Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My 50/50 Lineup

• P: Max Scherzer (WSH) — $12,200
  
• P: Felix Hernandez (SEA) — $11,600
  
• C: Roberto Perez (CLE) — $2,500
  
• 1B: Billy Butler (OAK) — $3,500
  
• 2B: Devon Travis (TOR) — $3,400
  
• 3B: Alex Guerrero (LAD) — $3,100
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Carlos Gonzalez (COL) —$3,200
  
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

With all the rain on the east coast I didn’t feel comfortable picking those players who are playing on the east coast. With a lot of aces going tonight I wanted to go with the two best options despite their cost (trying something new). I debated between Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke, but I went with Hernandez because of the higher strikeout potential.

In regards to my hitting I looked for values. Carlos Gonzalez has been terrible, but he’s batting third and is hitting in front of Troy Tulowitzki. I also debated between Gonzalez and fellow Rockies teammate Corey Dickerson. I wanted to go with Dickerson, but since the plantar fasciitis in his left foot diagnosis was made public Dickerson has made little to no hard-hit contact. Also, with Gonzalez batting third he has a higher chance of getting one more plate appearance. Billy Butler has always mashed lefties and tonight he faces a below average lefty in John Danks.

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Saturday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

If you remove Mat Latos’ first start of the year (his blowup start) he has a 2.94 ERA and 1.277 WHIP. With a WHIP that high his ERA is a mirage, but he’s still a pitcher who has a good opportunity to provide a quality start and with Steven Cishek probably no longer closing games, if Latos has a lead he may actually get a win.

I wrote about Noah Syndergaard’s first start here. Needless to say I believe he’s going to stay in the majors and he’s going to be good enough to be a must start in 12-team mixed leagues.

A lot of fantasy owners are hyping Miguel Gonzalez, but I’ve never bought him as a consistent fantasy starting pitcher option. Gonzalez falls into the class of a Trevor Bauer and C.J. Wilson in that you don’t know what type of results you’re going to get from start to start irregardless of the matchup. The greatest example of this is Gonzalez’s last two starts. In his last start against the Blue Jays he went seven scoreless innings but in the start prior he gave up five earned runs in four innings (at Yankee Stadium). My approach to these types of pitchers is I’ll keep them in my lineup the entire year knowing I have a really good chance of getting the numbers I projected at the end of the year.

I wrote a little more than a week ago I wrote about why I would sell Chris Sale. The biggest reason why I made the recommendation was the big decrease in the usage of the slider. In his next start after I wrote that piece he proceeded to strikeout 11 in eight innings. Since he had so many strikeouts you would assume he threw his slider a lot more, but he did not. Seven of the 11 strikeouts came on the fastball so the worries I had about sale are still there.

Shane Greene has had a very up and down year, but this week he faces the very right handed heavy Brewers lineup. Greene’s problems has always been lefties, but if he’s a lineup primarily against righties he has a great chance to have a big day. Needless to say he’s going to be in my DFS (daily fantasy sports) lineup.

If you haven’t noticed Brett Anderson is still healthy and he’s been pitching pretty well. This week he’s going to be a streamers delight as he’s facing the Giants in San Francisco. Anderson no longer has immense upside, but when I’m streaming pitchers I lean more towards pitchers who limit walks (which is why I rated him one spot higher than Julio Teheran).