort in his delivery and it looks as though he’s pitching through pain.
    
29. Michael Wacha – may not begin the year in the majors, but his performance in his brief time in the majors and the playoffs show he’s legit.
    
30. C. J. Wilson – extremely consistent good pitcher; reduced his walk rate one percentage point; if the bullpen improves and the offense can stay healthy, he could win more games
    
31. Derek Holland – all the ingredients are there for breakthrough season; has the raw stuff, pitches on a good team and has nearly 800 innings pitched in the majors.
    
32. Jeff Samardzija – pitched better than his baseball card stats would indicate as evidenced by a FIP of 3.77 and xFIP of 3.45.
    
33. Patrick Corbin – highly underrated him in the preseason, but improved his command and control and made himself a really good pitcher.
    
34. Danny Salazar – injury risk, but with a nearly 31% strikeout rate, he has the ability to have as many strikeouts as Darvish if he can make 30 starts.
    

Time for part two.

Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.

31. Alfonso Soriano – probably will not put up a season like 2013, but he should be able to hit 20-25 home runs with 5-10 stolen bases.
32. Alex Rios – has a $13.5M team option for 2014, which the Rangers are more likely to pickup; I’ve been burned by the Jekyll and Hyde routine in the past
33. Carlos Beltran – surely will no longer play in St. Louis next year; Rangers make a lot of sense for a location in 2014.
34. Josh Reddick – dealt with a wrist injury for most of the year back in April; if he;s fully healthy to begin the year, he could be a great sleeper.
35. Nick Swisher – see first base rankings.
36. Michael Cuddyer – see first base rankings.
37. Mark Trumbo – extremely consistent in terms of the player he is
38. Josh Hamilton – after the all-star break had a slash line of .284/.341/.460; it’s possible he could be a draft value if he falls enough; the MVP output is no longer in the cards though as he strikes out and swings and misses too often.
39. Brandon Moss – see first base rankings.
40. Ben Revere – missed a lot of time due to a broken foot, but he still has the ability to steal 40+ bases.
41. Adam Eaton
42. Carl Crawford
43. Coco Crisp – stolen base total (21) was the lowest its been since 2009, but hit the most home runs in his career (22); at the age of 34 is it possible for him to return to the 39+ stolen base potential?
44. Brett Gardner
45. Alejandro De Aza – came close to being a 20/20 player, but only drove in 62 runners; White Sox hitters will have depressed RBI and Run totals because their offense is so bad.
46. Chris Carter – see first base rankings.
47. Desmond Jennings – has yet to have a batting average greater than a .259 batting average, 14 home runs and 8 stolen bases; if his name was Cameron Maybin or some other less heralded prospect he wouldn’t come close to a top 30 ranking.
48. Nelson Cruz – I’m waiting judgement on his value until he lands on a team.
49. Michael Brantley – will be 27 next season; has the upside to be a 20/20 player if everything rolls right.
50. Shane Victorino – most of his fantasy value came from the benefit of playing in Boston; on the road his slash line was .266/.337/.418.
51. Norichika Aoki – quality player, whose fantasy value was suppressed by only driving in 37 runners, which is extremely low for a player who played every day with a .355 OBP.
52. Leonys Martin – will most likely get everyday at-bats and will have a greater opportunity for even more stolen bases.
53. Rajai Davis – he’s never drafted in leagues and always finds a way to 40+ stolen bases.
54. Martin Prado
55. Christian Yelich – did fairly well in a small sample size and has the raw tools to be a first division player, but his .287 batting average benefited from a .380 BABIP and 13.8% HR/FB rate.
56. Ben Zobrist
57. Josh Willingham – wouldn’t be surprised if he lands on some non-contending club so they could trade Willingham for prospects if his bat returns to form.
58. Nate Schierholtz
59. Nate McLouth – really struggled after a great start to the season; at 59, I think the ranking is too high already
60. Michael Bourn – for some reason stopped stealing bases; it’s possible he was dealing with a poor hamstring.

Outfield is an extremely shallow position. In drafts owners should try to acquire three of the top 20-25 outfielders for their teams because if a team doesn’t teams will have the likes of Will Venable as their second outfielder.

Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.

1. Mike Trout
2. Adam Jones – after Trout, is the safest player on this list in terms of team around him and skill set.
   
3. Andrew McCutchen – extremely safe for 20/20, but the 31 home runs in 2012 seems to be an outlier; fantasy owners should expect 25 home runs.
   
4. Carlos Gomez – has 30/40 upside, but is a .250-.260 hitter rather than a .284 hitter.
   
5. Carlos Gonzalez – has never played more than 145 games in the majors; has averaged 130 games since 2010.
   
6. Allen Craig – see first base rankings.
   
7. Bryce Harper – given the shallowness of this position Harper shouldn’t be this high, but his upside is too good pass up; I’m giving him a mulligan due the injuries; before running into the wall in Los Angeles his slash line was .303/.400/.622; after the injury .262/.356/.433.
   
8. Ryan Braun – will be one the most polarizing players in drafts; skill set seemed in tact, but only four stolen bases leads me to believe he may only steal 15-20 bases instead of 30+.
   
9. Jacoby Ellsbury – ranking may be too high, but I’m assuming he stays in Boston.
   
10. Jay Bruce – three straight years with 30+ home runs.
    
11. Hunter Pence – he may look uncordinated and a little goofy, but his performance is legit; he probably will not age well and will eventually be the new Aaron Rowand in 2016.
    
12. Giancarlo Stanton – with a better supporting cast around him next year,
    
13. Matt Kemp – will either finish the year as a top 8 eight player or top 50 player; I probably will not own Kemp
    
14. Jason Heyward – just turned 24 years old and will most likely hit in the middle of the Braves lineup; if he played a full season he would have finished the year with 21.27 home runs and four stolen bases.
15. Jose Bautista – season was cut short due to a left hip bone bruise, but is legitimate candidate to lead the majors in home runs if he plays a full season.
    
16. Justin Upton – his draft day value will most likely be driven by the upside of his prospect status years ago, but his numbers say he’s a good player, not a great player.
    
17. Matt Holliday – will turn 34 in January and shows no signs of slowing down.
    
18. Alex Gordon – high floor, low upside player; better than the .265 average suggests.
    
19. Domonic Brown – 44% of Brown’s home runs occurred in 12 games; if you remove those 12 games he only had 15 home runs with a slash line of .251/.333/.407.
    
20. Wil Myers – probably too high on him and overrating the performance he’s shown in a small sample size.
    
21. Austin Jackson – will most likely be a 10/10 player, but if he plays a full season, could lead the league in runs scored.
    
22. Jayson Werth – two straight years with .300+ batting averages and .356+ BABIPs, but will turn 35 in May.
    
23. Shin-Soo Choo – if Choo stays on the Reds, he‘s a top 10-13 outfielder.
    
24. Yoenis Cespedes – the scouting report from Jason Parks at Baseball Prospectus changed how I looked at Cespedes’ upside.
    
25. Starling Marte – probably is more of a .265-.270 hitter than a .280 hitter, but the speed is legit.
    
26. Curtis Granderson – home runs will decrease dramatically if he leaves the friendly confines of New York.
    
27. B.J. Upton – similar to Matt Kemp in that he will either dramatically outperform or under perform his draft day value; the more shallow the league, the higher he should go in drafts.
    
28. Yasiel Puig – after his hot start in June, Puig came back down to Earth with a slash line of .278/.366/.470; hype surrounding him will likely make him a top ten outfielder, which means I will not own him.
    
29. Dexter Fowler – career .241 hitter on the road; should be platooned when he is on the road.
    
30. Will Venable – platoon player who will (should) not play against left handed pitching, which thereby decreases Venable’s value in head-to-head leagues.