Investing & Maybe Fantasy Baseball

The match ups and data you see below were pulled Sunday morning. The data is for the 2015 season. Please be aware the match ups are subject to change. If you have any questions about the rankings hit me up Twitter @MattCommins

These are rankings for the entire week so I give the edge to a lot of fantasy pitchers who pitch twice. Also, the rankings are based on traditional 5×5 categories. I also provide write-ups for a few pitchers. My hope is after you read them you have a better understanding of why I ranked them.

Johnny Cueto is going to miss today’s (Sunday, May 24) start due to elbow soreness. According to Mark Sheldon he’s only going to miss one start and he could have pitched today, but just not at 100 percent. Any time you hear elbow soreness and pitcher in the same sentence it’s never a good thing. The injury and the potential he misses more than one start is the reason why I ranked him lower than he should be.

With Doug Fister on the DL Tanner Roark, not A.J. Cole is going to get Fister’s spot in the rotation. Roark has not thrown more than 50 pitches this year so I have to assume he’ll only throw 80-90 pitches in his first start. If Fister misses a substantial amount of time and Roark were to say in the rotation the rest of the year then he’s a top 50 starting pitcher because of the win potential and underlying stats.

I wrote about Carlos Rodon and Drew Hutchison at Baseball Professor. Hutchison is a two-start pitcher this week and has two slightly above average matchups (home to the White Sox and at the Twins). If he was only starting at the Twins he would be ranked 10-15 spots higher because of the pitcher friendly ballpark.

Mike Bolsinger’s ERA and WHIP are very deceiving, but that does not mean you should automatically overlook what he’s done so far. He’s a ground ball pitcher who does not throw hard so his margin for error is smaller, but he’s still pitching on one of the top five best teams in baseball and is very valuable in quality starts leagues. The Cardinals matchup is not as it seems. In the month of May they are only 17th in the majors in wOBA against righties.

The Padres offense has been very hit or miss this year, which is very similar to the offense last year. In the past month they are last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching, which appears to bode well for Francisco Liriano’s start in San Diego. However, since their best hitters are all right-handed hitters I would think twice before I put Liriano in my lineup.

I love how the Orioles are giving Mike Wright another start. I saw his Major League debut and I was impressed and surprised. The scouting reports said his fastball was 92-94 mph, but his first pitch was 98 mph. Not only did he reach that velocity once, he hit 96-plus multiple times throughout the game. He’s more a ground baller because he throws a two-seamer that sits 91-94 and only throws the hard four-seam fastball when he needs it. What impressed the most about his start was he threw any of his pitches regardless of the count, which is a sign he has confidence in his command. At this point he’s better than Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris and (sadly) Chris Tillman and I hope he gets a long look in the rotation. His OFP (overall future potential) is good number three real life starter. Sadly, his future depends on how well Wright pitches again against the White Sox. If he struggles, he will most likely get sent back to Triple-A.

I finally gave in and I’m going to give daily fantasy sports (DFS) a shot this year. This is my first year playing so there will be bumps in the road, but if you read my fantasy guide you know I am going to be overly prepared before I do something.

I’m playing at Draft Kings so all of my analysis and picks will be based on their scoring system.

My Strategy

To maximize your scoring potential you need to find pitchers who throw a lot of innings, strikeout a lot of batters and have a good chance for a win. Since you also lose points for hitters reaching base (hits, walks, hits batsmen) you want to avoid high strikeout, high walk pitchers (Francisco Liriano for example). Also, if they’re walking a lot of batters their pitch counts will be high, which means they won’t pitch deep into games.

With hitters you want players who will hit for extra bases because the scoring increases progressively for extra base hit type. Also, there are no penalties for hitters making outs so you can draft a Mike Zunino and not worry so much if he goes 0-4 with three strikeouts. Power is emphasized in the scoring so it’s imperative to find players who are going to hit home runs and make hard contact.

Speed is another way to find easy points at a low cost, but you want to make sure you grab players who have a high stolen base success rate because you lost points for every caught stealing.

Last Note

This is the most obvious thing, but it has to be said. You are responsible for your own lineup. It is your decision to play or not play a specific player or in general. I’m giving the best analysis I can and if you agree then, that’s great. I’m going to be wrong sometimes. In fact I’ll probably be wrong a lot because like I said at the start I am a beginner there’s going to be a learning curve.

My 50/50 Lineup

• P: Michael Wacha (STL) — $8,300
  
• P: Johnny Cueto (CIN) — $9,900
  
• C: Brayan Pena (CIN) — $2,700
  
• 1B: James Loney (TB) — $3,600
  
• 2B: Danny Valencia (TOR) — $3,000
  
• 3B: Josh Donaldson (TOR) — $4,700
  
• SS: Hidden
  
• OF: Andrew McCutchen (PIT) —$4,800
  
• OF: Hidden
  
• OF: Hidden

There were certainly a lot of pitching matchups to choose from, but I went with Johnny Cueto and Michael Wacha because they were the safest matchups. Cueto is one of the 3-5 best starting pitchers in the majors and he’s playing in a great pitcher’s park. If I lose because one of the best pitchers doesn’t do well I can live with that. I’m still not buying the Royals offense; they’ve gotten lucky with the BABIP and the well-hit average is low. The Mets are struggling to score runs and Wacha has transformed himself into a ground baller with the increased usage of the cutter. The strikeouts may not be there, but I can see seven innings of 0-1 earned runs.

The biggest reason why I’m using Brayan Pena is he’s batting second and in front of Joey Votto (and I think by now the price point is implied). I almost went with Kyle Blanks, but I couldn’t avoid an opportunity to use James Loney against Mike Foltynewicz who cannot get lefties out.  I went with the Josh Donaldson and Danny Valencia because they both mash lefties and I’m not totally buying Hector Santiago, especially in that ballpark. For the past month Andrew McCutchen’s well-hit average is on par with the previous two years. He’s back and his price point is “low” considering he’s facing Ricky Nolasco.