If you like what you’re reading then you will like my 2015 Fantasy Baseball Guide! Last year’s fantasy guide was more than 150,000 words and had 440 player profiles (of hitters and pitchers). My approach to player evaluation is to ask questions about what the player has done in the past and what he may do in the future. I certainly provide a narrative on how I feel a player will perform, but I also ask a lot of open ended questions that I hope will get you thinking about the information I’ve provided.

After a hot start to the season Brandon Belt was sidelined for eight weeks to a broken thumb after getting hit by a pitch. Then in July he was hit in the face by a baseball during batting practice. After the incident he dealt with post-concussion symptoms and subsequently missed 46 games.

Since his 2014 numbers and career numbers were underwhelming he may be a forgotten player for many fantasy owners, but do not be one of those owners. In 2013 his batting average, slugging and isolated power all ticked way up from the previous year. Before 2014 drafts some fantasy analysts were saying Belt was poised for a breakout. For the first 35 games he was poised to do just that as he hit nine home runs with a .264/.317/.504 slash line. After breaking his thumb it was a lost season for him.

In last year’s guide I said Belt has been very underrated because his home ballpark suppressed his numbers. The table below shows his career home-road spits.

For some reason he has a .356 BABIP at home in 760 plate appearances. Also, in the last three seasons his home BABIP has been below .347, which suggests he should have a higher than normal BABIP at home. It’s odd his BABIP would be so much higher at home because the ballpark is an extreme pitchers park and suppresses power for left handed hitters. The only explanation for this is he’s able to have a high BABIP is due to the fact he makes a lot of hard contact. That may sound counterintuitive considering his low home run totals, but his career 13.8% HR/FB rate tells me everything I need to know about the rate of hard contact.

What’s the most interesting about Belt’s 2014 season was he became more aggressive at the plate. Swinging at more pitches, but making less contact. It’s possible those numbers were due to after coming off the first DL stint, but before breaking his thumb he was striking out 27% of the time. That indicates his approach at the plate changed from the very start of the season.

Overall, I believe Belt is post-hype sleeper candidate. He’s not going to provide flashy numbers, but I can certainly see 20-25 home runs with a .260-plus batting average. He’s going to hit in the middle of the Giants lineup (either third or fifth) so he’s going to have a lot of opportunities to score and drive in runs.

My 2015 projection for Belt is 510 ABs, .265 AVG, 21 HRs, 85 RBI, 70 runs and 6 SBs.