Below is part one (of three) of my initial starting pitcher rankings for 2014. Before I started the list I believed pitching would be the deepest position in fantasy, but that idea quickly evaporated when I was debating between Patrick Corbin, C. J. Wilson, Jeff Samardzija and Derek Holland for 30th overall. With strikeout rates higher than ever it’s important to have acceptable statistical rates. In general, pitchers must have at least a 21% strikeout to be draftable.
Previous rankings: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop Outfield part one and part two, Pitchers part one, part two, and part three.
- Clayton Kershaw – had Kershaw number one in my rankings last year; kudos to me
- Yu Darvish – led majors in strikeouts; 37 more than the next pitcher (Max Scherzer)
- Adam Wainwright – the extra 20 playoff innings or so could be concerning, but that’s a minor qwibble.
- Stephen Strasburg – if you remove the win total, he’s easily a top five pitcher.
- Cliff Lee – I’m not a fan of older pitchers, especially with a lot mileage, but at the age of 35, he shows no signs of slowing down.
- Max Scherzer – got lucky with the win column and run support, but will still provide elite level peripherals.
- Madison Bumgarner – will benefit in the long term from not participating in the playoffs; he just turned 24 in August and has room to get even better.
- Cole Hamels – if you remove the first three starts of the year he has a 3.28 ERA, 1.12 WHIP with a 23% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate.
- Chris Sale – if the White Sox were even a middle of the road team, Sale could be a top five starting pitcher; the White Sox are bad defensively and offensively; the bullpen is bad
- Felix Hernandez – admit I’m probably too low on him, but the second half performance has me concerned.
- Homer Bailey – I loved Bailey last year and I believe he takes another step forward.
- David Price – want to see which team he’s traded to before coming up with a final opinion.
- Shelby Miller – faded in the second half of the year (most likely due to the most innings he’s thrown in his professional career), but the elite skill set is still there.
- Jose Fernandez – elite skill set, but how many wins will he get: 10? 11?
- Mike Minor – reduced his walk rate by two percentage points (5.6%) and increased the strikeout rate three percentage points (22.1%).
- Zack Greinke – strikeout rate has decreased year over year for three straight years
- Mat Latos – could have pitched better if did not have bone chips in his elbow … possibly for months.
- Justin Verlander – his value may increase due to the elite level performance in the playoffs and in September; I honestly don’t know how to rank him, but I probably will not own him.
- Gio Gonzalez – regressed from his 2012 season; will most likely be prone to 2-4 blowup starts a year, but provides nearly 200 strikeouts.
- Hisashi Iwakuma – probably have him too low as I’m overrating the team he plays on and the likelihood his win total could be depressed.
- Gerrit Cole – in his last ten starts (in the regular season) he had a 2.92 ERA, 1.20 WHIP with a 25.6% strikeout rate; I’ll be targeting Cole in every draft.
- Julio Teheran – got even better as the season progressed; he plays in an extremely easy division with a great offense.
- Alex Cobb – pitches in a great pitcher’s park and one of the best defenses in the majors.
- Jordan Zimmermann – with strikeouts at all time highs, Zimmerman is a great value if he’s paired with a Darvish or Scherzer, but if not, your team will have difficulty competing in strikeouts.
- Matt Cain – velocity ticked up towards the end of the year; all the peripherals were the same as last year except his HR/FB rate increased nearly 2.5 percentage points (10.8%)
- A. J. Burnett – reserve right to change ranking after he finds a team.
- James Shields – should be a trade candidate, but highly unlikely considering what the Royals gave away to get him.
- Anibal Sanchez – pitched extremely well, but there’s effort in his delivery and it looks as though he’s pitching through pain.
- Michael Wacha – may not begin the year in the majors, but his performance in his brief time in the majors and the playoffs show he’s legit.
- C. J. Wilson – extremely consistent good pitcher; reduced his walk rate one percentage point; if the bullpen improves and the offense can stay healthy, he could win more games
- Derek Holland – all the ingredients are there for breakthrough season; has the raw stuff, pitches on a good team and has nearly 800 innings pitched in the majors.
- Jeff Samardzija – pitched better than his baseball card stats would indicate as evidenced by a FIP of 3.77 and xFIP of 3.45.
- Patrick Corbin – highly underrated him in the preseason, but improved his command and control and made himself a really good pitcher.
- Danny Salazar – injury risk, but with a nearly 31% strikeout rate, he has the ability to have as many strikeouts as Darvish if he can make 30 starts.
