Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

Gray is going to be one of the most hyped sleepers going into drafts, but I’m not buying the hype. First of all, his ultimate role is still in question. Is he a starter or a reliever? As an A’s fan I’ve seen Gray pitch a lot in the majors and triple-a and he currently doesn’t have the arsenal to throw 200-plus innings year over year. He’s a two-pitch pitcher which makes him more hittable the second time a team sees him. For example, look at the swings made in game two of the ALDS and compare the swings to game five. You’ll see they were not fooled as much and Gray’s pitches found more barrels. There’s a question about his size; standing at 5’11 he lacks the prototypical size and body to hold up to a starters workload; he receives a lot of comps to Tim Hudson because both of the similar stature and the immediate success they earned in the majors.

In terms of his 2013 performance you couldn’t ask for a better fantasy combination. He strikes out a lot of batters, generates a lot of ground balls, plays in one of the best pitcher’s ballparks and behind one of the best defenses in the majors that recently got better with the additions of Craig Gentry (who I believe will be more than a platoon hitter) and Nick Punto. That said, I’m still not sold. I bet Gray has a great first half and falls off afterward; that said if the changeup develops then he can be a monster. If the changeup doesn’t develop he will be a great set-up man.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

What happened to Cain last year? He had one of the weirdest years in recent memory. He pitched really well in most of the games he pitched; 20 of his 30 starts were quality starts, which tied him for 30th among all starting pitchers. However, despite pitching well in the majority of his starts, it seemed as though he was more susceptible to the blowup start (outings where a pitcher gives up five or more earned runs). In 266 career starts Cain has 42 blowup starts, which is a little less than 16 percent of his starts. Last year he had five blowup starts, which was a little less than 17 percent of his starts so he didn’t have a vastly larger number of blowup starts. The table below provides the percent of blowup starts as well as his ERA for all of his blowup starts. The data suggests there are two trends. First, the percentage of blowup starts are increasing and last year his blowup starts were extremely brutal in terms of ERA. The cause for the increase of blowup starts could be due to (or a mix of) bad luck, decreased quality of his stuff or the elbow fragments in his right elbow that could have caused discomfort.

It is also worth noting the first half and second half splits. The differences that jump out at me are the LOB and HR/FB, but it’s hard to pin all of his performance on those two stats alone; during the second half of the season he faced teams with an overall winning percentage of 48 percent, which also could have inflated his stats.

I wasn’t buying Cain in last year’s guide because I never like pitchers who continue to work up in the zone despite a velocity decline. Last year his velocity was the same as the past two seasons, but he still likes to throw the ball up in the zone; based on my calculations he threw it in that location 35 percent of the time, which is only four percentage points less than the 2008-09 seasons. I believe Cain got unlucky with the number of runs he allowed in his blowup starts and there should be some regression.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.

During the 2010 season Salazar had a TJ surgery. After the 2011 season, the Indians placed him on their 40-man roster even though he only made 15 starts the previous two seasons because of the TJ surgery and still haven’t gone beyond Single-A.

After the surgery, “According to multiple reports, post-surgery, Salazar actually has added some life on his fastball. Instead of just generally touching the mid-90s, he’s now hitting 98 and consistently reaching 94-96. This isn’t all that uncommon, as Jon actually referenced an article yesterday about relievers and their revitalization following a second UCL reconstruction.” (Source: Jacob Rosen). His fastball is extremely electric and it’s no surprise how aggressive he is when he throws it, primarily up in the zone (image below courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net).

Combine that information with two above average secondary offerings you begin to the makings of a four category stud and a top 10-15 fantasy pitcher (in terms of ultimate ceiling). There are questions if he can hold up to a starters workload, but he pitched 145 innings between the majors and minors last year and showed no signs of fatigue. Also with the pending loss Ubaldo Jimenez the Indians are going to give Salazar every opportunity to be successful as a starter. That said, if he doesn’t work out as a starter he can be the best closer in baseball. Some fantasy owners may have concerns about the aggressiveness with the fastball or the injury history, but Salazar’s ceiling is too high to pass up. According to Tristan H. Cockcroft’s initial rankings at ESPN, he has him ranked 70th overall, just behind Yovani Gallardo and Dan Straily. To me that’s crazy because of his ultimate ceiling and he should provide elite level strikeouts and a low walk rate, which will keep his WHIP down. I am going to target him in all of my drafts.

If you are looking for his statistical projections please go here and download my latest projections.